3 minute read
The first Group 1 of 2015, The Orr Stakes, headlines the return to Caulfield this weekend.
The big question for punters is; what do we make of Dissident?
There is little doubting that at his best Dissident is the horse to beat. In the view of Racing And Sports he was one of five horses to post genuine top class form in the spring and one of only three horses in this race with a Timeform rating above 120.
The others are Happy Trails and Beaten Up but both of them aren't expected to be producing their best form here, the former not a noted first up performer, and the latter on the comeback path from a length injury-enforced spell.
But it is never so simple as just piling into the highest rated horse in the field, if it was we'd all be betting away from a beach in the Whitsundays.
It's one thing to make accurate measurements of a horses performance after the race, that can be almost scientific, but there is a lot more art involved in using those measurements to make accurate predictions before the race.
If there is one thing that is more certain than Dissident being the best performed horse in the race it is that he was below his best (well below his best) last time.
So how much do we factor in from column A: He's the best. And from column B: Last time he was not at his best.
Answer this correctly and we are starting to make our way to the Whitsundays...
Unfortunately this is where things get most difficult and where many fall down.
The quickest way to fall at a hurdle is to overcommit, and it's easy to do in this scenario. It's easy to say Dissident was ordinary last time and therefore he is gone, finished, kaput... It is perhaps just as easy to ignore it entirely.
The truth - or out best guess of it - probably sits somewhere in the middle, where the truth tends to hide out in most debates.
The thinking here is Bayesian, maintaining but updating our views as more information comes to hand.
So, most importantly, what does all this mean for Dissident this weekend? In our opinion at least, it means he is a fantastic gamble at 2/1 and bigger in a race where he looks to get control of the pace at a course and distance that suits him ideally.
Dissident Impresses At Trackwork
2015 Jeep Australia Stakes Group 2 January 24 - Moonee Valley
An each way play presents itself earlier on the card with a stablemate of Dissident, Thinking Of You, stepping out in race 2.
Here she tackles a couple of smart fillies in Royal Snitzel and Afleet Esprit, both who trade shorter than her in early betting.
Thinking Of You is fancied to turn out the best filly of this trio, and while she will be better at 1400m next time she can certainly mount a strong winning challenge here.
Worth having her in the pocket at as much as 5/1 in places.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL:
Bet Of The Day: Melbourne R8 #2 Dissident @ $3.25
Each Way Play: Melbourne Race 2 #7 Thinking Of You @ $6.00