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Historical Analysis of the Stradbroke Handicap
While southerners are quick to point to the Newmarket or the Lightning or the TJ Smith as the best sprints in the nation, the Stradbroke can’t be far behind.
It usually produces some great races and some brilliant winners who go onto better things like Private Steer, Dane Ripper, Adam and All Our Mob.
See the Straddies as they strive for success and the big prize to the winner.
PROFILING THE RACE
o Run at Doomben in 2015 and again in 2017/2018 due to Eagle Farm track issues.
o Despite the first prize, the Stradbroke is one of the G1s in Australia that has not been dominated by the leading stables in recent years.
o Great race for Victorian jockeys.
o It’s been a top race for the more obscure stallions rather than the big names.
o No horse has done the 10,000/Stradbroke double since Campaign King did it in 1988. 10,000 placegetters have done well like Black Piranha, Private Steer, Show a Heart, Adam etc.
o QTC Cup winners have an absolutely shocking record in the Stradbroke with no winners.
o Like the Doncaster Hcp and Oakleigh Plate, 3yos have great profile.
o Before Black Piranha, only outright favourite to win since 1996 was Private Steer in 2003.
o Only two winners have carried more than 56kg to win in the last 40 years (Rough Habit and Campaign King).
o Winners can come from any barrier.
o Since 2000 only Show a Heart, Black Piranha and Santa Ana Lane had won a G1 prior to their Stradbroke win.
o Rough Habit was the last repeat winner before 2010.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 6yo (4 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 53.5kg
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $18
o Breakdown of winners - 6 geldings, 2 mares, 1 colt & 1 entire
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Doomben 10,000 (4), Kingsford-Smith Cup (1), QTC Cup (1), RA Lee Stks (1), BRC Sprint (1), Goodwood (2).
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 3, Weight: 55.5kg, Gross Time: 1:19.95
Margin: 1.8L, Track: Heavy (8), Starters: 162nd: Super Cash (51.5kg), 3rd: Champagne Cuddles (51.0kg)
Review: Not many times would a horse win three G1s in a season, all of them handicaps and all at huge odds ($26/$26/$13). Santa Ana Lane was a backmarker which adds to price but he finishes so strongly.
However from gate 3 in the Stradbroke he could sit closer. Ben Melham rode him into the race earlier at Doomben. He was within a few lengths and when the inside opened up, that was manna from heaven.
He carried the weight and handled the track and so was a deserved winner. The light weighted girls tried hard but were no match for the winner.
2017 - IMPENDING 3c (Lonhro x Mnemosyne) ($21)
Jockey: Corey Brown, Trainer: Darren BeadmanBarrier: 13, Weight: 52.5kg, Gross Time: 1:17.93
Margin: 0.3L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 162nd: In Her Time (53.5kg), 3rd: Clearly Innocent (57.0kg)
Review: Godolphin had not been known historically for winning handicap races but this season had won the Epsom and Doncaster and now took the Stradbroke. This was an historic result as Darren Beadman would soon go back to being assistant trainer to James Cummings.
He had ridden the father Lonhro and mother Mnemosyne to win G1s and now became a G1 winning trainer of their progeny. Impending had had a frustrating time striking wet tracks. He was another horse enjoying the move to Doomben on the good.
Brown had him back and swooping and he ran down such a brave mare In Her Time who should have won being wide the trip. The other Newcastle horse Clearly Innocent rattled home too but the course wasn’t to his liking.
2016 - UNDER THE LOUVRE 5h (Excellent Art x Barcelona Girl) ($11)
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn, Trainer: Robert SmerdonBarrier: 13, Weight: 54.5kg, Gross Time: 1:23.72
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 182nd: Black Heart Bart (58.0kg), 3rd: The Virginian (50.5kg)
Review: Long thought of as a bit of a bridesmaid, and arguably not a 1400m horse, Under The Louvre won his first G1. Originally with Tony Vasil, who on this same day made his comeback to race training, this horse had placed in four G1s prior and only once won at the trip.
He had been a close second to Black Heart Bart in the Goodwood and they reversed things here. Getting moving at the 600m, he tracked BHB everywhere he went.
They settled down to fight it out at the furlong and that pull in the weights was probably the key.