3 minute read
What might point you to picking the Cup winner?
All in a Name
When it comes to picking Tuesday's Melbourne Cup winner you really need to have the odds stacked as much as possible in your favour.
Studying race form can undoubtedly help sort the best from the worst chances but occasionally the longshot does get up and leave the poor punter penniless. Remember Viewed was 40-1 in 2008 before Prince Of Penzance in 2015 at 100-1.
But don't despair help is at hand and clues to the identity of this year's winner can be found by looking back through the history of the Cup which has been run 163 times.
Ideally this year's Melbourne Cup winner will have a single-word name with seven characters, have 'T" as a first initial, be handicapped around 52.5kg, carry number four saddlecloth, be drawn in barrier 11. Pity there is no such animal in the 2024 field.
But let's look closer.
The fact is that 89 horses with a single word name have won the Cup, 16 of them in the last 35 years, including five in a row - Dunaden (2011), Americain (2010), Shocking (2009), Viewed (2008) and Efficient (2007) plus Ethereal (2001) and Brew (2000) and also Fiorente then Protectionist, Almandin and Rekindling.
10 single named horses run in the 2024 Melbourne Cup.
Gold Trip (2022) was the last of 66 winners with a double-barreled name and interestingly there are 11 horses with this characteristic this year suggesting maybe number 67 might appear this year as many favourites this year have two names.
The first initial of the winner would be "T", which has been successful 17 times. There are two this year being The Map and Trust In You.
However other prominent first initials have been "M" (12 wins) – Manzoice, Mostly Cloudy, "B" (11 wins) – Buckaroo and "S" (12 wins) – Sharp 'N' Smart, Sea King and Saint George.
Another clue to consider is that 32 Cups winners have had a name with seven characters – Absurde, Zardozi and Sea King apply.
Another 22 Cup winners have had a name with eight characters and 21 have had nine characters.
Age & Sex Counts
Four and five-year-old horses have the best record in the Melbourne Cup with 45/47 wins respectively.
The last five-year-old to win was Gold Trip (2022). Before him Fiorente, Dunaden, Americain and Viewed then Makybe Diva in 2003 and Doriemus in 1995. The last four year old to win was Vow And Declare in 2019.
There are no Southern Hemisphere-bred three-year-olds in this year's Cup. No Northern Hemisphere 3yos run this year either.
The last SH three-years-old galloper to be successful was Skipton (1941). Rekindling and Cross Counter have won as Northern Hemisphere 3yos in 2017 and 2018.
You are also keeping the odds in your favour if your selection is a male (146 wins) and not a female (17 wins), although it is worth noting that eight mares have won since 1988.
Significantly 71 stallions (Gold Trip was the last) have won the cup compared to 55 geldings and 20 colts.
Colour is the key
Bay coloured horses clearly have the best Cup record with 75 wins and were chasing their eighth win in a row in 2007 only to lose out to a grey.
Brown horses have won 38 cups, while chestnuts have won 35 having a purple patch of success winning eight Cups between 1987 and 1996.
Six greys have won the race, the last being Efficient in 2007. The popular Subzero (1992) was the previous winner.
All In Numbers
Theoretically the best horse in the Cup carries number one saddlecloth (Vauban). It is the third most successful and was last carried to victory by Gold Trip in 2022 as well.
Numbers to avoid are 21 (Positivity) while 7 (Just Fine), 16 (Valiant King) and 18 (Interpretation) have won just two Cups each.
Saddlecloth 20 (Mostly Cloudy) has won three cups but was last seen first past the post more than 100 years ago in 1897.
Barriers count
Verry Elleegant created history when she won after drawing barrier 18 as it was the first time that had seen success in the Cup.
And the situation is not much better for Sharp 'N' Smart (barrier 15) given that Makybe Diva (2003) and Silver Knight (1971) are the only winners from 15.
Vauban has the cherished barrier 11, which is the most successful with eight wins, five since the Cup went metric in 1972.
Weight A Worry
The Cup winner has mostly come from the weight range of 52 to 52.5kg winning 15 times. This year there are two horses with that weight scale – Absurde and Athabascan.
Winning Form Good Form
Looking at form, 24 of the last 54 Melbourne Cup winners started in the Caulfield Cup, and 13 of them won or were placed in the Caulfield event. Strangely none won between Viewed in 2008 and Vow And Declare in 2019. Gold Trip ran at Caulfield then in the Cox Plate before winning at Flemington. Without A Fight did the Cups double in 2023.
Eight Caulfield Cup starters will line up at Flemington.
A race start on the Saturday before the Cup had also been an advantage with 24 of the last 54 winners lining up on Derby Day in either the Mackinnon or the Hotham Hcp (Archer). In recent times that has turned around a bit and the Mackinnon and Archer are not even on the day now anyway.
Worth noting is that 14 of the last 34 Cup winners won at their previous start. Five horses – Absurde, Athabascan, Okita Soushi, Onesmoothoperator and Sea King fit that score.
Other Points
Without A Fight is not back to defend his title. But others to run again from last year include Vauban, Absurde, Okita Soushi and Interpretation.
New Zealander Maree Lyndon on Argonaut Style in 1987 was the first female rider to contest the Cup. Clare Lindop was the first Australian female to ride in the Cup when unplaced on Debben in 2003.
In 2007 history was made when two females rode in the Cup for the first time. New Zealand rider Lisa Cropp on Sculptor and Clare Lindop on Dolphin Jo. Both ran unplaced.
Of course Michelle Payne became the first woman to win in 2015. Jamie Kah, Hollie Doyle, Winona Costin and Rachel King have rides on Tuesday.