The Mail for Saturday

3 minute read

Strike One is a real stayer

SR 3: (1) STRIKE ONE - The only proven 3200m performer in this disappointing Stayer's Cup field and even with 58kg he is favoured to outstay his rivals, being a superior wet tracker in the easiest field he has met for some time. He had to do too much to make up the ground in a leader dominated Winter Cup over 2400m last start and the key for him here is his reunion with Nash Rawiller as he has partnered the gelding five times for three wins and knows how to get the best of the import.

SR 6: (7) KEY WEST - The combination of a wide gate, big weight and poor tactics on a heavy track when he drifted too far off the pace contributed to his last start seventh in a strong form race won by Scarf at Randwick on 28 May. Showed his true ability at his previous start when an impressive first-up winner at the Scone carnival and looks well placed to hit back in this suitable company as he handles the wet and comes in with a handy weight drop and rider switch from his last start.

SR 8: (11) BEREFT - This well bred Lonhro gelding has been out of a place just once in seven starts and looks ready to record his third career win as he step up to 1400m for the first time this campaign after three strong finishing efforts over shorter trips when he has been ridden from well off the pace. Ticks a lot of boxes as both his wins have come at 1350m/1400m, he has been placed in all three Rosehill runs against smart opposition and there are no qualms about him in heavy going as his wet form is excellent.

ONES TO AVOID

SR 5: (8) WINNING GLORY - While a drop in weight will help he was struggling here last start over 1500m and looks to be a good risk going over 1800m against stronger types.

SR 7: (3) WE BETCHA - Added another placing to her record here last start but got a favoured run and will find it hard to repeat with 3kg more from wide gate.

MR 5: (2) ZOOMIN - The 6yo tends to get better into a prep and showed he was ready to fire now after a strong finishing second at Sandown. Fitter, stronger and hopefully better for this, he meets some decent horses without any stars. The soft draw should be helpful as well and he will be in front of a lot of runners given some are hurdlers.

MR 7: (3) PHILDA - Has traditionally loved racing at Moonee Valley and if he is anywhere near right should go mighty close. There are a lot of out of form horses or ones who need further and so if he races near the speed and performs as hoped, we should collect something. One thing is for certain - with Mick Kent training these they will be ridden where the bias goes as he is a great track walker.

ONES TO AVOID

MR 6: (4) MID SUMMER MUSIC - With plenty of those weighted around her taking the claim, she goes up 4kg off that win at Caulfield and that might prove tough to defy. Moody's mare takes on several inform gallopers and while she is versatile, she might be unders especially at the weight scale. Mind you betting against this stable is fraught with danger.

IPSWICH - tips by Wayne Bristow

BR 2: (5) ROYAL SHOUT - We find a competitive 2yo race as usual so barriers often play a role. The Sequalo youngster draws perfectly in four to use the speed he showed at Doomben. While he did a few things wrong, was still good enough to win in town and ran away by a length. Shane Scriven will be desperate to jag a winner this meeting and the trainer has been associated with a few good horses over the journey.

BR 6: (3) DRENALIN - This horse has developed a very nice second up record and goes into this race by being one of the few on pacers to survive in the Chief de Beers. Last campaign won at Caulfield in a decent race, better than this field in all likelihood. Always like backing those on pacers at Ipswich and the trip is more his go as well. Didn't have the best of luck in this race last year either so each way for him.

ONES TO AVOID

BR 7: (1) OUR LUKAS - Will be the focus of most eyes in the Ipswich Cup as he goes for a three peat. But as opposed to the last two years, his lead in form has been pretty ordinary. May be needing the 2150m now but he will have plenty of company up front and that can't help. He's also carrying 2kg more than last year so it might be difficult for him.

MORPHETTVILLE PARKS - tips by Jason Hickson

AR 1: (2) CANDLE - Honest galloper with a superb record here. Wobbled around Oakbank then given a let-up. Well placed here and will be powering home fresh.

AR 7: (2) JALSAH - Racing well but just seemed to struggle in Melbourne last time on wet ground. Firmer suits here and looks hard to hold out.

ONES TO AVOID

AR 2: (2) SAFETY IN NUMBERS - Is lining up for a hat-trick of wins after two 2000m wins at his last two on the main track. Last start got every favour in front and the way the track played helped his chances. Not many chances here and as a result will be very short. Unknown at the trip, drawn wide, more weight and a third of the odds. No thanks.