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Adam Blencowe tries to put the Kiwis’ Group 1 prospects into perspective
La Crique does not quite hold the lofty rating of Melody Belle but she is well-positioned to emulate the 14-time Group 1 winner and claim Saturday's Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) at Flemington.
That's the belief of Racing And Sports senior handicapper Adam Blencowe, who said La Crique repeating her peak rating would be enough to win the $1 million Group 1 unless a rival enters previously unchartered territory.
La Crique pulled a figure of 116+ – the plus indicating a figure that suggests scope to rate even higher – for her last-start win in the Group 1 Arrowfield Stud Plate (1600m), which is just short of the 118 rating Melody Belle brought to Australia, which she also ran to win the 2019 Empire Rose.
The two winners since, Shout The Bar and Colette, rated 111 and 115 respectively, while no winner other than Melody Belle has rated higher than 116 in the past decade.
"La Crique's Racing And Sports rating is slightly superior to the winning average of the Empire Rose and at the top of the ratings going into this year," Blencowe said.
"She is part of a top notch set of mares in New Zealand at the moment – the top five rated horses in New Zealand in 2022 are all mares – and we should be comfortable taking them on face value with three of that five having already confirmed their talents in Australia.
"Entriviere and Levante– both rated 118 – have measured up in Group 1s in Australia, the former when placed in the Doomben 10,000 and the latter when winning the standside race in the Newmarket which was won overall by the 115-rated Roch 'N' Horse."
La Crique's rating is one pound superior to the next highest-rated Empire Rose runners, Icebath, Nimalee and Kissonallforcheeks, who are all rated 115.
La Crique's compatriot She's Licketysplit faces a much greater ratings challenge with the daughter of Turn Me Loose needing to go to a new level to join I Am A Star and Shoals on the honour roll.
I Am A Star went into the Empire Rose rated 112 and ran that same figure to win, while Shoals ran 115 off a previous best of 112.
"Back-to-back winners in 2016 and 2017 will have many preaching about the hot record of fillies but the 13 fillies who have run in the race this century have gone into the Empire Rose with an average rating of 113," Blencowe said.
"She's Licketysplit is rated 107, so below the average and would appear, given that, to have her work cut out."