3 minute read
A capacity field of quality weight for age performers do battle in this afternoon’s Longines 2016 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick with last year’s winner Criterion aiming for back to back wins.
And while Criterion on his best form and Timeform ratings from last year if reproduced here would certainly rate as the horse to beat, it is the former UK galloper The United States that rates best on strong recent form.
After starting his career under Aidan O’Brien in Ireland, now with Team Williams, The United States has improved in each of his Australian campaigns, graduating from a handicapper in the spring to weight for age performer this autumn.During the spring, The United States best performance was a win over subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Prince Of Penzance in the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m where he ran to a new Timeform peak rating of 116.
The United States then failed in the Melbourne Cup and was spelled, resuming with an eye catching fifth in the G1 Memsie Stakes behind Turn Me Loose.He followed that up with a close second in a fast run G2 Blamey Stakes over 1600m at Flemington before venturing to Sydney for the G1 Ranvet Stakes over 2000m.
After a tardy start, The United States settled near the rear of the field and in a slowly run race this was not ideal. However under new rider Kerrin McEvoy The United States navigated a path through the field in the straight charging to the lead 250m from home then holding off a determined challenge by Hauraki who opposes him again today running to a new Timeform personal best rating of 124.Following that win connections had to part with a late entry fee for today’s race. But judging by the progress he has made combined with an upward ratings profile in three runs this campaign, The United States looks set to go to a new level again today.
The spacious Randwick track is sure to suit this bold strider and Kerrin McEvoy should be able to produce him at the right time.Just five horses since the inception of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in 1954 have completed the Ranvet Stakes double – back to back, the last Desert War in 2007. Eremein (2006), Grand Armee (2005), Veandercross (1993) and Tulloch (1958) also did the double.
Clearly the double is not easy to achieve but the Ranvet Stakes does look to be the correct form line for today and The United States heads the betting at odds around $4.60 mark.The Godolphin galloper Hauraki, like The United States has been in excellent form this preparation – each of his three runs have been full of merit.
In his first two runs back over shorter trips in the Apollo Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes he bumped into Winx but ran well all the same placing third on both occasions.The Ranvet Stakes was his last run and that race did look to be his opportunity for his first group one success.
However it was not to be. After being slightly held up for clear running in the early stages of the home straight, when clear Hauraki looked likely to overhaul The United States and had ample time to do so, in the end failing by three quarters of a length but running to his peak Timeform rating of 122.Hauraki has always displayed potential. At three he was runner up to Mongolian Khan in the ATC Derby and last campaign although failing to win did push stable mate Complacent to a nose in the Craven Plate at this track and distance.
Hauraki will have to find extra today if he is to turn the tables on The United States but his Derby second at three shows he can improve at his fourth run back from a spell. And he will certainly need to do that again.Grand galloper Criterion cannot be left out of contention, especially if the track is wet, as it was last year when he easily won this race from Red Cadeaux.
After that win, Criterion campaigned in Hong Kong then in the UK at Royal Ascot and York before returning to Australia where he won the Caulfield Stakes, finished second in Cox Plate behind Winx and ran a gallant third in the Melbourne Cup.Criterion has raced twice since a spell and although his first up run was poor, last start he was much better when a distant third in the Ranvet Stakes behind The United States and Hauraki.
Criterion has plenty to find, ratings wise if he is to turn the tables on that pair but he is a quality galloper with the ability to bounce back to peak form at any time.Australian Cup and BMW winner Preferment rates next best. The way he has performed in three runs this time has him in peak form and ratings. Preferment ran to his peak 123 Timeform rating in winning the BMW but has to come back to 2000m here which is some slight concern.
Champion rider Hugh Bowman rides again and from a low draw is certain to be in the race for a long way. There have been seven horses to complete the Australian Cup – Queen Elizabeth Stakes since it was first run in 1954, the last Lonhro in 2003.Hauraki’s stable mate It’s Somewhat is an interesting runner. Another former UK galloper, he comes into the race winning at his last two outings, last start in the Neville Sellwood Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill.
That winning performance earned It’s Somewhat a new career peak rating of 120p and the manner of the win suggests he has more to come.Third place in the prestigious Eclipse Stakes (2000m) at Sandown in the UK, It’s Somewhat was only third up last start so stepping up from 1500m to 2000m it was no surprise to see him weaken over the concluding stages, although he was a comfortable enough winner on the line.
