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Historical Analysis of the Underwood Stakes
About this time each Spring trainers decide whether to go handicapping or to WFA races and the Underwood is the decider. Glory in the staying Cups at Caulfield and Flemington can be shown up here? Examining recent Underwoods might give us an idea of a Spring entrant’s likely passage.
PROFILING THE RACE
o Kiwis won it three times in a row before Foreteller.
o Danny Nikolic won four Underwoods from 1997.
o Three years in a row the Underwood winner did the double winning the Caulfield Cup (Northerly, Mummify, Elvstroem).
o Race has been dominated by horses racing on the speed. Furthest back in the run in recent times has been El Segundo and he just swamped them. Foreteller took inside splits.
o No clear pattern with the barriers but the race often contains a few distance handicappers who can’t take up a forward position anyway.
o Favourites haven’t gone on with the job very often.
o Last mare to win was Tristarc in 1985 (Atlantic Jewel was 4/7 in 2013 and beaten).
o Three times in the last decade has the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Underwood.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (6 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $12
o Breakdown of winners - 6 geldings & 4 entires
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Makybe Diva Stks (2), Memsie Stks (3), Makfi Stks (2), D’Urban Stks (1), Dato Tan Chin Nam Stks (2)
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 4, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:48.83
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 122nd: Fawkner (59.0kg), 3rd: The Cleaner (59.0kg)
Review: The previous season Mourinho had been left out of the Cox Plate. He had a good Moonee Valley record but nothing at the elite level. After an Australia Stakes, St George Stakes and a Liston he was always going to make it in 2015 but taking the G1 Underwood simply confirmed this.
Sitting just on the back of the leaders he took his time to wind up as The Cleaner ran them along again. He veered off the track but held on by a head as the other two 8yos in the finish The Cleaner and Fawkner fought back. It was his first G1 and also for his trainer.
Barrier: 2, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:50.25
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 102nd: Happy Trails (59.0kg), 3rd: Crackerjack King (59.0kg)
Review: Chris Waller had had a good day already including the George Main in Sydney with Sacred Falls. This old warrior had won major races at least once every campaign since arriving from France.
This was a strange race in that Crackerjack King went to the front and stayed about five horses off it all the way. He rolled along and held a margin into the turn.
As the field swamped him they came from everywhere and the Cox Plate runner up Happy Trails looked to go close but the Waller gelding surged late up the inside and grabbed him by a nose. It might not have been the quality of previous years.
Barrier: 12, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 1:54.70
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Slow (6), Starters: 142nd: Atlantic Jewel (57.0kg), 3rd: Dear Demi (56.0kg)
Review: This was a strange race from start to finish. Run as the last race again on the card, it was a walk, trot and canter. Even on a slow track the time was horrendous. Every horse stayed in formation after the jump.
In a surprise not only did Atlantic Jewel lead in her attempt to keep the unbeaten streak going, (It’s A) Dundeel showed more pace than he has previously and sat outside her. There wasn’t much initiative shown, much like other races on the card.
The top mare tried to sprint away but the strength of IADD was there at the right time and he nabbed her on the line.
/s1