3 minute read
Top prizemoney has ensured good quality fields at Caulfield this Saturday but with many races run at set-weights there may be fewer chances than it first appears.
The Vobis Mile is a decent example of a set-weights structure greatly advantaging the better performed horses at the top of the list - namely Red Bomber and Zebrinz.
Re-handicapping the field using Timeform ratings can quickly illustrate this advantage.
Red Bomber (Timeform 111) 58kgs
Zebrinz (104) 55kgsSabkhat (99) 53kgs
Entre Nous (97) 52kgsRight down to the lowest Lordfontein - rated 82 which would give him something like 45kgs, a 13kg disadvantage from the get go!
At first take of all of that we would simply be all over Red Bomber, and that may not necessarily be such a bad play, but unfortunately it's rarely so simple and further investigation is required.
Both Red Bomber and Zebrinz come through a high-rating Victoria Handicap last time out. Both were well handled there by the winner Black Heart Bart but he is a genuine chance in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes up at Randwick - there are no Bart's lurking amongst their rivals today.
Red Bomber did run below par in the Victoria Handicap, looking a touch flat, but there was plenty of merit to the run of Zebrinz, particularly when you consider that his form spiked up to the mile in the spring.
Zebrinz also spiked to win this race last year, returning a strong figure that announced him as a fairly useful prospect before that good spring campaign.
There's a few things lining up to suggest that Zebrinz fires in the same race this year and given that his price, better than $4.00 in early markets, makes plenty of appeal in a race where those chances dissipate so quickly.
The same formline is to the fore in the Anniversary Vase later in the day. The key chances look to represent either that Victoria Handicap formline or the Hareeba formline from Mornington.
The Hareeba returned a much softer figure than the Victoria Handicap, so we will be siding up with the Caulfield line. Charmed Harmony was enormous there and he makes some appeal, as does Jimando, but we want to have something on Yesterday's Songs each way.
He's been good all campaign without winning, which is very Yesterday's Songs, but assuming the inside ground holds up he's well drawn off a couple of big runs and really should be in the thick of the action at around $6.00.
It's also well worth noting that Caulfield will be part of TopBetta's All Aged Stakes Day tournament where 25k is on the line.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 4 #2 Zebrinz @ $4.20
Each Way Play: Race 8 #7 Yesterday's Songs @ $6.00