3 minute read
Our second Group One of The Pinnacles sees Overpass attempt to defend his Winterbottom crown.
The placement of Overpass has been outstanding, picking and choosing races to target and coming out successful with three feature Perth sprints in 12 months, banking nearly $5 million in the process.
He returns to Ascot rated 122 on the Timeform scale, a rating he's achieved on four occasions, yet just once in Perth, when beating Amelia's Jewel in The Quokka (1200m) earlier this year.
His other two Perth wins, including last year's Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) have rated 119, and that sort of rating again on Saturday would surely see him win once more.
Of the horse's he's up against, only two have ever put up a Timeform rating above 120- Lady Laguna and Western Empire.
Lady Laguna ran to 121 when winning the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) but that is seeming more and more like an anomaly, with an average rating of 109.8 since (excluding one failure on very heavy ground).
They both come through the Group 1 Champions Sprint (1200m) at Flemington which was a muddling affair run at a slow pace, Overpass fading from on the pace, Lady Laguna similar.
Back around a bend definitely suits Overpass and drawing wide also suits. His best asset is speed, and while it can be trickier to judge pace down the straight, Parr (who gets it right 99% of the time) will have no option but to run them along, which is a good thing.
The different set up for Overpass here is how fresh he is. His other three Ascot wins have been off 140, 49 and 159 days- first-up for two and fresh off The Everest in the other. This year they've had another run since Everest day, where he struggled off 21 days, which is the same gap as Saturday.
While that's a slight knock, racing isn't black and white. I think the pace and dash home was why he struggled at Flemington, and if you want to go back further through his record, he's run to ratings 114 off just a two week turnaround, and a rating of 122 off 28 days, and he's a better horse now.
Fresh may be best for him but it's too convenient to cherry pick that stat as why he's improved so much in the past 18 months.
All put simply, he is a lot better than these if he turns up and runs his rating. Western Empire ran to 116 on the Timeform scale fresh over 1100m, looking a touch unlucky from the wide gate. I'm not as convinced he was a moral beaten- the winner Rope Them In was holding Western Empire comfortably through the line.
Western Empire does have a peak of 121 but it was a lifetime ago in the Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m) and I don't think he's sharp enough to be winning this at 1200m.
The interesting horse is Bravo Centurion, who is certainly sharp enough, a dominant winner over 1000m last time out, running to 116+ with Timeform. He led throughout and put nearly four lengths on his nearest rival, finishing full of running in the process.
He's won his past six but that was a big leap in ratings going from 106 to 116, however the rise to 1200m has to be the concern five of those six wins have been at 1000m, the one 1200m win in a Pinjarra Class 1 with a rating of 82.
He draws one inside Overpass so the pace will definitely be on early, but this will be a completely different ball game for Bravo Centurion with Overpass breathing fire on his outside.
The only other one with a rating thereabouts is Maharba who comes over having run to 116 last start at Flemington. He's a solid horse coming off a career peak drawn well. He's got claims and I'd much rather be with him at double the price of Lady Laguna and Western Empire. If he's starting double figures on the TABtouch market, he could be worth a saver.
Some have tried to overcomplicate this race when in reality it's such an easy bet to have. If Overpass was coming here off his Sydney Stakes win, he's in the red, and we have three distinct data points at this track and trip that say he's simply better than these horses.
He started $3 in this race last year and should've been $2. Now he's $3 again having put in his worst run eight starts, yet he still beat home the main market danger. We've backed him in every one of his Perth starts to date and there's no reason to change that now.
Winterbottom Stakes 2024
Tip: #1 Overpass at $3.10 with TABtouch
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