3 minute read
Japan Cup not a complete pipe-dream for Aussie mare.
Australian horses targeting the Japan Cup can often be met with scepticism, but Timeform ratings suggest Duais could do Australia proud in what is considered one of the world's toughest races.
The Edward Cummings-trained five-year-old owns a peak Timeform rating good enough to be a place chance in an average year of the 2400-metre Group 1 and a winning chance if she continues to progress.
"In the past five years, the average Timeform rating required to win the Japan Cup has been 127, which is the same as the Cox Plate and one pound less than the Queen Elizabeth Stakes," Racing And Sports senior handicapper Simon Dinopoulos said.
"Duais earned a rating of 120+ off her win in the Tancred Stakes and when you take into account her mares' allowance she rates 124.
"When you consider the average third placegetter in the Japan Cup in the past five years has rated 123, she would have to be considered a top-three chance if she were to produce her peak rating.
"To be a winning chance, she would need to improve around two lengths."
The highest-rating Japan Cup winner in the past five year was 2018 winner Almond Eye, who came out at 129 while her 2020 win earned a rating of 124.
The other winners in the past five years have been Cheval Grand (127) in 2017, Suave Richard (124) in 2019 and Contrail (128) last year.
Duais rated 105 when disappointing in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at her most recent outing, which followed her Tancred Stakes (2400m) win and a 118+ effort when winning the Australian Cup (2000m).
Her peak rating in her previous campaign came when running to 113 when winning the Group 3 Coongy Cup (2000m) at Caulfield, a lift of three points on her best efforts as a three-year-old, when second in the Group 1 ATC Oaks (2400m) and victorious in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks (2200m).
Duais's win in the Tancred Stakes made her eligible for an AU$4.4m bonus if she were to win the Japan Cup, which carries an AU$4.3m winner's purse.
This year's Japan Cup will be run on Sunday 27 November, 26 days after her major Australian spring target, the $8 million Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m).