3 minute read
The (just outside of) Melbourne Mail is looking to end 2016 with a winner and Smart Dart can provide us with just that in the second race on Pakenham's Cup Day card.
Early betting for the second race at Pakenham centres around joint-favourites Gallant Harmony and Smart Dart who clashed two weeks ago at Ballarat.
Gallant Harmony came out on top there but he got a track that played into his hands. It probably wasn't a track that advantaged leaders so much as it was a negative for those looking to sit back and run on.
Gallant Harmony has the edge in terms of racing pattern but Smart Dart's first up win points towards him having the edge in talent and the betting at Ballarat suggested as much with Smart Dart starting 3-1 v Gallant Harmony 13-2.
The result at Ballarat has brought those prices (in early betting anyway) back level but given the result there potentially flattered Gallant Harmony we are willing to bet on an overreaction.
For an each way play we will look to the feature where Ballarat form is again to the fore through winner Pilote D'Essai.
As mentioned, the track shouldn't be seen as a reason to knock what Pilote D'Essai did at Ballarat but he looks slightly vulnerable here all the same with 2500m potentially as far as he wants to go and his attitude continues to look out of line with his talent.
We are happy to have something each way on Swacadelic who chased Qewy home at Sandown last time. That's a solid piece of form for this and he is probably better suited back to 2500m - the steady tempo at Sandown a big plus for him last time over the two miles.
Click here for Pakenham markets from TopBetta
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 2 #5 Smart Dart @ $3.00
Each Way Play: Race 7 #6 Swacadelic @ $6.00