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Historical Analysis of the Warwick Stakes
WARWICK STAKES - G2 1400m
Warwick Stks winners are a bit of a who’s who. Then again you can get the odd Pablo’s Pulses of this world at 500-1 to put a cat amongst those pigeons.
For a variety of reasons, the Warwick Stks has been juggled between various Sydney racecourses (Warwick Farm/Randwick/Canterbury) and distances (1300/1400) over recent times.
Let’s examine just how good some of the modern contests have been and who might join Sunline, Filante, Super Impose, Kingston Town & Tulloch on the Warwick Stks honour roll.
PROFILING THE RACE
o 8 of last 14 winners have been first up.
o Given the quality of the horse flesh that often starts in this race, it’s hardly surprising that favourites or near favourites have a very strong record in the Warwick Stks. Except 2013.
o Big fields have not been common in this race but still inside gates have shown up. However that’s not a big issue in those small fields.
o There has certainly been no severe on-pace bias or pattern in the winners as many of the WFA stars have got a great turn of foot allowing them to come from midfield.
o It’s been a race for the stronger, race savvy WFA stars. No 4yos have won recently.
o Last 10 Years Most Prevalent Age of winner - All Ages
o Last 10 Years Average Price of winner - $12
o Breakdown of winners - 8 geldings & 1 colt
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Aurie’s Star (1), Missile Stks (2), Run To The Rose (1), Ruakaka Open (1), Spell (4)
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 7, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:27.73
Margin: 1.3L, Track: Heavy (9), Starters: 72nd: Royal Descent (57.0kg), 3rd: Criterion (58.5kg)
Review: There are not too many better mudlarks than Tiger Tees and had he shown he was a strong 1400m horse in the past, there was no way he was starting at 9-2. Pride had taken him to Melbourne for a first up kill but found a dry track yet he still won.
Here Schofield took him to the front again but raced off the fence. He only crossed over around halfway but was never hard on the rail and was unpressured.
When all the staying types made their runs he gave a kick and held the margin on the line on a big day for his trainer who trained half the card.
2013 - VEYRON 8g (Thorn Park x Over The Limit) ($21)
Jockey: Christian Reith, Trainer: Linda LaingBarrier: 2, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:21.55
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 132nd: Streama (57.0kg), 3rd: Rain Affair (59.0kg)
Review: Sometimes the kiwis are just too good. The race was built up around the strength of Rain Affair and Streama as well as all the good stayers resuming. But one horse who was left out of many calculations was Veyron.
This horse was under 2 lengths from Pierro in the George Ryder and a multiple G1 winner previously. Rain Affair set the race up but burning along in front. But it was a firm track and Streama was hot on his heels.
They had a margin to third around the bend but Veyron was just close enough to be within touch. They collared RA and the kiwi bobbed on the line.
Barrier: 11, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:22.59
Margin: 0.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 132nd: Secret Admirer (57.0kg), 3rd: Danleigh (59.0kg)
Review: Despite being a betting drifter you had to admire this sturdy member of the Snowden yard. He brought up the million dollar earnings by sitting right on the speed with many of the stayers getting back.
McEvoy got him mobile at the point of the bend and just when others like placegetters and Lamasery were charging, he held them off to go back to back via that turn of foot.