3 minute read
A ratings-based look at short-priced favourites in the Caulfield Guineas.
It's all about Broadsiding in the Guineas and rightly so. He became the first horse to win the Golden Rose first-up from a spell and did it in exciting fashion, charging late at an even tempo to beat some high-class colts.
In terms of pricing him here, I thought it relevant to compare his ratings and current place in the market to other short priced favourites in a Caulfield Guineas.
Since 2000, there have been four horses to start odds-on in the Caulfield Guineas- The Autumn Sun, Rich Enuff, Pierro and Weekend Hussler. Two of those won- The Autumn Sun in 2018 and Weekend Hussler in 2007.
The following table shows those four horses peak Timeform ratings leading into the Guineas, their SP, finishing position and rating they ran in the Guineas.
| Horse | Rated | SP | Position/Margin | Rating |
| The Autumn Sun | 120+ | $1.70 | 1st – 4.5L | 126 (+6) |
| Rich Enuff | 125 | $1.80 | 2nd – 0.3L | 125 (+0) |
| Pierro | 127 | $1.22 | 2nd – 0.5L | 123 (-4) |
| Weekend Hussler | 122 | $1.90 | 1st – 2.8L | 126 (+4) |
On average, odds-on favourites in the Guineas actually improve their peak rating (albeit from a very small sample size).
Broadsiding is rated 121+ off his Golden Rose win and it wasn't dissimilar to a horse like The Autumn Sun, both closing off strongly over distances that do look too short.
Meanwhile Anamoe was rated 120 as a two-year-old and 119 off his Golden Rose second (on a bias track) and then went 123 in the Guineas.
All this to say, Broadsiding deserves to be incredibly short in the Guineas. He's got more improvement than anything in the field, has Group 1 wins at a mile, and if he makes any improvement he'll kick their heads in.
If McDonald rides him arrogantly and just surges forward to sit on speed, the biggest thing on his mind will be what salute he wants to use on the post.
I've got him marked $1.60, about the same price as what I thought The Autumn Sun should be in 2018, and if we get $1.80+ on the day, I'll be betting.
Mayfair is the danger through the Golden Rose and if Broadsiding goes back from the draw it could get a bit hairy. Angel Capital is a nice horse and looks my third pick while Tropicus can sneak into exotics at a bigger price.