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The powerful global Godolphin operation looks set to add another Caulfield Cup trophy to the mantle piece this afternoon courtesy of the rapidly improving Reset gelding Hauraki.
Godolphin has enjoyed considerable success on both sides of the equator in the last twelve months but a win in the Caulfield Cup would cap off a memorable start for newly appointed Head Australian trainer John O’Shea.
O’Shea has only been at the helm for a little over eighteen months but in that time has already captured five group one wins for the Sheikh Mohammed owned operation.Godolphin had their famous silks carried across the line first in the 2008 Caulfield Cup when All The Good prepared by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy came with a late burst.
With ever increasing quality of overseas raiders arriving on our shores each year to tackle the Cups and now the Cox Plate, competition has never been stronger - but today could see the locals mount a strong offensive to ensure all three prizes don’t go off shore again as they did for the first time in 2014.This afternoon’s Caulfield Cup is probably the strongest on record depth-wise, with perhaps only one or two of the 18 runners not having earned a spot on recent form. There is no doubt Complacent and Magic Hurricane should have been in the field but that is a discussion for another day.
That said it is surprising that there are no last start winners in the race – something that has only occurred once previously in the last 25 years when Mummify was successful in 2003.This year between New Zealand and Australia, the staying four-year-olds of both sexes look to have solid claims in today’s Caulfield Cup with Timeform weight adjusted ratings leaning towards the local Godolphin galloper Hauraki with the edge over star kiwi stayer Mongolian Khan.
The ATC Derby form line at Randwick last April where Mongolian Khan just held out Hauraki looks to provide the best clue for today’s Caulfield Cup outcome.Hauraki has been lightly raced with three wins from ten starts but the progression he has made in his Timeform ratings profile last season and this campaign is impressive - improving 34 pounds in his last campaign, strolling home in the Tulloch Stakes (2000m) before getting to less than length of Mongolian Khan in the Derby reaching a new personal best Timeform rating of 120.
Then in three runs this preparation he has taken his Timeform rating to a PB of 124 last start when narrowly beaten in the Craven Stakes by stable mate Complacent.Having his fourth run back from a spell is significant for Hauraki as last campaign that run corresponded with his effortless display in the Tulloch Stakes.
Not only does Hauraki have the best Timeform weight adjusted rating in the field but he comes into the race on the back of a new PB which is a strong factor by itself and one that is found in more than half of all major race winners.Historically Hauraki also profiles positively.
Recent history shows that placegetters in the ATC Derby have a good record in the Caulfield Cup – Descarado who was second in the 2010 Derby being the last to win at Caulfield but Monaco Consul (2010 - 3rd and 3rd), Roman Emperor (2009 – Won and 2nd), Nom Du Jeu (2008 – Won and 2nd), Railings (2005 – 3rd and won), Mummify (2003 – 3rd and won) and Sky Heights (1999 – Won and Won) are just some recent examples of the significance of the ATC Derby for the Caulfield Cup.Hauraki and Mongolian Khan will go into this afternoon’s Caulfield Cup with “bare” Timeform ratings of 124 – both will improve again but Hauraki receives a weight advantage of 2kgs that will swing the adjusted ratings in his favour.
However his task will not be straightforward as New Zealand and Australian Derby winner Mongolian Khan has built up an impressive record in a short career to date winning seven of his twelve race starts but significantly unbeaten in his only two starts over 2400m.A characteristic of Mongolian Khan’s two 2400m wins has been his tenacity at the finish in both the New Zealand Derby and the Australian Derby - when staring defeat in the eyes he got off the canvass both times and was strong on the line.
Four-year-olds are the most successful age group in the Caulfield Cup with the two most significant lead up races being the Australian Derby and ATC Oaks.But as we have seen from above, it is not necessarily the winner of the ATC Derby that prevails in the following spring, however Mongolian Khan is no ordinary winner of the Australian Derby. He made history with that win as he became the first New Zealand Derby winner to win the Australian Derby since the mighty Bonecrusher (1985/6) – the only two to do so in over 50 years.
