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Historical Analysis of the Epsom Handicap
EPSOM HCP - G1 1600m
Trainers, owners, jockeys and punters are almost addicted to the big Randwick miles.
The ATC acknowledged the Doncaster Mile as its flagship race in the Autumn and here we have another great mile in the Spring.
The Doncaster’s little brother, the Epsom, might not be as high a profile but it is as hard to win (except for Waterhouse and now Waller) and has seen some spectacular performances of sustained speed and weight carrying ability. Who wins in 2018?
PROFILING THE RACE
o While the Doncaster has been dominated by the 3yo brigade, it’s been a complete supremacy by the 4yo army in the Epsom. Of the last 22 runnings, 14 x 4yos have saluted.
o Make sure you include any Waterhouse runners in your bets - they are remarkable in their consistency at the mile.
o Last non-NSW trained horse to win was Golden Sword in 1993 before Captain Sonador.
o Before Winx and Secret Admirer, the previous mare to win the Epsom was as far back as La Neige in 1976.
o Like most Randwick miles it is as important to have momentum with cover as it is to get in. Too often a runner gets a nice run but fails to get out.
o Last 10 Years Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (6 times)
o Last 10 Years Average Weight of winner - 54.0kg
o Last 10 Years Average Price of winner - $7.20
o Breakdown of winners - 7 geldings, 2 mares & 1 entire
o Races that the winner ran in prior - George Main Stks (3), Shannon Stks (2), Bill Ritchie Hcp (2), Theo Mark Stks (1), Kingston Town Stks (1)
RECENT WINNERS
2017 - HAPPY CLAPPER 7g (Teofilo x Busking) ($2.40 fav)
Jockey: Blake Shinn, Trainer: Pat WebsterBarrier: 2, Weight: 57.0kg, Gross Time: 1:33.17
Margin: 0.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 102nd: Tom Melbourne (52.0kg), 3rd: Snitzson (50.5kg)
Review: Such a deserved Group 1 win. Happy Clapper had been so close placing in two Doncasters, an Epsom and a Queen Elizabeth but this was his time.
Even under the weight all he needed was a good ride and clear running. He got both. Blake Shinn had him behind the leader but once he pushed out, there was no stopping his momentum. When he had Tom Melbourne chasing underneath you knew you were safe.
The big horse kept rolling providing Pat Webster with his greatest racing thrill. A darn good horse was worthy of being a G1 winner.
2016 - HAURAKI 5g (Reset x Youthful Presence) ($6.50)
Jockey: James McDonald, Trainer: John O’SheaBarrier: 10, Weight: 56.0kg, Gross Time: 1:33.87
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 132nd: Dibayani (54.0kg), 3rd: Mackintosh (52.0kg)
Review: You cannot believe this horse won. Not only did he have to carry 56kg, he was ten lengths back around the bend. With the leader Fabrizio setting a mad tempo up front, many were chasing from a long way out.
McDonald had to sit and wait and hope they caved in. As those chasing grabbed the leader at the furlong, they looked to fight it out. Hauraki charged down the middle and got up in the last stride in a grand effort. You don’t see that often.
It was easily his best career run and less of a surprise considering he was close up to Winx the previous run.
2015 - WINX 4m (Street Cry x Vegas Showgirl) ($3 fav)
Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Chris WallerBarrier: 12, Weight: 57.0kg, Gross Time: 1:34.58
Margin: 2.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 142nd: Ecuador (56.0kg), 3rd: Sons Of John (56.0kg)
Review: This mare had turned herself into something very special. The Brisbane winter alerted the racing scene to a special talent when charging home but the two Sydney runs to this time in the Spring were unbelievable.
Ridiculous in the Theo Marks, she got knocked from pillar to post in a roughhouse Epsom. Bowman had Shinn on Kirramosa put the mare back in a pocket at the 500m and the ensuing battle caused Winx to become very unbalanced.
Once more she was hip and shouldered but up the rise she spotted a gap, Bowman drove her through and she tore away from them to win by panels under a big weight when they were all raised at acceptance time. What a star.