3 minute read
Well the rain kept coming last weekend and Eagle Farm ended up as a pretty heavy track unsurprisingly, and that’s no fun for anyone.
We’re back at Doomben this time around which is currently rated a Slow 6, and with a forecast threatening only possible showers on Saturday hopefully we get a bit of luck and the thing firms up in time for kick off.
The first thing I’ll say is there are some pretty tricky races particularly later on in the quaddie legs, so we’ll try to do most of our damage early on.
Except for our banker which comes in the last, so it’s probably more a get out of jail play, or a taxi ride home.
Discreet has found a nice race once again and looks ready to run another bottler as she continues her excellent recent run.
You may remember we made her the lay two weeks ago, and she played ball to some degree by finishing third but it was a super impressive run at this track and trip nonetheless.
She jumped from gate 16 in a capacity field, got held up for most of the straight and still had the hide to surge home when the split came, and nab one of the minor placings.
Kelly Schweida’s filly jumps out of gate seven today and should be able to establish a much more favourable position in running.
She carries just half a kilogram more today and looks primed to grab a fourth win at her favourite track.
The $3.50 looks pretty nice at this point.
Avaladyluck and Regular look the testing material but both are very beatable. Discreet was pegging back plenty of ground on the former in the concluding stages here two weeks ago while Avaladyluck tends to play up a lot in her races and has never run here before.
Plus Discreet had the wood on her when they met at Eagle Farm two runs back.
Our lay of the day is Pepperwood, who is currently favourite in the Powerade Open Handicap (1615m).
He’s come up at $3.60 with TAB Sportsbet dropping back in grade after a 1.8L second in the Tattersall’s Mile two weeks back but he won’t find this much easier despite the downgrade in class and it’s now 359 days since his last win.
It’s a very open looking race with half a dozen winning chances who are all better weighted than Pepperwood.
Mukaddamah Son is a handy one resuming off a short break. His fresh record is solid while his numbers at this track and trip are very sound.
Garozzo is back up here after running second to Gazza Guru at the Grafton carnival and brings a different formline into this one.
Ferment is a well-rated three-year-old who has been well backed for this while Putyourfaithinme and even Bid Spotter have claims.
The bet of the day is in the race prior where Carmine King is currently rated a $3 chance to grab a second-straight win in Class 6 grade.
He was super impressive three weeks back at Eagle Farm over 1200, and should only improve with the extra trip on offer here.
The handicapper has given him an extra 2kg for his troubles, but that comes straight back off with the talented apprentice Anthony Allen in the saddle.
He may well even find this one a bit easier than three weeks back given Keep It Moist is next in the market as a $5 chance, and she was beaten 6.5L by Carmine King in that race three weeks back.
I’m tipping that $3 won’t be around by jump time.
BANKER: Race 8 No 2 Discreet @ $3.50
BET OF THE DAY: Race 3 No 1 Carmine King @ $3
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4 No 2 Pepperwood @ $3.60