3 minute read
Thomas Hodgson returns with two selections for you on Monday…
Kempton, 5:45, Unibet Zero% Mission/EBF Novice Stakes GBB Race Div 1
Naval Commander is very much the pick of the pedigrees in the Unibet Zero% Mission/EBF Novice Stakes GBB Race Div 1 at Kempton on Monday. Bred in the purple, by Lope de Vega and out of All At Sea, this makes Charlie Appleby's colt a half brother to star-stayer Eldar Eldarov. While sold for a relatively inexpensive 360,000gns at last year's Book 1, the Godolphin runner ought to be going onto bigger and better things than this.
With no form in the book to speak of, it pays to have a look at trainer course records, and Charlie Appleby has made it his business to start off a lot of his good ones on the all-weather at Kempton, Notable Speech being perhaps the best example in recent times. Appleby enjoys a 32% strike rate around here, which is propped up by the equally stellar record of stable jockey William Buick, who enjoys a 24% strike rate at Kempton Park.
The boys in blue tend to excel with these types, and anything short of victory to justify short price favouritism would be a disappointment for all concerned.
NAVAL COMMANDER – WIN – 11/10
Musselburgh, 3:20, Ray Hawthorne Memorial Handicap
Ben Haslam's charge Reel Her In runs at Musselburgh in the 3:20 Ray Hawthorne Memorial Handicap. The key stat here to focus on is Haslam's 20% strike rate when turning horses around from an 8–14-day break. Having won here earlier this month, over the same trip, already defeating market rivals and receiving weight off them in turn, he looks poised to fire in back-to-back wins in quick succession. Haslam enjoys a decent record in this sense too, with 18% of last-time-out winners doing the business on second time of asking.
Paul Mulrennan is in the saddle and is a capable pair of hands around the East Lothian track.
J.P McManus' filly has enjoyed overnight support in the market, and one can expect some improvement to come on the back of her new career-best in Britain in less demanding company.
REEL HER IN – WIN 7/4