3 minute read
Mongolian Khan looks a great chance of winning Saturday's $A3 million Caulfield Cup but is by no means a certainty. We assess the form for the 2400m showpiece.
Protectionist: Last year's Melbourne Cup winner hasn't yet produced his best form and he looks held at the weights.
Snow Sky: Won the Gr.2 Yorkshire Cup and Gr.2 Hardwicke Stakes over the English summer, but fresh-up over a distance short of his best so vulnerable.
Fame Game.: High-class Japanese raider drawn favourably to settle closer than he did in the Gr.1 Tenno Sho, when beating home Hokko Brave. Looks a strong contender.
Our Ivanhowe: Handy second in a far weaker race last start, but only drops 4kg and has a wide draw.
Hokko Brave: Talented Japanese stayer drawn awkwardly but has to rate, especially if he rolls forward and settles handy on a moderate speed.
Mongolian Khan: Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman-trained dual Derby winner who has found the line well at each of his three weight-for-age lead-up races. Terrific third in last week's Gr.1 Caulfield Stakes in which he ran a race-quickest last 200m of 11.24 seconds. Step up in distance suits ideally.
Trip To Paris: Best efforts have been in marathons. This well short of is best trip.
Who Shot Thebarman: Kiwi-owned winner of last year's Gr.1 Auckland Cup going solid races in key form lead-ups. Expected improvement makes him a contender.
Grand Marshal: Gr.1 Sydney Cup winner going sound races, but has looked inferior to Hauraki so far and meets that horse worse at the weights.
Royal Descent: Talented mare facing a task from the outside draw. Gritty Gr.1 Turnbull Stakes second a fair form recommendation, but meets third-placed Set Square 3.5kg worse.
Volkstok'n'barrell: Gr.1 Rosehill Guineas winner looking to go one better than last year's runner-up Rising Romance for Kiwi trainer Donna Logan. Only fair in lead-up, but apparently easily had Gust Of Wind's measure in track work on Tuesday.
Hauraki: Gr.1 Australian Derby runner-up behind Mongolian Khan in the autumn and last-start Gr.3 Craven Plate second has him peaking for this. Drops 5kg. Strong claims.
Lucia Valentina: Fourth in this race last year. Closed well in the Gr.2 Hill Stakes, but only fair in the Gr.1 Epsom Handicap and goes up sharply in distance with a horror draw to boot.
Rising Romance: Kiwi-owned mare looking to improve on her second in this race last year. Faded last start in the Gr.1 Turnbull Stakes, but okay in the Gr.1 Makybe Diva Stakes prior.
Magicool: Out of form Gr.1 Queensland Derby winner.
Gust Of Wind: Lightly-tried Gr.1 Australian Oaks winner. Didn't come on in the Gr.1 Turnbull Stakes.
Set Square: Terrific effort for third in the Gr.1 Turnbull Stakes, sticking well in a race that suited the closers. Meets runner-up Royal Descent 3.5kg better. Facing tricky draw but win hope.
Magnapal: Easily beat home Our Ivanhowe when winning the Gr.3 Naturalism Stakes but this is a massive jump in class.
Emergencies: Quest For More looks a talented English stayer with claims, while Gr.3 Craven Plate winner Complacent, Dibayani and Gr.1 Metropolitan winner Magic Hurricane all have strong form credentials and it's a shame they haven't managed to secure a place in the field.
In summary, the favourable barrier draw, speed map and form lines all point to Mongolian Khan, but winning big races like this is never that easy.
Our picks:
1. Mongolian Khan
2. Fame Game3. Set Square
4. Hokko Brave