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Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse had a quiet time on the first day of The Championships but all that could change today when she saddles up The Offer in the group one Sydney Cup over 3200m.
The Waterhouse cupboard of possible contenders for The Championships has been uncharacteristically bare and losing Melbourne and Australian Cup winner Fiorente through injury did not help, but in The Offer she has another former European galloper capable of reaching the elite level down under.
The Offer had three early runs for Waterhouse without troubling the judge but after being gelded he has turned into a different horse winning three of seven subsequent starts including the G3 Manion Cup over 2400m at Rosehill and G2 The Chairman’s Handicap over 2600m at Randwick last Saturday.
Both wins were achieved with plenty in hand thereby giving support to the fact he has more to give this afternoon. And that is not good news for his rivals, many of whom he meets on better or slightly worse weight terms.
The Offer currently sits with a Timeform rating of 120, an improvement of five pounds on his best European form courtesy of his emphatic win last Saturday, in a race which has traditionally been the best lead up for the Sydney Cup supplying five of the last six Cup winners (No Wine No Song 2008, Ista Kareem 2009, Jessicabeel 2010, Stand To Gain 2011 and Mourayan 2013)
The Offer carried 57.5 kilos to win The Chairman’s Handicap by over two lengths and drops to 55.0 kilos today after weights were raised 2 kilos.
On Timeform weight adjusted ratings, The Offer is clearly the horse to beat and it is hard to find a chink in the argument, with perhaps a drying track the only issue as The Offer is clearly superior in wet ground.
Stable rider Tommy Berry, unbeaten in two rides atop the son on Montjeu, retains the ride and he will enjoy tremendous public support as he endeavours to post the first Championships group one win for himself and Waterhouse.
For Berry it could be a case of third time lucky in the Sydney Cup, the young hoop was unplaced atop Brave Lancer in 2009 and Older Than Time in 2012.
Waterhouse has already one Sydney Cup amongst her 120 Australian group one winners thanks to Linesman in 1997, her only Cup winner from 24 runners in the race.
Melbourne visitor Sertorius looks better suited this afternoon, especially facing the prospect of a firmer track than the “bottomless” Randwick last Saturday.
A slow maturing son of Galileo, Sertorius burst onto the staying scene last spring winning the Bendigo Cup (2400m), then going under narrowly to Precedence in the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m) before an impressive victory in the G2 Zipping Classic (2400m) at Caulfield.
Sertorius has had five runs this campaign and while all have been sound his ratings profile suggests he has definitely gone to another level but finding it hard to post a win.
Sertorius currently runs off a Timeform rating of 120 this campaign, a figure he has run to twice already this time in, the most recent when fourth behind Silent Achiever in the G1 BMW at Rosehill.
That was a messy race for Sertorius, regular rider Ryan Maloney was forced to go forward early rather than be trapped wide and after reaching the lead after turning for home held on well to finish fourth just under three lengths from the winner.
Then last Saturday in The Chairman’s Handicap he found the 59kgs and the very heavy going against him.
This afternoon Sertorius drops three kilos to 56kgs, the lightest weight he has carried in six starts.
Despite being on trial at the 3200m, Sertorius looks much better placed today and cannot be taken lightly.
On the positive side, in past years both the BMW and Zipping Classic have been reliable guides for the Sydney Cup, the BMW providing seven of the last 20 Cup winners and the Zipping Classic three winners from a limited number of runners, the most recent Cup winner to come through the Zipping Classic the previous spring was last year’s winner Mourayan.
The BMW stats are also relevant for the chances of former Irish-trained mare Voleuse De Coeurs.
Formerly with the Irish training wizard Dermot Weld, Voleuse De Coeurs was purchased at the last minute by Australian interests to contest last year’s Melbourne Cup, a race she subsequently ran tenth in beaten eight lengths behind Fiorente.
Now with Michael Moroney, Voleuse De Coeurs has raced twice this preparation, finishing fifth both times in the G1 Australian Cup then the BMW.
Voleuse De Coeurs came to Australia after routing a classy field in the G1 Irish St Leger by six lengths that included Ahzeemah and Red Cadeaux and earned her a Timeform rating of 122.
In all her three runs here she is currently running around ten pounds under that performance and today looks to be an important fork in the road for her career wise down under.
Unlike most irish gallopers, Voleuse De Coeurs is more a firm track horse and was not entirely suited in the heavy ground of the BMW, a race that she was very heavily supported to win.
Today she should strip fitter, faces a weaker line up as well as the possibility of firmer footing, all factors that should enable her to return a rating close to her best but the top weight of 58kgs is certainly cause for concern.
Since 1900 only one mare has carried more than Makybe Diva’s 2004 Sydney Cup winning weight of 55.5kgs and that was the legendary Wakeful in 1902, that mare lumping 60.5kgs to victory.
Lightly raced kiwi stayer Who Shot Thebarman is the unknown in the race.
The five-year-old has only started nine times but has won six of those including the Auckland Cup over 3200m last start.
Who Shot Thebarman continues to make steady progress in his Timeform ratings profile and from that angle it is difficult to predict just what level he might reach this afternoon.
However even taking a conservative estimate at what his potential rating might be, it is sufficient to have him amongst the winning chances.
One thing is for sure, the 3200m will not worry him, nor will the track conditions as he has won on all types of ground.
Last start Who Shot Thebarman showed plenty of courage to win the Auckland Cup and at his start prior took out the Avondale Gold Cup.
While Who Shot Thebarman has not started for 42 days, that should not be a concern as he has a history of performing well off long breaks. Of more concern is the record of Auckland Cup runners in the Sydney Cup.
In the last 20 years no Auckland Cup runner or winner has been successful in the Sydney Cup, the race providing four placegetters only (Castletown 1992, Zabeat 2006, Pentathon 2008 and Solid Billing 2011) and even more significant is the fact that since the Auckland Cup’s inception in 1950, only the great kiwi stayer Apollo Eleven in 1973 has been able to complete the double.
Other chances in a most interesting Sydney Cup are three-year-old Australian Derby runner-up Tupac Amaru and former UK galloper Brigantin now under the care of Chris Waller.