3 minute read
A high quality field of super fit gallopers will do battle in this afternoon's Group 1 Epsom Handicap over the famous Randwick mile.
Photo by Racing and Sports
With part of the unsafe Grandstand roofing removed all is now set for the 2011 renewal of one of Australia's oldest handicap races. First run in 1865, the Epsom gained group 1 status in 1979 and has been won by many of Australia's outstanding gallopers.
This year will see a near capacity field of seventeen runners line up with the winner well hidden in what looks to be a very evenly graded affair.
I like the Pat Webster-trained Thankgodyou'rehere who has hit top form at the right time. Drawn beautifully in two, the son of Secret Savings comes into the race third up from a spell and in winning form having scored easily in the Gr 3 Bill Ritchie Handicap over 1400m at Rosehill last start.
Importantly Thankgodyou'rehere reached a new peak Timeform rating of 116 winning the Bill Ritchie and tumbles a hefty three-and-a-half kilos this afternoon which gives him an attractive “at the weights” predictive rating.
The step up to 1600m should present no issues for this improving gelding who has already scored over this trip back in November last year impressively winning the Gr 3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup. Nor should the return to Randwick where he has two wins and two placings from just four runs at the track.
Thankgodyou'rehere will also have some excellent weight turnarounds in his favour compared to favourite and top weight Sincero. Two runs back, the pair met in the Tramway Handicap with a length between them at the finish but Thankgodyou'rehere meets that galloper a kilo-and-a-half better at the weights today.
Veteran rider Rod Quinn who has ridden Thankgodyou'rehere in all but one of his eighteen starts but has recorded all eight wins on him will be searching for his first Epsom winner at his eleventh mount in the feature.
The closest Quinn has come to winning the Epsom is finishing in third place twice, Crawl (2003) and Never Despair (1979).
Given there is not likely to be an abundance of speed in the race, I can see Quinn adopting similar tactics to those he used last start where he travelled handy throughout.
Despite a few negatives, race favourite Sincero who boasts a super strike rate of eleven wins from fifteen starts will still be hard to beat.
Sincero is a “winner” and winners can and do achieve feats in races that lesser horses will not. Even though he has to carry top weight from one barrier I am not discounting him, even though his odds are sligthly cramped.
The reason barrier one is seen as a disadvantage is the fact he is a big striding horse who may not appreciate be “hemmed” away on the rails through the early stages of the race.
The fact there is no recognised speed in the race is likely to exacerbate the problem further.
In the last 20 years just two horses have carried 57kgs or more to victory in the Epsom Handicap, Filante (57kgs in 1996) and Racing To Win (57kgs in 2006).
Interestingly both those gallopers bought slightly higher Timeform ratings into the race than Sincero, Filante 125 and Racing To Win 126.
Sincero will take a 124p into the race this afternoon with scope for improvement, so on that score alone he cannot be discounted.
Sincero has been in sparkling form this campaign. After winning the Stradbroke Handicap in June, his first group 1 success, Sincero had an ease up before resuming with a strong win in the Tramway Handicap under 58kgs, quickly followed by a gutsy effort when taking his second Gr 1, the weight for age George Main Stakes over 1500m at Rosehill.
Sincero drops a kilo-and-a-half in weight on that effort but historically speaking, he will become just the fifth horse in history to complete the George Main Stakes-Epsom double. The last being Racing To Win in 2006.
Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse will be aiming for a record equalling seventh win in the Epsom Handicap – joining her late father T J Smith on that tally if one of her three entries More Strawberries, King Lionheart or Light Brigade are successful.
Of the trio I prefer Light Brigade a lightly raced four-year-old who has raced twice since a spell.
After a poor effort when resuming, he quickly indicated he was not far off top form just going under in the Gr 3 Cameron Handicap (1500m) at Newcastle 17 days ago.
Light Brigade has raced just eleven times but displayed plenty of ability as a three-year-old with a close third to Ilovethiscity in the Gr 1 Randwick Guineas and a close up fourth in the Gr 1 Rosehill Guineas behind Jimmy Choux.
A repeat of either of those Timeform ratings today would see him take a hand in the finish, especially the Randwick Guineas form, a race that has already produced the last two Epsom winners, Captain Sonador and Rock Kingdom.
Another strong pointer to Light Brigade's chances is his excellent record third up that normally coincides with a sharp rise in his Timeform ratings.
With top lightweight Melbourne rider Craig Newitt taking the ride for Waterhouse, this galloper is one to consider at real value.
Melbourne visitor Red Colossus is one of two Greg Eurell-trained gallopers to contest the race. Eurell will also run in-form mare Pinker Pinker.
Red Colossus has been a slow maturing galloper, but the now five-year-old looks to have taken another step up in his Timeform ratings profile going to 119 with his excellent third in the Gr 2 Dato Tan Nim Chan Stakes over 1600m at Moonee Valley last time out.
That was his second up run from a spell and further improvement is expected today.
The Chris Waller stable has enjoyed considerable success with imported European gallopers and former French galloper Foreteller looms as a definite chance here with a light weight.
Foreteller has raced seven times in Australia for two wins but at this juncture 1600m looks the ideal distance.
Coming off a freshen up last start he ran home strongly from near last over 1300m at Rosehill in the Sebring Stakes for a close up fifth.
Today he will appreciate the wide open spaces of Randwick and the step back up in distance with Corey Brown in the saddle should see a further improvement in his Timeform rating.
The race also contains several well performed mares including Doncaster Handicap winner Sacred Choice, Pinker Pinker, Secret Admirer, More Strawberries and Raspberries.
I realise they have no idea of this statistic but just 13 mares have been successful since 1865, the last was the Bart Cummings-trained La Neige in 1976.
That does put a different perspective on their chances but it would be unwise to ignore them on that statistic alone.
2010 Gr 1 Flight Stakes winner Secret Admirer has the best Timeform rating “at the weights” and she can bounce back if assessed on her best form.
Two runs back she was narrowly beaten by Sincero in the Tramway however she disappointed last Saturday when well fancied but the prospect of softer footing this afternoon for the daughter of Dubawi plays to her strengths.
Enjoy the race.