3 minute read
Preview and suggested bets for Saturday’s Spring Champion Stakes.
Not a vintage Spring Champion which is in a bit of a strange spot on the calendar but nevertheless, there's a winner to be found and the key lead up is the Gloaming Stakes won by El Castello.
There was some questionable rides in that race with a few key chances getting into hopeless positions out the back while El Castello was forward of midfield and tracked into it nicely on the bend.
Swiftfalcon was clearly the run of the race there, getting back to near last but running on powerfully to grab second. He started a clear favourite there, and he could've easily run to his expected rating of 111 had he been given a better ride.
The issue here is that he's drawn barrier 11/11, Jay Ford sticks, and he's trained by the Hawkes, who are notoriously negative from wide gates. If you knew they were going to go forward, he'd clearly be on top, but if they go back, it'll make life very tough again.
Henlein was ridden even colder (somehow) than Swiftfalcon in the Gloaming, and probably just lacked that turn of foot to get into the race when needed. He looks the real stayer of the group and most suited to 2000m at Randwick.
Barrier one has to be a positive for Henlein who should lob a pair or two closer by default, and he already has a higher peak of 106 on the R&S scale (El Castello went 105 to win the Gloaming), having run on well behind Evaporate in the Stutt Sakes at Moonee Valley.
I'm with Henlein here at the price on the proviso that he can settle midfield from barrier one. If he does, I think he'll be the strongest late. If they ride Swiftfalcon forward he'll just about win, but I don't think they will.
Spring Champion Stakes
Tip: #3 Henlein at $4.80