3 minute read
There have probably been more pointers to the Melbourne Spring the best part of 17,000 kms away at Goodwood than there will be at the Valley on Saturday.
Big Orange won the Goodwood Cup and announced that Melbourne was on the agenda and the third-placed Trip To Paris, who came out best at the weights, looks set to head this way as well.
Sussex Stakes runner-up Arod has been mentioned as a Cox Plate possible and his current run of form would suggest he'd be in the race up to his ears if he was to make the trip.
Luca has had a couple of promising handicappers run well and Connecticut runs tonight with a profile that would demand respect in Melbourne if he were to head that way.
The meeting at the Valley on Saturday looks very sleepy in comparison, but there's a winner in every race they say, and they are all well worth finding.
Raposo steps out against a well-exposed lot in race seven and he should have the upside to improve on by them.
He relished the step to a mile last time, winning impressively, and things look no tougher for him today, in-fact, this looks a much less competitive handicap for him and he should be up to taking full advantage.
The slight query would be where he gets in the run. He's likely to be midfield or worse in-running, which sticks a bit when taking odds shy of 2/1, but there's little doubt about his talent and ultimately we'd rather back ability than a map - ability that in our view points to him being an even money chance.
Valiant Warrior is currently trading between $4.50 and $5.00, not quite in the 'each way play' category, but he's well worth a mention here, if not just for his own ability and claims here but for the fact that his main rival in the sixth looks well under the odds.
Tawteen comes up an even money pop, fair enough perhaps on her form from the spring of last season, but way under the odds on what we saw of her in three runs in the autumn.
She was a winner fresh, but in sluggish figures across the board, and she went on to be well beaten in a couple that followed.
She's back against the handicapper now, and as mentioned her spring form shows her well placed at this level, but at 1200m first up and with a bit to prove from last time she's well worth opposing, and Valiant Warrior is the horse to oppose with.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #11 Raposo @ $2.50
Each Way Play: Race 6 #10 Valiant Warrior @ $4.80