3 minute read
Big money on offer has ensured that there is big depth to the Caulfield card on Saturday.
The money has ensured big, deep fields but the race conditions - the four Gold races are run at set weights - have left the chances of some looking very slim, and ensured some ruling favourites.
One of those is Trust In A Gust who rates clear top in race six, the Gold Sprint.
In a case like this it pays to remember that it doesn't matter that you like the horse, all that matters is how much you like the horse - a concept you can read more about here.
No credible measure of racehorse performance could suggest that Trust In A Gust isn't the horse to beat here. His form in the spring was terrific and he meets much lesser opposition here at level weights.
He's the most likely winner, but it comes down to just how likely.
Using Don Scott's kilogram ratings - which you can use for yourself here - Trust In A Gust has a rating of 56.5 and sits 7 kilograms clear of his nearest rival Tycoon Tara on this measure.
She comes here the fitter horse, and he's not likely to be at his peak here first up, so the margin back to Tycoon Tara is perhaps more like half of that, with her improving slightly to 51 and and him just off his best at 54.5.
Tudor and Afleet Esprit could both be rated 48.5 looking at their current ratings profile.
Converting ratings to odds is a topic that many punters ask about. There are complex ways to go about it but there are also simple ways that are similarly effective.
A simple way is to use a mathematical distribution like the one described in the table below which is a version of tables discussed in Don Scott’s Winning series of books which provides a good, simple way of converting ratings into chances.
Using this table we see that a 3.5kg margin from our top pick back to Tycoon Tara has the mare winning 33 times to every 100 wins by Trust In a Gust. Tudor and Afleet Esprit each win 8 times per Trusty ton.
If we had up those values - Trusty 100, Tara 33, Tudor 8 and Afleet Esprit 8 - we get 149 races and a percentage of those races going to each of our top four rated horses.
To convert this into a percentage, and therefore a price, we simply divide the individual wins into the total. Of course we don't presume to be nailing 100% of races in just four picks, and so we build in a margin much as the bookmakers do in reverse - in this case a 15% margin and so our four-horse market is set to 85%.
Trust In A Gust = 100/149 = 0.67 x 0.85 = 0.57 or $1.75
Tycoon Tara = 33/149 = 0.22 x 0.85 = 0.19 or $5.25
and so on...
So now we know how likely we think Trust In A Gust is to win, not just that he is the most likely winner.
Looking at the market and it seems that the bookmakers are willing to offer us slightly better odds than our $1.75 with the even money on offer representing a 7% overlay.
That's good enough to make Trust In A Gust the Melbourne Mail's Bet Of The Day. Give him strength.
An each way play comes in the the ninth race on the card, a terrific sprint race where the very talented Sabatini steps out en route to the Group 1 Sangster Stakes in Adelaide.
She's a very smart filly with her three performances this preparation all full of merit. Her close in the Kewney last time out was terrific and it might be good enough to help her to overcome the wide draw she faces today.
She rates highly and with even luck in running she's a better winning hope than the early odds on offer imply.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Caulfield Race 6 #1 Trust In A Gust at $2.00
Each Way Play: Caulfield Race 9 #10 Sabatini @ $7.00