3 minute read
The first of the three 'majors' has arrived with the Caulfield Cup centre stage this weekend and it's a seriously competitive edition of the great race.
We won't be skirting around the edges here at The Melbourne Mail, finding both a best bet and an each way bet a race that looks a terrific contest both on the track and in the betting ring.
It's a compressed handicap this year with a 56kg top weight and that is going to play into the hands of the better performed horses. Humidor looks to be a bit undersold off a 'flat run' last time out and around the $8.00 mark we are keen to be with him in the race he has been targeted towards all spring.
When given a genuine tempo to run at Humidor showed his worth, smashing up the Makybe Diva Stakes field at Flemington and returning a peak in line with his strong Australian Cup win back in the autumn where he gunned down last year's Caulfield Cup winner Jameka against the pattern of the day.
The Makybe showed that he is going as well as ever this prep. The Turnbull turned plenty off, Humidor hanging in and failing to get past Ventura Storm in the race for second behind Winx. But the Turnbull was a bridging run. Much was made of a clash with Winx but the smart stable behind Humidor were surely uninterested in that duel. Taking down the best 2000m horse on the planet for 500k is hardly as appealing as taking down a pack of staying handicappers for $3 million.
Even giving weight all around his best ratings hold up against anything on offer here and with the best trainer of stayers in the country behind him - and a jockey the equal of any right now - he looks a must bet around the $9.00 mark.
At bigger odds the French import Marmelo makes plenty of appeal. He will surely have the Flemington two-miler in the corner of his eye but he's got smart form and big upside which makes him impossible to dismiss around Caulfield.
If 2400m far enough to draw out his superior stamina? Not sure, but at 16-1 we don't need to be sure. His Kergorlay form will be, and should be, seen as an appealing piece of form coming to Australia given that race's history down under but it's his Barbeville win back in April that has our eyebrows nice and high.
He was ~11 lengths faster over the Chantilly 3000m than any horse in the past dozen years when bashing up on subsequent Group 1 winner Bateel that day. That's too impressive to not have something each way here and perhaps something for Flemington in two weeks time.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #1 Humidor @ $9.00
Each Way Play: Race 8 #2 Marmelo @ $17.00