3 minute read
We’re back at Flemington again on Saturday for a competitive ten race card.
No feature racing this week after we got It'sourtime home in the Standish last week but the stand out horse, and our best bet, comes up in Race 8 in the form of Deakin.
He came to Australia rated 105 on the RAS scale, achieved when second to one-time Melbourne Cup fancy Crystal Black at the Curragh off a long spell.
He ran to 93 first up at Ballarat, midfield over a mile to shake the rust off and doing enough to suggest that peak was in touch next time out over 2000m.
Sent to Pakenham, he put the sword to his rivals over 2000m in a benchmark 78, winning by three lengths and running to 103, just two pounds shy of his best, with the splits to suggest he was even better than the three length margin.
He's up to benchmark 100 grade here but drops 7kg in the weights, meaning his last start rating comes out on top, and with the profile to suggest he'll continue to improve.
He finds a few chewed up ones who could throw up a rating to match but seem unlikely to, and a couple off long breaks with big weights, surely set for later.
Inside 2-1 now is approaching the right price but he ticks a lot of boxes here and he's one I fancy could be off the map throughout betting.
For the each way play we'll tick over to Race 9 where Lethal Thoughts caught the eye fresh at Geelong in a slowly run race, finishing well from last after drawing wide with the sectionals suggesting he could've been challenging the first few.
He ran to 99 there, not far off his best and the kinder draw here should see him much closer, ideally forward of midfield. There are a dozen here with a rating capable of winning this on their day and he certainly fits that bill, but I can make him single figures so the $12 seems a fair gamble.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 8 #15 Deakin at $2.80
Each-way play: Race 9 #10 Lethal Thoughts at $12/3.80