No doubt John O’Shea will have him fitter for today and it would be no surprise to see him feature at the finish.Enjoy a classic renewal.
ATC Oaks
The 2016 ATC Oaks is an intriguing puzzle with a clash of formlines making for what looks a very competitive edition of the fillies classic.
At the top of early markets sits Jameka, the VRC Oaks winner who ran a solid second in the ATC Derby last week. That run will stand her in good stead for the Oaks as it did for Danedri, Grand Archway and Sunday Joy who all used the Derby as a springboard to Oaks success in the last 20 years.
Danendri and Grand Archway had also come through the VRC Oaks in the springtime with Grand Archway one of only two, along with Serenade Rose, to do the double in the last 20 years.
Danendri, Grand Archway and Serenade Rose are three of the five favourites that have won the Oaks in the last 22 years in a race that has not been a particularly happy hunting ground for the market elect.
History might indicate that Jameka is too well found in the betting and there are credible alternatives to the favourite.
The Storm Queen is the principal lead-up to the ATC Oaks and Happy Hannah impressed as much as any in this year’s running behind winner Single Gaze.
The race was not strongly run and that probably assisted the eventual winner. Happy Hannah was unable to reel Single Gaze in but she was strong late in the piece and returned a Timeform rating of 111p – not far off Jameka at 114 and with the promise of much more to come.
In the same race New Zealand visitors Valley Girl and Capella both ran well with the pattern of the race probably suiting the on-speed Valley Girl more than the closing Capella.
There was very little between the pair when fourth and fifth in the New Zealand Derby prior to their Australian debuts and with both expected to appreciate the step back to 2400m there should be very little between them again – both representing solid each way chances in the race.
Fellow Kiwi Sofia Rosa contested the NZ Oaks as opposed to the Derby but she does tie in with that pair having beaten Valley Girl on New Years Day at Ellerslie.
She comes across rated 108 by Timeform against Valley Girl (rated 112) and Capella (109).
Adding to that she gets the services of Hugh Bowman who has been the top jock in the Oaks in recent years, winning it twice and placing three times in eight rides – on of those wins coming aboard a New Zealand filly Daffodil.
Queen Of The Turf
Melbourne-based fillies and mares look set to play a big role in the 2016 Queen Of The Turf.
It’s an evenly matched edition of the Queen Of The Turf, as it has been over the past three seasons after Typhoon Tracy and More Joyous dominated betting from 2010 – 2012.
Since then it has been a race for double-figure chances and that may be the case again in 2016 with Badawiya one that makes plenty of appeal at an each way quote.
Badawiya was a strong winner first up from a break in Melbourne, the Manifold winner from the spring bolting up with the Group 2 Kewney Stakes over 1400m.
She then went to Rosehill for the Emancipation where she travelled well to the corner before losing momentum when running up onto heels at a crucial stage. She kept on soundly and still posted a performance that puts her right in the heart of the action the Queen Of The Turf.
The Emancipation has produced the last two winners of the Queen Of The Turf. Diamond Drille and Amanpour came of running fourth and second respectively to win the Randwick Group 1.
The Coolmore Classic at Rosehill is the other key lead-up to the Queen Of The Turf and has produced plenty of winners over the years.
The Coolmore winner Peeping is being set for the All Aged Stakes next week but runner up Azkadellia is set to represent the formline.
She has since been placed in the Doncaster, producing another strong performance, and now presents on a seven-day back-up. Last time she did that she was one of the eye-catching runs of the spring in the Myer Classic, a performance that bodes well for her chances in the Queen Of The Turf.
Suavito is twice a winner at Group 1 level, both times in races open to all comers. She is an underrated mare and looks well placed attacking this race back against the mares after coming up short in the Australian Cup last time.
She won the Orr Stakes to start her campaign and was placed in the Futurity – the same path that Typhoon Tracy and More Joyous took towards the Queen Of The Turf – though she arrives with little fanfare.
She has the peak Timeform rating in the field and is not one to be dismissed lightly. She is no stranger to the Randwick mile either having run a good seventh in the wrong part of the track in last year’s Doncaster Mile.
Other chances from south of the Murray include Miss Rose De Lago and Noble Protector but their chances are no greater than Sydney’s leading hope, Zanbagh.
Zanbagh has been in top form this campaign and she comes off winning the Emancipation at Rosehill last time out.
Recent history is against the Emancipation winner following up at Randwick – the last 11 to try have failed – but the way Zanbagh is racing has to be respected and she is well worth her place hard in the market.