3 minute read
We look at the big fields of the Epsom Handicap and The Metropolitan to try and find some value.
Epsom Handicap
A Group 1 handicap field of 20 over the Randwick mile is what Australian racing is all about. It's a shame the Epsom & Doncaster and other Group 1 mile handicaps have fallen by the wayside in recent times – too many options, too much competition, not enough fast horses racing fast horses.
That said, there's still some quality animals going around and a winner to be found. Found it hard to really stamp one at single figures. Of those horses, Ceolwulf is probably the most interesting.
He went 118+ with Timeform over 1500m two back and 117+ behind Eliyass last time and that goes awfully close to winning this. Back in trip now is a little query for me as I think, if anything, he wants 2400m, but I think he's the one to beat.
That said, I think Tom Kitten should be closer in the market. He ran to 117 first-up beating Amor Victorious by two lengths, who Ceolwulf beat by 2.7 lengths, before a flat one second up in a strange race.
He was given a poor steer, trapped wide and then eventually going back before trying to loop them when the trifecta came up the inside. I think he bounces back out to a mile third-up and can win.
The other is Kintyre, who drops beautifully down to 50kg. He was rock-solid fresh in the Tramway behind Royal Patronage and meets that horse 8kg better for a 2.7 length defeat. He was trapped wide in the Bill Ritchie and was just fair but out to 1600m now from a good draw, he can run very well at $26.
The Metropolitan
One of the hardest races I've ever seen. On our weight-adjusted ratings, genuinely half of the field have a last-start number within a length of each other.
There are horses here at big odds that really wouldn't surprise. Alegron ($35) and Trust In You ($151) were both better than face value in the Kingston Town behind Eliyass.
Zardozi beat most of her rivals home there but sat close to a slow speed and was the most suited. I've got no idea how she's going but must have claims out to 2400m.
Land Legend was just behind Zardozi there and will relish getting to a staying trip. If he runs to his 115 rating he did first-up in Australia in the St Leger, he'd win this.
Berkshire Breeze was given a horribly negative steer last start but I would assume he goes to the Bart Cummings. If he's here, I'll be backing him, if he's there (spoiler alert) I'll also be backing him.
Immediacy was backed off the map last start in Melbourne and was just fair with the race shape against. He could be an improver out to 2400m.
Very tough. Berkshire Breeze on top if he's here from Land Legend, while Alegron and Immediacy might be exotics players.