3 minute read
We preview Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup in a year with plenty of interesting betting angles.
This year's Melbourne Cup may lack some of that top-end quality we've seen in recent years, but at the end of the day, the Melbourne Cup is captivating like no other race can be.
To everyone that says the Melbourne Cup isn't what it used to be, I guarantee you'll still be watching and putting on that one extra trifecta than what you might on a normal race.
The final few minutes are rife with anticipation regardless of the field and even for people who focus on ratings that may be down on previous years, the winner still pays the same and the race will be just as exciting.
Looking at previous editions, only two horses have a Racing & Sports rating that would win a typical Melbourne Cup – Buckaroo and Vauban.
Buckaroo is rated 124 on the RAS ratings, Vauban 122, but both have genuine queries hanging over them.
Vauban is approximately the same price he started in last year's Cup which was won by the 127 rated Without A Fight.
He drifted notably on the day, got worked up pre-race and didn't handle the occasion. That could have been for a number of reasons, but a lot of those factors will be the same this year.
There'll be a huge crowd, it'll be warm weather, and he'll need to handle those things. If he does, and you knew he'd run to his best, he'd be a fairly short favourite.
If anything, he's going a touch better than he was before coming down last year. He was strong winning the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup (3319m) at York two starts back on quick ground and rated higher again last time when second to star stayer Kyprios in the Group 1 Irish St Leger (2816m).
Vauban's knock is one we've seen transpire before, and that is always a bigger risk that what we have no data points around, which is where Buckaroo comes in.
He's untried and therefore unknown at 3200m. Sure, we can use pointers and clues to suggest he'll handle the two miles, but at the end of the day we don't know.
The pointers to suggest he will run the trip are that he's been the strongest horse home in two genuinely run lead up races against quality opposition.
His second to Via Sistina in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) was excellent, posting a very strong time figure and sectionally, arguably, unlucky not to edge her out as she kicked back to beat him.
While that second-placing could be argued, I think most would agree he should've won the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m). Duke De Sessa ran very well but was given a perfectly timed ride by Harry Coffey, with Buckaroo caught back in the wash and charging home against the pattern.
Just because you're fast home at the end of a shorter trip doesn't mean you necessarily want a longer one, but this is why it's a gamble. Similarly to knowing Vauban would do everything right, if you knew Buckaroo would relish the 3200m, you could mark him a very short favourite, but you don't.
What I think is in his favour this year is that the pace doesn't look breakneck, and he certainly has the speed to win. To counter that, he still needs to be ridden efficiently and not be getting too far back.
On the RAS weight adjusted ratings, Buckaroo brings clearly the best last-start performance, and that is hard to ignore. I think if the only query is him at 3200m, which is fair, he's still fairly priced and the horse to beat for mine.
In terms of other winning chances outside of Buckaroo and Vauban, I think there are eight: Kovalica, Land Legend, Onesmoothoperator, Sea King, Interpretation, Okita Soushi, Saint George and Sharp 'N' Smart.
Kovalica is such an interesting runner. He looked a proper Cups horse since his Group 1 Queensland Derby (2400m) win but we haven't seen him over that trip or further since.
His run in the Group 1 W S Cox Plate (2040m) was fine for a Cups trial, if you take out Via Sistina. That was an incredibly fast race and even sitting back, he's still run his first half slightly faster than his second half. Damian Lane on is a huge positive in this race and while he too is unknown at 3200m, he's got the ratings and profile to be competitive.
Land Legend is a tricky one. He was good beating Zardozi in Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m) but just did far too much wrong at Caulfield, sticking on okay. Outside of Buckaroo, he was the only horse I could give some chance out of that race here.
He should have no issue with 3200m and will enjoy a wide draw at Flemington but does need to settle. It wouldn't surprise if Purton rolled forward and tried to make this a stronger test. He'll need a new career peak, rated 116 on the RAS scale, but the pieces are there.
The two imports, Onesmoothoperator and Sea King, winners of the Geelong and Bendigo Cups respectively, are tricky to assess.
Onesmoothoperator in particular was tough to handicap, running to a new career peak here and doing it with sectionals that suggested he was even a bit better, around the 116 mark on the RAS scale.
That has him well in at the weights but his profile prior, a handicapper rated around the 109 mark, doesn't scream Melbourne Cup. My gut feel is that is as good as he can go.
Sea King was equally impressive winning at Bendigo but again has run a clear new peak out here first time, surprising even the stable that he was able to get into a Melbourne Cup.
That wasn't a strongly run Bendigo Cup and he was given a great ride, but I feel that is the weaker form line of the two Cups and while a winning hope, I think he's a bit short.
I've backed Interpretation in both Melbourne Cup attempts and he was excellent last year. Only Without A Fight and Soulcombe were home faster, and I think he's going just as well, if not a bit better than last year in a thinner year.
This year he's had the luxury of a spot secured, so Ciaron Maher has just been able to build his way and have him peak on the day which hasn't been the case prior.
While no match for Onesmoothoperator at Geelong, his late splits were excellent but he just couldn't sprint as quickly around the bend and got passed by Birdman who whipped around him. Interpretation's last 100m and work through the line was perfect for the rise to 3200m.
He too will need a new peak, but never discount the Ciaron Maher stable set to peak over a staying trip producing something they haven't before, the same of which can be said about Okita Soushi and Saint George who come through the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m).
Of the ones through that race, I thought Saint George really just showed something late there after looking like a genuine two miler in the run. He had bar plates on there which is generally a negative but ran much better and I can see him getting a great run on the map here.
Okita Soushi has been given good rides his past two but run very well and is coming into form at the right time.
Sharp 'N' Smart looked another wanting 3200m in that race, under pressure a long way out but grinding away for third. I've always queried him at a staying trip but that run really suggested he wants it, and he's a big price.
To wrap up, I have Buckaroo on top. He's through clearly the best races and the gamble on whether he'll run the trip is fairly built into the price.
Of the others, Interpretation is set to run a new peak here and I think he'll run a huge race out to 3200m with an ideal platform and a good draw. Initially I was against the Moonee Valley form but Saint George and Sharp 'N' Smart really looked 3200m horses off a solid tempo there and both go in my numbers.
Melbourne Cup 2024
Top tip: #2 Buckaroo
Also backing: #18 Interpretation
Best roughie: #6 Sharp 'N' Smart