3 minute read
We look at some big ratings and key points to take from Derby Day.
Thousand Guineas Picture
Two key lead ups to the Thousand Guineas kicked off Derby Day. Aeliana won the Carbine Club impressively and drew instant comparisons to stablemate Fangirl who won this race by a similar margin in 2021.
On the Racing & Sports ratings, Aeliana has actually run a slightly better rating than Fangirl, who went to 110 that day. Aeliana comes in at 111 which is the third highest rating winner in the past ten years, headed by Dalasan (115) and Comin' Through (113).
Fangirl didn't have the option to go to the Thousand Guineas as it wasn't placed where it is now, but Aeliana, as it stands now, would be the highest rated horse there, with Tuesday's Amanda Elliott a chance for something else to put their hand up.
Aeliana's win out-rated The Vanity one race after over 1400m won by Zeitung, who has run to 108 on the RAS ratings. There was only small margins between the first six home here and there's far more exposed form around them. I'd be taking Aeliana comfortably over Zeitung in a Thousand Guineas.
Oaks Picture
The Wakeful has been the key lead up to Thursday's VRC Oaks and this year looks no different with Treasurethe Moment holding off Powers Of Opal with a huge gap back to the rest.
A slowly run race here and they've really flown home, albeit probably assisted by the tailwind in the straight, and the winning rating is right up there with Treasurethemoment running to 109 on the RAS ratings, which is the highest Wakeful rating in the past ten years.
Three horses have done the Wakeful/Oaks double in that time: Willowy, Miami Bound and Aristia, while Personal and Zardozi placed in the Wakeful and went on to win the Oaks in that time. Here are all the ratings from those horses and how much they improved to win the Oaks on Thursday.
| Year | Horse | Wakeful Rating/FP | Oaks Rating |
| 2023 | Zardozi | 102 (2nd) | 111 (+9) |
| 2021 | Willowy | 103 (1st) | 105 (+2) |
| 2020 | Personal | 105 (2nd) | 109 (+4) |
| 2019 | Miami Bound | 106 (1st) | 110 (+4) |
| 2018 | Aristia | 106 (1st) | 108 (+2) |
Treasurethemoment running to 109, and Powers Of Opal going 105 in second, are excellent Oaks trials, and I think the runner up is the one to be with.
She wasn't an unlucky loser because the winner has still run the fastest last 400/200m but Powers Of Opal just had too much work to do chasing, and I think she wants a tougher staying test than that.
The expected rating had Powers Of Opal going 109 vs Treasurethemoment 104 and while that isn't everything, I think you have to give Powers Of Opal the edge on Thursday. Lose the battle, win the war etc etc.
Coolmore
Switzerland was an outstanding winner of the Coolmore Stud Stakes and just drilled home the fact that when Waller sets one for a big race, you just have to bonus them, because he was the one who hit this with no other target races on the way.
The win was electric and has rated very highly, coming in at 125 on the RAS ratings.
That's the equal second highest rating ever in the Coolmore, only bettered by Weekend Hussler at 126 in 2007.
125 sits alongside Home Affairs, Flying Artie, Exceedance and Gold Edition as recent winners and is backed up by the strongest time figure on the card. He's a very good colt, it just depends how much more we get to see of him from now on.
Derby
Goldrush Guru was given a great ride by Jamie Kah to win the Victoria Derby and her decisions to push on and settle on pace was the key to victory.
He's run to 110 on the RAS scale which is on the low side for the past ten years, but becoming more like the typical winner. Tarzino, Prized Icon and Hitotsu all went 116 in that period while Riff Rocket ran to 115 last year.
Scary, China Sea and El Castello were all very good from the back and the sectionals just ever so slightly hint that Scary was as good, if not a better run than the winner, especially considering he pulled up with cardiac arrythmia.
In terms of looking forward, I don't see much out of this developing into a genuine Group class stayer past their three-year-old season, but the winner is a nice horse.
Empire Rose
One of the better races visually on the day with Atishu charging home to collar Amelia's Jewel on the line, the two favourites and best horses clearing out from the rest.
Atishu has recorded some big late splits to run Amelia's Jewel down and run to 117 on the RAS ratings, which is the third-highest Empire Rose winner in the past ten years, only bettered by Pride Of Jenni (121) and Melody Belle (118).
Atishu actually ran a better rating in this race last year when beaten by Pride Of Jenni, running to 118 before backing up to win the Champions Stakes with a career peak of 120.
She looks perfectly on track to do that again next week but bumps into a pretty handy 132 rated stablemate…
Amelia's Jewel going 116 is in line with her run in the King Charles and slightly off her 118 peaks, but I think we know now that she isn't going to be a 120 horse likely ever.
She can win a Group 1 mare's race if she manages to dodge a couple of the top ones, she was just beaten by a superior horse in Atishu on Saturday.