3 minute read
We look around the grounds for the final Saturday of the season.
Caulfield
A couple of nice two-year-old winners who will be looking to get a jump on the returning early season three-year-olds.
I Am Velvet remained unbeaten at her third start, still doing plenty wrong when wanting to lay out but ultimately proving too strong for impressive maiden winner Dom.
She's run to a slight new peak of 99 on the R&S scale, up from 95 the start prior. The overall time looks strong compared to the card but that is trickier than usual to line up given the surface deteriorated badly late in the day.
For some recent reference, we made Manolo Bling's debut win 96, while First Settler is rated 100+.
Nevertheless, I Am Velvet looks to have plenty of upside given her developing racing manners and looks capable of measuring up in some of the earlier fillies' races in the Spring.
Public Attention was the other two-year-old winner on the card and has run to 96 on debut, which sits basically bang on average for male two-year-old winners in the Winter months.
He's a well-bred colt by Written Tycoon who should continue to improve.
Not quite the seven-length win of the John Monash, but Recommendation proved he's a fair bit better than these Winter sprints, far too good again in the Bletchingly Stakes.
The John Monash was a tricky race to rate given the obviously inflated margins, but this was more in line with what we'd expect from both the horse and this race as a whole.
Recommendation has run to 112 here, down from 116 in the Monash. His previous peak was also 112 when third to Veight in the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley, and it appears he'll be given his opportunity to return to The Valley in the Spring with the Manikato Stakes on the radar.
While that race has dropped in quality since The Everest, it has a better spot in the Spring now and a rating of 112 won't be enough to feature.
The weakest winner of the Manikato in a long time was Jonker in 2021, who beat Bella Nipotina and ran to 116, but I'd forecast closer to a 120 rating to be required this year.
Morphettville
The Lightning Stakes for two and three-year-olds headlined the card in Adelaide and it was the older division that came out on top with Lingani stepping up off benchmark form to deny top two-year-old filly Kuroyanagi.
Lingani has run to a new peak of 97 on the R&S scale, which is well below a typical Lightning winner.
In recent years, three-year-olds have dominated the race, winning eight of the past ten runnings, but only three of those winners have been rated under 100, all three-year-old fillies.
Wild Rain ran to 94 in 2015 and Viddora ran to 99 in 2016, which will give Lingani's connections some hope, Viddora ending up a dual Group One winner.
Nature Strip is clearly the best winner of the race when dominating Sunlight in 2018 and running to 116.
Looking at solely two-year-olds, it's a solid return from Kuroyanagi, who placed in both the Blue Diamond Prelude and Blue Diamond itself behind Hayasugi.
We have her rated 108 at her peak and she's returned with a 100 rating here. Of the 24 two-year-olds to have contested this race in the past ten years, only Bandipur (103 – 1st) and Parlophone (102 – 1st) have run a better rating, including Sunlight, who ran second to Nature Strip but was beaten six lengths, running to 94.
Sunlight was also Group 1 placed as a two-year-old having run third to Estijaab in the Golden Slipper, and held a peak rating of 116+ as a two-year-old – eight pounds higher than Kuroyanagi, and resuming in the Lightning six pounds lower than Kuroyanagi.
Overall it doesn't look the strongest editions of a unique race but Kuroyanagi is a good filly who ran very well chasing a hot tempo in the Blue Diamond Stakes. I have my reservations whether she can win a Group One but she's at least on track to be competitive.