3 minute read
Chris Nelson provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Saturday Sunshine Coast on Saturday, 11th May 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
RACE 1
Hollindale Stakes Day on the Sunshine Coast again this year, we can be assured of a very wet surface. Plenty will be in the PEREILLE camp in this opening race, he resumes with a good fresh record & although yet to win on heavy ground has placed both attempts. His stats at this distance are very impressive & I'd suggest following any positive market leads. MIDNIGHT IN TOKYO raced very consistently all last prep which included 2 wins, gets through the ground well & looks the logical danger. LOST IN TRANSIT an improver second-up, there were excuses fresh.
Numbers: 4 – 7 – 5 – 17
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 2
Mile & a half on likely heavy (10) ground will be survival of the fittest. BAK DA MAN takes on stronger opposition than he's been racing of late however he will get through the ground & he's a one paced type who will just keep on going & going whereas many of his main rivals might be looking for an Uber halfway down the straight. RATTLE AND HUM the runners with upside, in good hands strikes a winnable race. BONNY EZRA & BOIS D'ARGENT are very hard to catch & note both are yet to win at this trip. REGAL LION in the market, not sure why as he's not at his best on heavy ground.
Numbers: 11 – 7 – 5 – 1
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 3
THALASSOPHILE clearly the class runner in this race however she will give away plenty of weight to all her rivals which is no easy task. I just keep coming back to her though as she has the stronger form lines & handles the wet well, definitely each-way though. SONORA impressed winning first start for Tony Gollan coming with a big finish, keen to follow her however the wet conditions don't look suitable, she may struggle? PARTY FOR ONE hasn't been far away all runs this prep, her form on wet ground clearly better than dry.
Numbers: 1 – 10 – 6 – 11
Suggested Bet: THALASSOPHILE EACH-WAY (small bet).
RACE 4
I'm guessing IMPERIAL FORCE will race in Sydney, sort of hoping as well as I don't need him in this race upsetting PERSPIRATION who looks the one to beat. Placed his first couple before very strong to the line running away from the opposition to win at Mornington his latest. No heavy track form to date however already a winner on soft. Going to throw JEMOMA ALPILAGE in the mix, she'll be big odds here however has done absolutely nothing wrong, she wants further, this will certainly feel like further!
Numbers: 2 – 6 – 16 – 8
Suggested Bet: PERSPIRATION TO WIN.
RACE 5
Very, very open race. I'll lean to the race fit THE BIG GOODBYE on an each-way basis hoping he can back up his first up win at Eagle Farm a fortnight back when big odds. He's consistent, handles wet ground & has obviously come up well this prep whereas he didn't the previous. NETTUNO races well here & the ground won't be a problem, expect improvement out of him second-up. MILLANE had accepted for Race 1 however connections have decided on this tougher race, no weight & I like him on wet ground.
Numbers: 1 – 6 – 14 – 4
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 6
Thought this was an ideal race for CORNICHE to break through this prep. He ran consistently without winning in Sydney during the autumn carnival down there & comes into this freshened up with the benefit of a trial. The only time he's raced on wet ground was a soft (5) victory over the Golden Slipper winner Shinzo as a 2yo. Probably not a great guide for the heavy here however I'll take the punt. STEFI MAGNETICA just kept on improving each run last prep, hard to believe she started with an Orange BM58 win & 4 starts later was narrowly beaten in a Group 1. ABOUNDING fitter & further suits whilst BASES LOADED is a very interesting runner from the Waterhouse/Bott yard, not raced for over a year however Group 1 placed behind Militarize when we last saw him.
Numbers: 3 – 12 – 10 – 5
Suggested Bet: CORNICHE TO WIN.
RACE 7 Best Bet
Sticking with HUETOR in the Hollindale, he ran second in the race last year behind the champ Zaaki & then went on to win the Doomben Cup (again). We saw how much he loves the wet ground when winning at Randwick last start & fitter third up he should prove hard to beat. JUST FOLK is a swimmer, backs up from winning the Hawkesbury Cup last week, definite winning chance. Jury is out for mine re KOVALICA, placegetter in the Doomben Cup last year he hasn't really gone on.
Numbers: 2 – 5 – 4 – 7
Suggested Bet: HUETOR EACH-WAY.
RACE 8
Looking forward to seeing the Kiwi filly MOLLY BLOOM go around here, she's definitely the class runner in the race & if travelled across well & acclimatised she's going to prove hard to beat. I'm going to lean to FIRESTORM who I'm not convinced about on heavy ground however was the eye-catcher out of the Princess Stakes at Eagle Farm a fortnight back, she wins the race with a clear crack at them earlier. LITTLE JEANIE & REDBREAST have upside & plenty of it.
Numbers: 18 – 1 – 15 – 19 – 11
Suggested Bet: FIRESTORM EACH-WAY.
RACE 9
Cracking race to wind up the day. ALL THAT PIZZAZZ is the class runner & will have to carry plenty of weight to win. I'm of the opinion he can as I'm not overly concerned about big weights in these short sprint races & he could well be the one sailing down the outside with top jock Mark Zahra driving him to the line. RUBIQUITOUS has won here in the past, races on speed & is capable of giving a big kick. ECONOMICS is an interesting runner, new to the Kendrick yard he fires fresh & is already a heavy track winner, big market watch.
Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 11
Suggested Bet: ALL THAT PIZZAZZ EACH-WAY.
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