3 minute read
The 2012 renewal of the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield this afternoon has assembled a good field of in-form lightly raced juveniles, some it would seem with plenty more to give.
However the dilemma for punters is to find those in the field most likely to take that next step against the strongest opposition they have yet raced against. Not an easy task when all bar one of the 20 accepted runners have three or less career starts, and only two runners in the field have raced at today's distance of 1200m.
Prior to the barrier draw, the Gai Waterhouse-trained filly No Looking Back had form in the strongest juvenile race run so far this season – the Magic Millions Classic over 1200m held on the Gold Coast in January.
However when she drew barrier 19 (will start from 15 after scratchings) that changed the dynamics just a little as she will more than likely be required to use additional energy to overcome the disadvantage of being drawn one from the outside.
Filles No Looking Back (Timeform rated 114) and Samaready (115) head the Timeform ratings for the Blue Diamond and although history does not reflect kindly on the fairer sex as winners of this feature taking just three of the last 13 renewals, it has to be said that above average fillies do have an advantage receiving two kilos off the males.
Among the 15 fillies to have taken out the Blue Diamond since 1982 are such brilliant types as Alinghi, Lady Jakeo, Riva Diva, Courtza, Bounding Away, Love A Show and Black Shoes.
An analysis of the historical Timeform ratings for fillies going into a Blue Diamond reveals that a figure of 115 is about the level required in an “average” year, basically when there are no dominating males, for example like last year when crack colt Sepoy simply dominated the lead up races winning the Blue Diamond Preview and Preludes and joining Bel Esprit (2002) and Rancher (1982) as the only horses to achieve that feat.
The Timeform ratings range required to win the Blue Diamond Stakes is between 116 and 121 and although we do not have any horse in the race within that range at present, the two aforementioned fillies are sitting right on the cusp.
Samaready trained locally by Mick Price and well drawn in barrier eight, she will come in one after scratching, rates as the horse to beat.
It is hard not to be impressed with her improvement in performance between her debut run in December and her outstanding win in the Prelude over 1100m a fortnight back.
Vast improvement between runs in a given for juveniles and this filly went from 105 to 115 in the space of those only two career starts and given the ease of her Prelude victory looks to have more to give.
There is no doubt she was helped to some degree by the fast early speed in the Prelude but there is every likelihood that she again will experience a fast early pace this afternoon as there is speed drawn either side of her.
In the Prelude Samaready travelled just off the speed and although covered ground turning into the straight, unleashed a devastating sprint in the closing stages to win comfortably by over three lengths.
I can see no reason why she will not improve fitness wise with that run under her belt and the fact she is locally trained is also a major factor in her favour.Samaready will be favourite and although only four favourites have been successful since 1990, this filly has the right credentials to head the market. The filly also history on her side as a last start winner and Prelude winner. 22 of the last 30 Blue Diamond winners have been last start winners and 12 of those have won the Prelude.
A win by Samaready would be just compensation for trainer Mick Price who actually won the Blue Diamond in 2003 with another filly Roedean only to subsequently lose the race after she returned a positive post-race swab.
It is unusual for a juvenile to race in the Magic Millions Classic then run in the Blue Diamond, but I am not prepared to dismiss No Looking Back even though the Magic Millions 2YO Classic has only produced one winner of the Blue Diamond Stakes, but that is from just a handful of runners.
In the last 20 years just ten Magic Millions runners including four winners of the Classic have raced in the Blue Diamond with only Mahassin in 1990 being successful. Mahassin had run second to Dancer's Joy in the fillies division of the Magic Millions as it was divided back then, before going back to Melbourne and causing an upset in the Blue Diamond.
The Magic Millions runners to place, who both ran second, were Yachtie (1992) and Testa Rossa (1999).
Interestingly Gai has tried this path previously with handy filly How Funny. In 2003 she was second in the Magic Millions but then failed on a heavy Blue Diamond surface before going back to Sydney where she was narrowly beaten in the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes.
As I said at the outset, the Magic Millions Classic is the form race for juveniles thus far this season and as history now shows, No Looking Back after winning was relegated to second place in the Classic upon protest from her stablemate Driefontein who incidentally franked that form line with a strong win in the Widden Stakes last Saturday.
Provided she gets luck early in the race, No Looking Back is very capable of improving her current Timeform rating of 114 which brings her into the range of ratings required to win the event.
No Looking Back is likely to be “over the odds” because of her barrier draw but she looks the value bet in the race.Leading Blue Diamond Stakes rider Dwayne Dunn who has ridden a record four winners of the race will partner the David Hayes' trained filly Mama's Choice, an impressive debut winner in the Chairman's Stakes at Caulfield over 1100m three weeks back. She ran to a Timeform rating of 108p and looked very much a progressive type.
Trainer David Hayes knows what it takes to win the Blue Diamond being the most successful trainer in the history of the race with five previous winners.
He also has promising gelding General Rippa in the field, another impressive debut winner in the Prelude two weeks back, coming from last in a small field and overpowering his rivals in the closing stages.
He faces a harder task here racing in a bigger field but the additional distance will be to his advantage.
I would also not discount The Travelling Man and Formidable in what is a very even race away from the top two fillies.Ends...