3 minute read
Manhattan Avenue curls through Brooklyn and there are some side streets there that are best avoided.
Therefore, if you are going to take a stroll around Manhattan Avenue it's advisable to take a map, and the same rule applies if you are going to the Valley to back Manhattan Avenue tomorrow.
Of course we don't want to get bogged down with the map and miss the sights and sounds around us, but it's always worth scanning one and getting our bearings before heading out.
Rather ironically, in the case of Manhattan Avenue at Moonee Valley tomorrow, there are potential traffic issues.
He jumps from barrier one, traditionally an awkward draw around the tight-turning Valley - See Moonee Valley course stats here - and there are plenty of speed horses to the outside that potentially cross him and leave him back in the traffic of Williamsburg trying to get up to Greenpoint.
So we've got an idea about how we are getting around, but now comes the important part; picking our driver and our vehicle.
Traffic issues are a problem for a sweaty old bloke in a yellow taxi, but they can probably be avoided by Valentino Rossi on a motorbike.
Statistically speaking the market spends too much time looking at the map and not enough time worrying about who's driving and how fast the vehicle is.
On Saturday Manhattan Avenue is the top-rated horse on deeds to date, his first up run was rock solid and his form behind Stratum Star and Kermadec. He's a good vehicle and his driver, Damien Oliver, knows the route like the back of his hand.
In 2069 trips around the Valley Oliver has found the fastest way home 19 percent of the time.
That's impressive, but what is more impressive is that for every 100 winners that the market has expected Oliver to ride in that time he has ridden 107.
An impact value of 1.07 is superb given a rider with Oliver's reputation goes some way to pushing up his own expectations and we haven't scaled that market back to 100 percent, so 1.07 comes against a market that is expecting more than one winner per race.
The bottom line to all of this is that the map is important but if we can miss plenty while our head is stuck in the map and there might be more value to be had by investing in someone who knows the way around.
We'll do that just that for our best bet, hiring Damien Oliver as a guide for our stroll down Manhattan Avenue.
On an even (and rather ordinary in places) Moonee Valley card the each way play comes in race eight with Golden Mane.
He's raced well in the right form races leading up to today and just needs things to fall his way to be giving a race like this a big shake.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 3 #1 Manhattan Avenue @ $3.50
Each Way Play: Race 8 #11 Golden Mane @ $9.00