3 minute read
It's Super Saturday at Flemington with the Newmarket and Australian Cup the highlights on the Melbourne Autumn Carnival's biggest day.
The Blamey Stakes looks a terrific betting heat with market leader Stratum Star primed to run a big race over the mile.
He arrives third up off runs in high pressure Group 1 races - his most recent effort when second in a Futurity the stand out piece of form on offer in the Blamey.
That run was in line with Stratum Star's peak performances from the spring and he was following a familiar pattern - running below form first up from a break before spiking second up.
Searching for patterns can be a dangerous (and expensive) game for punters but it's worth noting that Stratum Star peaked to win the Rupert Clarke third up and held his peak up to the mile when placed in the Toorak back in the spring time - that has to bode well for his chances.
He has certainly been a reliable race horse and that reliability leads us to confidently betting to his ratings profile - a ratings profile that makes him far and away the most likely winner of the Blamey.
In racing it's not about which horse you like, it's all about how much you like that horse. Stratum Star is going to be at the forefront of most people's thinking. In our view he is clearly the most likely winner, but it's how likely we think he is that is going to make us a profit on the punt.
Racing And Sports arrive at 45% or $2.20 and we are more than happy to back him around the 2/1 mark in early betting.
Click here for TopBetta's Blamey Stakes market
The Sires Produce lacks any real star power but it's an interesting betting race.
The market is headed up by Revolving Door and Seaburge who ran 1-2 at Sandown over 1300m in lead up to the Sires, running away and putting a space between them and the third horse.
Nothing wrong with that form, but it was hardly a high-rating race and they look a little bit tight in the betting, establishing a couple of opportunities to bet away from them.
One of them is the Sydney colt Detective who despite being a three-start maiden has the form/ratings to match anything in the field and his three seconds have come at the hands of the Magic Millions winner, the Riesling winner and the Todman winner - safe to say things have been working out around him.
At between $6 and $7 in betting he's one we'd like to have on side.
The race might also provide a good bank building oppurtunity for those playing TopBetta Tournaments this week.
The Australian Cup Tournament not only has a good cash pool but the top 20 get tickets into the massive Tournament for the Championships where $100,000 goes on the line.
That's a ticket worth having and playing Detective along with Jackson - rates well and has upside - and Power Trip - did enough in a hot Blue Diamond - can push us towards that early on the card and give us some ammunition to make a push up the leaderboard in the Newmarket and Australian Cup later on the card.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 4 #2 Stratum Star @ $2.90
Each Way Play: Race 2 #3 Detective @ $6.00