3 minute read
One of Australia’s oldest races sees a full field for the Victoria Derby.
A full field and a very interesting field for the Derby. The Melbourne lead up races have been run at very slow tempos and it's been difficult to get a gauge on who will be the ones improving out to 2500m.
El Castello comes here as clearly the highest rated horse at 110 on the R&S scale- some six pounds clear off the next best. His win last week in the Spring Champion was good and he's done nothing to suggest 2500m will be a problem.
The barrier is tricky though- the Flemington 2500m is a tough start for those drawn wide as they run straight into a bend. We've also seen plenty of higher rated Spring Champion horses come to the Derby and fail.
Picking through the Super Impose, Caulfield Classic, MV Vase and Geelong Classic is tough given the aforementioned slow tempos. In particular, the Caulfield Classic was an absolute farce.
I thought Scary was a good run in the Super Impose when strongest late behind Keeneland when backed into $4, and can wipe the Caulfield run. I think he'll be much more positive out to 2500m and should stay the trip strongly.
From Geelong, the winner Saint Emilion has to come here as a strong chance. He'll need to improve his rating but won that with a good turn of foot and the Maher stable have to be respected.
The market support for Oxford Blue there was very strong and I think he was just outsprinted. He's another that will relish a proper test.
The Moonee Valley Vase was another slowly run race (although anything would look slow compared to Via Sistina). There looks very little between that form and the Geelong & Caulfield lead ups, and while the quick backup can suit, I don't think the likes of Red Aces or King Of Thunder are much better chances than a few longer in the market.
I couldn't back anything in this race at single figures- it's too open and there isn't enough true form to go off which is where things get interesting.
I liked the run of Scary at Flemington and can easily wipe last start. He's now $41 which seems worth a gamble. The other one I'll back is Oxford Blue at $26. The market loved him at Geelong and I think he too wants a proper staying test which he hasn't really seen.
Victoria Derby 2024
Value play: #13 Scary at $41
Also backing: #14 Oxford Blue at $34