Historical Analysis of the Epsom Hcp

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Historical Analysis of the Epsom Hcp

EPSOM HCP - G1 1600m

Trainers, owners, jockeys and punters are almost addicted to the big Randwick miles. The ATC acknowledged the Doncaster Mile as its flagship race in the Autumn and here we have another great mile in the Spring.

The Doncaster’s little brother, the Epsom, might not be as high a profile but it is as hard to win (except for Waterhouse and now Waller) and has seen some spectacular performances of sustained speed and weight carrying ability. Who wins in 2016?

PROFILING THE RACE

o While the Doncaster has been dominated by the 3yo brigade, it’s been a complete supremacy by the 4yo army in the Epsom. Of the last 20 runnings, 14 x 4yos have saluted.

o Make sure you include the Waterhouse runners in your bets - they are remarkable in their consistency at the mile.

o Last non-NSW trained horse to win was Golden Sword in 1993 before Captain Sonador.

o Before Winx and Secret Admirer, the previous mare to win the Epsom was as far back as La Neige in 1976.

o Like most Randwick miles it is as important to have momentum with cover as it is to get in. Too often a runner gets a nice run but fails to get out.

o Last 10 Years Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (7 times)

o Last 10 Years Average Weight of winner - 53.5kg

o Last 10 Years Average Price of winner - $7

o Breakdown of winners - 6 geldings, 2 mares & 1 entire

o Races that the winner ran in prior - George Main Stks (3), Shannon Stks (2), Bill Ritchie Hcp (2), Theo Mark Stks (1), Kingston Town Stks (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2015 - WINX 4m (Street Cry x Vegas Showgirl) ($3 fav)

Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 12, Weight: 57.0kg, Gross Time: 1:34.58

Margin: 2.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 14

2nd: Ecuador (56.0kg), 3rd: Sons Of John (56.0kg)

Review: This mare had turned herself into something very special. The Brisbane winter alerted the racing scene to a special talent when charging home but the two Sydney runs to this time in the Spring were unbelievable.

Ridiculous in the Theo Marks, she got knocked from pillar to post in a roughhouse Epsom. Bowman had Shinn on Kirramosa put the mare back in a pocket at the 500m and the ensuing battle caused Winx to become very unbalanced.

Once more she was hip and shouldered but up the rise she spotted a gap, Bowman drove her through and she tore away from them to win by panels under a big weight when they were all raised at acceptance time. What a star.

2014 - HE'S YOUR MAN 5g (Cape Cross x Via Saleria) ($5.50)

Jockey: Joao Moreira, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 10, Weight: 52.5kg, Gross Time: 1:33.34

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 15

2nd: Royal Descent (55.5kg), 3rd: Hooked (52.0kg)

Review: There were two big stories here and none were the horse. Firstly Chris Waller was having an amazing run in the feature races but even more so in the Randwick miles winning countless Doncasters, Epsoms, George Mains, Chelmsfords etc.

Yet again he trained the quinella. The other was the effort of Joao Moreira. The Brazilian was in great touch and needed every bit of that to get this horse home. Waller used a system he had done before, running them over 2000m and then freshening up back to the mile.

He’s Your Man won the Kingston Town well and got back a long way here after an early scrimmage. Moreira didn’t panic. He got him balanced again, switched wide and nailed the bridesmaid Royal Descent by a nose. Hooked was fantastically brave into third.

2013 - BOBAN 4g (Bernadini x Kenbelle) ($6)

Jockey: Glyn Schofield, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 10, Weight: 53.0kg, Gross Time: 1:34.43

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 16

2nd: Streama (54.5kg), 3rd: Toydini (54.0kg)

Review: Rarely has a horse turned its form around as much as Boban. He was literally mad when racing in Brisbane as a 2yo. He sort of got things on track as a 3yo and the gelding helped.

But Chris Waller worked the magic. Smothered up twice when explosive, he had no luck in the big one. He was back near last and checked. With the speed on, he looked too far back.

Schofield had to pull him right to the outside and he unleashed. But only in the final lunge did he nab the Guy Walter pair. What a gallant mare Streama was.