3 minute read
The first of three Pinnacles Group Ones takes place on Saturday with the Railway Stakes.
Locally trained horses have won the past nine editions of the Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m), but the raiders have a strong hand this year and the Timeform ratings to back it up.
The market is headed by Light Infantry Man, rated 116 on the Timeform scale since coming to Australia, achieved last start when an impressive winner of the Listed Chester Manifold Stakes (1600m) at Flemington.
A typical Railway Stakes has been won with Timeform ratings ranging from Western Empire (121) to Regal Power (109), with the median winning rating sitting at 115.
Light Infantry Man is rated up to a typical winner off last start, but it's worth noting he's got ratings of 122 and 121 in Europe before coming here, the best of those coming in the Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois (1600m) at Deauville when second to star filly Inspiral.
He was gelded leading into this preparation and having run an Australian peak last start, there's every case to be made he can improve on that 116 rating again here, with James Mcdonald coming across to ride from a soft gate. He's the right favourite and the horse to beat.
Belclare has been excellent in two starts for Bjorn Baker in Sydney, winning twice at Group 2 level over 1400m with Timeform ratings of 116 and 115. She is a dual Group 1 winner over 1600m in New Zealand, rated 111 and 109 on those occasions, but does pay the penalty at the weights here with 57.5kg as a mare.
She's been given easy leads in her two wins here and the wide draw in a big field here will make it tough for her.
Democracy Manifest comes over for Chris Waller, who trained Good Project to win the Railway in 2015, the last interstate winner. He's rated 114 and could arguably be rated a bit higher if not for his racing pattern which often sees him back in the field and running on.
His sectionals in some strong races have been outstanding but it could be a similar case again Saturday, drawn very wide and needing everything to fall his way. He's also had an injury cloud leading in which is never ideal, but he's good enough to be competitive.
Socks Nation comes through the best race, running third in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) behind Atishu and Amelia's Jewel at Flemington. The Queensland Oaks winner ran to a new peak Timeform rating of 112 there which has her firmly in the mix at the weights. She's drawn wide also and may have to work early, and she has started 100-1, 80-1 and 60-1 at her past three starts.
That's not to discount the locals however, of which Zipaway clearly looks the pick, and one of the hardest to beat.
Last year's WA Guineas winner, he's rated 115 by Timeform which is right up to this, and he gets in with 53kg which has him amongst the best weighted in the field.
His 115 was achieved in last year's Group 1 Northerly Stakes (1800m) as a three-year-old, and he showed he's not far off that first up off a long spell with a 109 rating effort in the Group 2 Lee Steere Stakes (1400m) in which he carried 59kg and didn't have the best of luck, poking through the inside for a narrow fourth.
Zipaway meets all of those ahead of him better at the weights and has an equal or bigger peak rating. He's the pick of the locals and a very good chance.
Super Smink is an interesting runner, and on the Timeform weight adjusted ratings, she brings the highest last start number into this field. She ran to 113 last start winning the Group 3 Asian Beau Stakes (1400m), but the big query for her is a mile.
She's run over 1600m once, starting an odds-on favourite in the WA Guineas and couldn't reel in Zipaway. She ran well, but that wasn't a strongly run mile, and her win last start was more a test of speed than stamina as well.
I'm happy to risk Super Smink at the trip and prefer Zipaway at the level weights given he can improve again out to a mile.
Light Infantry Man is the one to beat with Zipaway the danger. Democracy Manifest has some queries leading in but if he's 100%, he's right in the mix.