Historical Analysis of the Emirates Stakes

3 minute read

Historical Analysis of the Emirates Stakes

EMIRATES STAKES - G1 1600m

Don’t even bother backing one in the market in the Emirates Stakes. So many roughies with nothing more so than Tears I Cry who won at 100-1 for his young trainer and enthusiastic owner in ’08. Find out what stats may contribute to these big priced winners.

PROFILING THE RACE

o Lindsay Park won it five times in a row from 1992 to 1996. And again recently.

o Don’t think there is a race on the calendar where you get more consistent pace on all the way as this race.

o Testa Rossa win with 59kg in ’00 is the biggest weight to win since Family of Man in ’78.

o Wide gates have not been a hindrance to victory.

o Not too many horses go into the Emirates off resounding form - hence the big price nature of the winners.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo/5yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner – 53.0kg

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <9-12> - 5 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $28

o Breakdown of winners - 5 geldings, 2 mares & 1 entires

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Chatham Stks (3), Crystal Mile (1), Cox Plate (2), Salinger Stks (1), Myer Classic (1), Betfair Stks (1), Rst89 (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2012 - HAPPY TRAILS 5g (Good Journey x Madame Flurry) ($13)

Jockey: Damien Oliver, Trainer: Paul Beshara

Barrier: 9, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 1:35.99

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Dead, Starters: 16

2nd: Fawkner (56.5kg), 3rd: Secret Admirer (57.0kg)

Review: What a darn good neddy Happy Trails had become. He was solid during the Autumn without winning including a cracker in the Doncaster but was always giving away too much ground. This prep he learned how to get out of the gates better and if anything this was the furthest back he got in a race. Off the Cox Plate without luck, he was forced to be wide with cover as Oliver tracked the cart up. Fawkner dived through and Secret Admirer looked home but even with the weight he poked his head out to win. Oliver’s fate was yet to be sealed by officialdom.

2011 - ALBERT THE FAT 7g (Magic Albert x Alemar) ($17)

Jockey: Mark Zahra, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 9, Weight: 54.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.05

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 16

2nd: King’s Rose (53.0kg), 3rd: Secret Admirer (54.0kg)

Review: There was good pace on as usual with Toorak Toff running them along, it was left to the backmarkers, most of them the Cox Plate entrants. King’s Rose and Secret Admirer were looking at being the ones but then Albert tacked onto the Moody mare’s rump and nabbed her in the last stride. Mark Zahra was very excited giving him his first Melbourne G1.

2010 - WALL STREET 6g (Montjeu x Villa Wanda) ($6 fav)

Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Jeff Lynds

Barrier: 9, Weight: 55.5kg, Gross Time: 1:36.73

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Dead, Starters: 16

2nd: Dao Dao (54.5kg), 3rd: Chasm (53.0kg)

Review: Horses like Albert The Fat and Sniper’s Bullet put on the pace. Rothera got smashed in a race with plenty of interference. They were stretched right across the track with all the placegetters having their shot. It was a nose by a nose by a nose. Bowman ended up with a great carnival winning the major race on two of the four days.