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The much awaited return clash between quality three-year-olds Smart Missile and Helmet takes centre stage at Rosehill this afternoon in the Group 1 Golden Rose, a race since its inception in 2003 has proved a very good guide to subsequent three-year-old Classics
Photo by Racing and Sports
Despite a small six-runner field, the race presents punters with a fascinating dilemma. Two other runners that ooze untapped potential are Aeronautical and Manawanui.
Add to them the very talented Foxwedge and punters have five very different live chances to consider as genuine winning prospects.
I signalled early this season that the current crop of three-year-olds are profiling as an above average crop and the 2011 Golden Rose field profiles as the strongest renewal yet.
Which is quite a big statement considering some past winners of the race such as Group performers Denman, Duporth, Forensics, Paratroopers and In Top Swing - In fact the race has produced 15 subsequent Group 1 winners. The 2011 renewal looks set to add to that tally.
The early betting has Smart Missile a very firm favourite ahead of Helmet but on Timeform ratings there is not a “struck match” between the pair, both rated at 123.
Unbeaten in three starts, Smart Missile has always looked well above average. His last to first win in the Run To The Rose over 1200m a fortnight ago was a breathtaking performance. Almost to a man, punters had written the son of Fastnet Rock off as a winning hope as the field entered the home straight.
However once balanced up by big race jockey Glen Boss, Smart Missile ran through his gears to come from what seemed to be an impossible position to reel in Foxwedge close to the line.
The colt returned a new master Timeform rating of 123 making him the highest ever rated winner of the Run To The Rose.
But that was nothing new for Smart Missile who also returned above average ratings when winning the Breeders Plate on debut then the Todman Stakes defeating Sepoy in the lead up to the Golden Slipper.
Few will argue there looks to be untapped potential in Smart Missile but punters should be aware that he will be breaking new ground today.It will be the first time in his brief career that Smart Missile will have raced second up from a spell and contested a distance longer than 1200m.
Whilst I am not expecting these factors to be significant, it does serve to demonstrate a point of difference with his main rival Helmet who does tick all the form boxes.
While Smart Missile has yet to win at Group 1 level, Helmet is a two-time juvenile Group 1 winner in the AJC Sires' Produce Stakes (1400m) and Champagne Stakes (1600m).
Helmet is also a second up winner and is a winner on good to heavy tracks.
Perhaps the only chink in the armour of Helmet has been his erratic behaviour, almost throwing away two races in his juvenile career including the Group 1 Champagne Stakes.
Like Smart Missile, Helmet comes into the Golden Rose with just the Run To The Rose run under his belt, but also like his rival, that run should have improved him considerably, condition wise for this afternoon.
Turning for home in the Run For The Rose, Helmet was about a length in front of Smart Missile, but that galloper had too much acceleration for him in the closing stages eventually finishing third just over a length behind.
However Helmet had to concede a kilo and a half in weight to Smart Missile and was slightly blocked for clear running in the closing stages. It could be argued there would not have been much between them at level weights and a clear run.
Under the circumstances, Helmet's rating of 120 was a solid effort and not far off his master 123 figure.
Helmet's first up run was reminiscent of his first up run last preparation, the only time he was beaten in that campaign. On that occasion he also got a long way back but ran home well for third, but then improved his ratings markedly second up.I think the key to this afternoon's race could be the addition of blinkers to Helmet and the likely lack of genuine pace.
Helmet won both his Group 1 races travelling on the pace and I can see him getting an uncontested lead here.
If race rider Kerrin McEvoy can settle him and “steal” a cheap sectional or two, it could make the task of the back markers very difficult to run Helmet down who is already proven at 1400m – something that may prove a deciding factor.
Another promising colt Foxwedge (Timeform rated 119) has clashed twice previously with Smart Missile but is yet to finish ahead of that colt.
Admittedly the gap each time has been small but one attribute that may aid his cause today is his ability to travel on the speed in what looks to be shaping as a race with slow early tempo.
Foxwedge looked good winning the San Domenico Stakes (1100m) fresh up and then appeared to have every chance when cut down late by Smart Missile in the Run To The Rose.
The lightly raced Manawanui (Timeform rated 115p) who has won three of his four race starts faces his biggest test to date. The gelding's form does not read as strong as the top rated gallopers just yet but this fellow has enormous scope for improvement.
His only run this time in resulted in a four length thumping of the Up And Coming Stakes field at Warwick Farm in heavy ground three weeks back – a run that will have improved him sharply for today.
If there is an upset, Manawanui will cause it.The Lionel Cohen-trained Aeronautical (Timeform rated 106) has also been in dominant form in lesser grade. He comes into the race as a winner of his last two starts, the most recent at Randwick five weeks back over 1200m by three and a half lengths.
Again he is an improving type but will need to find plenty to match motors with the more highly rated runners.
Summing up, both Smart Missile and Helmet come into the race equal top rated and with upside. In theory the race should be a dead heat but at the end of the day, punters searching for value will side with Helmet as the analysis does not support such a huge disparity in the available odds between the pair.
Enjoy a most intriguing race.