The Mail for Saturday

3 minute read

Gybe will be popular but can she improve again

SR 1: (5) PECK - The normally reserved Peter Snowden has been talking up the this three-year-old as a good staying prospect for some time and showed his confidence in his potential by sending him to Brisbane on a Derby mission. It didn't work out but the trip may have been “pivotal” for the colt by the top UK sire of the same name as he made a super return to Sydney to win impressively over 2000m at Rosehill on 25 June when he swept home under 57kg. Should have no trouble with 2400m on a dry track and no doubt Snowden is grabbing this chance as it will ease him past some qualifying conditions for bigger things next season.

SR 3: (1) FROZONE - Astute Gold Coast trainer Alan Bailey doesn't travel without reason and he obviously sees this as an ideal opportunity for this smart gelding to add to an excellent record. A Randwick Kensington winner on his previous Sydney trip, this 5yo has to cope with 58kg but he is a last start stakes winner at Eagle Farm and his record over middle distances shows that he can only be better stepping up to 1800m. He is at his best on dry tracks and Bailey noted the fine weather forecast for Sydney before finalising his plans.

SR 6: (8) LOTSEVENTY - Honest gelding is a good value chance to figure in this open affair after an excellent last start effort over 1200m at Rosehill when fourth at first run for a month when he wasn't comfortable racing on the inside from the rails barrier. Wider draw here may not be a disadvantage as he seems to prefer roomier tracks and rates well in this even field with a 1.5kg drop in weight against rivals who have been severely penalised for their recent form.

ONES TO AVOID

SR 2: (1) BOSSDON CITY - Back to Sydney for this country trained speedster after his first-up fourth at Flemington. May be suspect having first go at 1200m and he will be under the odds due to his over rated debut win at Rosehill.

SR 6: (3) GYBE - Going for three straight and certain to be popular with boom apprentice James McDonald to ride but goes up 2kg for last win when she just lasted over 1200m at Rosehill. Willing to gamble that she has little scope for improvement.

MR 1: (1) BOLISIMO MISS - Has looked excellent in two runs from a spell. The latter was down the straight course and she loved every bit of it. Is up 2kg after the claim but seemed like she could handle that. If anything the extra 100m will only give her the chance to get further away. The stable and jockey are in form as well.

MR 5: (2) BLACK AND BENT - The grand jumper has come back so well on the flat being very competitive while not looking like winning. He gets a few things in his favour this time. A slightly lower weight and a step up in trip will only help him get into the picture against a field which isn't exactly thriving on racing. He could be value.

MR 7: (8) ELUMINO - She comes off essentially the same preparation as this time last year when she won this very race beating several straight track specialists. She will get back and watch what occurs up front then unleash. One guesses this has been the aim this time in and we might get good odds as well.

ONES TO AVOID

MR 6: (1) PHILDA - Surely this is a bridge too far. Not that he can't win over the mile but usually that comes at the Valley and this is far tougher, especially with 59kg. He's also not found a place at Flemington in his two attempts. Happy to give him a rest until he returns to MV.

EAGLE FARM - tips by Wayne Bristow

BR 2: (2) LAKE GEORGE - In perhaps better races than this field, he has been right around the mark and now gets to the right trip. His only run over this course and distance was a strong near two length victory and for this race gets the hottest jockey maybe in the country. With luck from the barrier and in running why can't he bring up his first win this campaign?

BR 7: (4) METALLURGICAL - Ran a cracker in the Healy Stks when he was going to win until the favourite just got out in time. He has become very solid since being gelded and in a race far below last start, he looks well in with 54kg. Will need speed on but if there is, the small field will help him race closer and not have to lose ground coming around them.

ONES TO AVOID

BR 6: (1) TINSELTOWN - He keeps running consistent races but never winning. Not in the winner's stall for nine runs, he has ranged up on several occasions but just when he appears to be likely to score he has not hit the line hard. His two mile form isn't that strong and he has to lump 58kg over that trip in a race he could only run fifth in last year with the same weight.

MORPHETTVILLE PARKS - tips by Jason Hickson

AR 4: (1) HEZA BARGAIN - Form excellent for this and claim helps offset the big weight. Jockey and trainer in superb form this season in Adelaide and if this one shows up he'll be hard to beat on his last start Valley placing.

AR 5: (5) PRINCE OF CAPERS - Recent form excellent for this. Has a wide gate but fitter for two runs since a let-up and will find this easier. Hard to hold out.

ONES TO AVOID

AR 7: (6) NEVZLIN - Won two on end then every chance over a mile last time as favourite. This no easier and meets a field full of chances but will be well fancied again. Bit cramped in the odds for mine.