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Historical Analysis of the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES - G2 1600m
It is usually a tight margin in the Dato Tan Chin Nam or Feehan Stakes. It surely must be the mystic of Moonee Valley generating such drama - hard to find any other factor causing such remarkably close finishes.
Let’s take a look at this important Cox Plate lead up.
PROFILING THE RACE
o A definitive race for the horses who’ve shown a clear love of Moonee Valley.
o It’s not been a good race for leaders as the winners have generally come from off the pace. Not so in 2014 or 2015.
o Reasonably well sized fields don’t really indicate a barrier advantage but inside gates have shown up as some assistance.
o Favoured runners have been well found and victorious. 2016 was an exception.
o Horses of all ages have won recently except the 3yos who haven’t had a win since 1974.
o 9 of the last 16 winners have used the Memsie as their final lead up but none of them actually won the Memsie.
o Cox Plate winning jockeys have won 10 of the last 16 runnings.
o Only 3 of the Cox Plate winners in the last decade ran in the Feehan six weeks earlier.
o 9 of the last 10 Feehan winners ran in the Cox Plate but only El Segundo did the MV double (Guillotine odd one out as he did not run in CP).
o Since So Called in 1978, 8 horses have done the Feehan/CP double.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4/5yos (4 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $9.80
o Breakdown of winners - 6 geldings, 1 mare & 3 entires
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Memsie Stks (5), Lawrence Stks (2), Rst 91 (Adl), Open Hcp (1), Spell (1).
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 7, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 1:37.33
Margin: 0.3L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 92nd: Abbey Marie (57.0kg), 3rd: Rhythm To Spare (59.0kg)
Review: What a drama charged race. There were scratchings pre-race, madness as the gates opened and interference in running.
Star Exhibit was the favourite and on jumping reared leaving Mark Zahra scrambling in the barriers. The horse then got up inside, checked runners then peeled out and went around the field. It distorted the field.
While this was happening the kiwi mare Bonneval was out the back and watching it unfold. She swept into the race and had them covered until a late charge by Abbey Marie.
Barrier: 2, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:37.01
Margin: 2L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 142nd: Real Love (57.0kg), 3rd: Set Square (57.0kg)
Review: This horse and his owners lost plenty from a future potential when losing the Australian Cup on protest.
He got some redemption at the Valley in a controversial race. Baster had him near the inside from the draw but he needed to get out. He did that but it cost him a suspension.
There were plenty of unlucky runners but the horse ran away from them once out. How much the form stacked up needed to be appreciated afterwards.
Barrier: 6, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.30
Margin: 1.8L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 112nd: Bagman (59.0kg), 3rd: Dibayani (59.0kg)
Review: Back to back he went. There was hype around Godolphin’s Contributer heading south as a warm up for the Cox Plate but this was a race for the Moonee Valley marvel as The Cleaner led all the way again.
Unlike past Valley runs he didn’t clear out. Callow controlled him to the 800m then began to quicken.
As others were ducking and diving for runs, Callow released the brakes and he soared away. It wasn’t a contest from the home turn. We know where his main aim would be?