While the New Zealand Derby has not produced a single Caulfield Cup winner in the last 25 years, it has however produced talented stayers who have gone very close.In that period, 12 horses have contested the New Zealand Derby before contesting the Caulfield Cup as four-year-olds, three of them placing. These were Veandercross (1992), Nom Du Jeu (2008) and Monaco Consul (2010).
Taking a line through Bonecrusher, it is clear that only a very good three-year-old can achieve the feat of winning both the NZ and ATC Derbies and Mongolian Khan is certainly that, ending his three-year-old season with a Timeform rating 121p, below Bonecrusher at the same stage.Mongolian Khan will also be fourth up into the Caulfield Cup today and also comes off a PB Timeform rating last Saturday when luck went against him in the Caulfield Stakes running to 124.
If successful Mongolian Khan will emulate Sky Heights who in 1999 was the last four-year-old to complete the ATC Derby – Caulfield Cup double.Two other local Classic winners who rate well on weight adjusted Timeform ratings are VRC Oaks winner Set Square and ATC Oaks winner Gust of Wind.
Southern Speed was the last four-year-old mare to win the Caulfield Cup but she was a late developer coming through the Adelaide Oaks trail, whereas other mares to have raced well in recent times in the Caulfield Cup have ATC & VRC Oaks form.For example Rising Romance in 2014 who had won the ATC Oaks then went on to be just beaten by Admire Rakti at Caulfield the following spring, Lucia Valentina (2014 2nd and 3rd), Royal Descent (2013 Won and 5th), Dear Demi (2013 2nd and 3rd), Daffodil (2009 Won and 4th) and Republic Lass (2002 Won and 3rd).
Even though you have to go back to 1996 (Arctic Scent) to find the last four-year-old mare to win a Caulfield Cup after coming off the ATC Oaks at three, they do have a sound record of racing well in the Caulfield Cup, which is why Gust Of Wind could be a real value prospect this year..The record of four-year-old mares in the Caulfield Cup is quite good. In the last 40 years they have a participation rate of around 15% and a winning strike rate of about 24%. This does auger well for them, provided they have the ratings to support their claims.
The average winning Timeform rating of the last three four-year-old mares to win the Caulfield Cup is 116, although the most recent — Southern Speed in 2011 — rated 118.In 2013 third placed Dear Demi rated 118 and fifth placed Royal Descent rated 119 —both figures exactly in line with their VRC and ATC Oaks wins respectively.
In 2014, both Rising Romance and Lucia Valentina come from the ATC Oaks with Timeform ratings of 116p, with the promise of more to come – similar to Gust Of Wind this year.Gust Of Wind has been patiently handled but has displayed plenty of promise putting together three wins including the ATC Oaks (2400m) from just eight career runs.
Gust Of Wind posted a Timeform rating of 114p winning the ATC Oaks which is not far off the 116 average of the last three 4YO mare Cup winners. Significantly she has already reached that level in three runs back this campaign where she has not enjoyed a lot of luck – her 2.5 lengths 11th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last start a good case in point.The VRC Oaks does not have as nearly a good historical record in the Caulfield Cup, but Set Square does come into today’s Cup with a slightly superior Timeform ratings profile and therefore a slightly higher weight adjusted rating also including a new PB last start.
Her three runs back from a spell have all been excellent and there was much to like about her strong third in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last start from which she drops 3.5kgs this afternoon.Japanese stayers Fame Game and Hokko Brave will need the race to unfold to suit their strengths but both are classy stayers and we saw what Admire Rakti did last year when class prevailed.
While Fame Game would appear better suited around the larger Flemington course over 3200m, Hokko Brave will be better placed at today’s trip of 2400m.Hokko Brave has raced just four times in the last 12 months and last won a race742 days ago. While group 2 placed his only wins to date have been in non-Stakes or allowance type races but his Timeform ratings still keep him in the frame.
Enjoy a fascinating Caulfield Cup renewal.Ends…