3 minute read
The greatest two minutes in sport takes place at The Valley on Saturday.
The Cox Plate is my favourite race in the world. I love the Cups, the big field mile handicaps, the rich sprints, but there's nothing like the Cox Plate.
You always get the best horses in the country and sometimes the world at weight-for-age with the pressure on from the outset in an electric cauldron, and Saturday will be no different.
Any race with Pride Of Jenni in the field is a great spectacle but put the most high-pressure horse in the country into the highest-pressure race in the country, and to quote Greg Miles: "this could be set up for something special."
Something special this could be. Beaten last week, Pride Of Jenni turns back down the Hume, stops in at Bong Bong for a spa day and gets to 2040m. Her two runs at 2000m, since being the Jenni we know, have been outstanding.
They don't go much faster than she did in the Australian Cup, running the 11th fastest ever time over the Flemington 2000m where she ran a Racing & Sports rating of 121 before a second crack at the trip in the Queen Elizabeth with a whopping 129.
Still that race is interesting- she going a bit too hard, the others going ridiculously too slow, but the number is real and ratings of 123, 126, 123 at her past three starts say she's not far off that.
The question is whether a busy campaign on the quick backup in another state sees her elevate or not, and it's something that's almost impossible to model. What we do know is that she's very good, and that those behind her need to be able to absorb a fast tempo and sustain a long gallop.
Enter, Prognosis. The Japanese son of Deep Impact comes here looking to emulate compatriot Lys Gracieux in 2019, and conveniently, Racing & Sports has a wealth of data and ratings to compare the two.
Lys Gracieux came here rated 129 on the Racing & Sports rating scale, off a three length win in the Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen (2200m), running a huge time figure of 138. Put simply, she was very good and very fast.
Prognosis is also rated 129 and can run serious times off strong tempos, as we've come to expect from the world-class Japanese horses. They don't muck around, and neither does Jenni.
While Lys Gracieux had already won a Group 1 at home and Prognosis hasn't, he's actually only one in one at home, opting on three occasions to target Hong Kong instead, with good reason- Equinox.
Prognosis has been to Hong Kong three times and been beaten by Romantic Warrior three times, but by god he's been given some shockers there, partly through his own issues and partly pilot error, but what he gets on Saturday is every chance to redeem himself.
There'll be no getting back in a dash home here. Damian Lane is too good, too smart to let that happen. If he's slowly away, don't be surprised if he goes full Shinn on Antino and tries to go from halfway. If he jumps cleanly and is close enough to Pride Of Jenni, there has been no horse better equipped to beat her, ever.
The two horses that have beaten her when she's been fit, firing, and ready to rumble are Cascadian and Ceolwulf- both high pressure beasts that can sustain an 800m sprint. Prognosis fits that mould perfectly, and can claim to be a bit better than them too.
The more I look at this race, and the market, the more I like Prognosis. Yes he could bungle it at the beginning, but I think that's built into the price. If he had the manners of a horse like Romantic Warrior or Mr Brightside, he's even money here, but instead we're seeing close to double that.
That's not to say the others can't win. Pride Of Jenni will make it hard for most of them again, and going up in trip now I think should suit. She's my second pick in the market, while I'm longer on Via Sistina and Broadsiding.
Via Sistina has started favourite to beat Pride Of Jenni each time they've met and been beaten, with excuses. The ride in the QE was awful and she was clearly below her best in the Makybe Diva. A fast pace isn't an issue, she showed that in the Turnbull, but I'm not sure she's any better than what she's shown so far, and she'll likely have to be.
Her best four ratings are 122, 122, 123, 123 which are very, very good, but would struggle to win this. Maybe she can improve again in her grand final, but she's too short to do so.
Broadsiding is a fascinating colt to assess. He's rated 119 off the Golden Rose win on the R&S scale but was clearly disappointing in the Guineas. For every Shamus Award and So You Think, there's a Militarize and a King Colorado. He probably fits in somewhere between those pairs, but backing him to run a big new peak off that is hard to do at single figures. He's also some query on a firm deck for me.
No one would begrudge Mr Brightside winning, and it wouldn't shock if he did, but I'm coming around to the theory that a fast 2000m isn't his optimal scenario. He was given a great ride in last year's Cox Plate but it wasn't a test of stamina, which will surely eventuate again here. He'll try his heart out and does love Moonee Valley, and I've actually got him just a touch shorter in my 100% market, which can be seen below.
| Mr Brightside | $7.00 |
| Prognosis | $3.00 |
| Kovalica | $34 |
| Royal Patronage | $67 |
| Docklands | $34 |
| Pride Of Jenni | $4.50 |
| Via Sistina | $6.50 |
| Broadsiding | $14 |
| Evaporate | $67 |
I have to back in Prognosis at the $3.80 currently on offer. If jockey and horse get it right, he is the best equipped horse to win this race, and I could see him putting a hole in them if he does.
Similarly if Pride Of Jenni is on, she goes close, and I think a few will struggle to get near her if she is. Via Sistina can win, but I think she's too short and have her just ahead of Mr Brightside. I have to be pretty heavily against Broadsiding who has the task ahead to bounce back. The others would all need big new peaks to win which I can't foresee.
Cox Plate 2024
Tip: #2 Prognosis