3 minute read
We look at the Rupert Clarke & Thousand Guineas as the Melbourne Spring wraps up at Caulfield.
Moving the Rupert Clarke and Thousand Guineas to the backend of the carnival has worked a treat in my opinion and the former especially is a great edition.
We see the rematch between Another Wil and Jimmysstar and they dominate the betting, with good reason.
On their last start RAS rating they are 1-2 in this race with Another Wil running to 118 and Jimmy running to 114. Another Wil won that race at Flemington convincingly after being held up and showing an outstanding turn of foot.
A slowly run race seems to suit Another Wil. He's been poor in both mile handicaps as favourite now and while the race shape didn't suit in the Toorak, it's some query given this should be strongly run.
Jimmy was very good in the Flemington race, too far back off a slow speed but ripping home in some big late splits. He rated a pound down on his win at Caulfield prior where he ripped home off a strong gallop, which he should see again here.
Barrier 1 is the query for him but if he gets the splits, I think he's the horse to beat.
That said, there isn't much juice in either of their prices and I think we have to chip around. Buffalo River was back to basically his peak rating last start at this track and trip, working very hard early after a slow start, pushing on around the field to eventually lead and set a fierce tempo. He was just run down late but ran to a RAS rating of 114. He's been enigmatic this time in but if he jumps cleanly he's right in the mix.
The other one is Tuvalu who is first-up here. He's had his issues but is a very good horse at his best, rated 119 at his peak. He ran to 116 fresh winning the Wangoom over an unsuitable 1200m last time in and if he's near his best, he shouldn't be 20-1.
Something on Buffalo River and Tuvalu each-way to cause an upset.
Thousand Guineas
Onto the Thousand Guineas where Aeliana looks a very deserving favourite off a high-rating win in the Carbine Club on Derby Day, running to 111 on the RAS ratings. The past five Thousand Guineas winners have run a rating of 109-113 so Aeliana is already right up there, and there's no doubt her win was better than that of Zeitung in the Prelude one race after.
Aeliana's time figure is 14 pounds faster than Zeitung and she did it easily. Zeitung ran to a RAS rating of 108, three pounds below Aeliana, who has less racing under her belt and is proven at the mile. She's also trained by Chris Waller who has won the past two Thousand Guineas.
A few out of the Prelude ran well with a possibility of improving again at a mile. Lovelycut did a bit of early work and stuck on well while Benagil hit the line strongly from the back but I'm surprised Aeliana isn't shorter in the market. She's Waller/McDonald, off a very good time figure and a rating better than the Prelude. I can easily get her inside 2-1 and the price on offer seems more than fair.