3 minute read
The Tasmanian Racing season starts to heat up with the Newmarket at Launceston on Wednesday.
Launceston plays host to the Listed Tasmanian Newmarket Handicap (1200m) on Wednesday night with a competitive field which juxtaposes the established brigade against the up-and-comers.
The Inevitable has been the pinup horse for Tasmania since star mare Mystic Journey and will be aiming to win his second Newmarket having been successful in 2022, running to a Timeform rating of 110 on that occasion.
He's measured up well against some top company on the mainland and his current rating is 115 when fourth in the Listed Glasshouse Handicap (1400m) at Sunshine Coast with 60.5kg.
Looking at the past ten years, The Inevitable actually tops the list as the highest rated Newmarket winner, his 110 eclipsing I'm Wesley at 108 in 2019, with Hellova Street at 103 in 2015 the only other horse to crack 100 in that period.
He's got 61kg for a reason here and if he runs to his best, he's comfortably the horse to beat.
The gulf in ratings is evident when comparing him to second-elect Thespian Waters, a winner of his past five starts. He ran to a Timeform rating of 85 on resumption at Hobart which is up to his best, and while promising, it's a big leap, even with a hefty weight swing.
As a whole, I'm a bit suspect on that Hobart race where the time is slow and the margins heavily compressed as a result. Of the 16 horses here, 10 come through that race and Thespian Waters came from near last and flew down the outside to round them all up.
The one that was unlucky there was Geegees Gemstone who likely would've won if a gap was there for him at the 100m. He ran to 86 with Timeform there having carried 2.5kg more than Thespian Waters, and does hold a peak Timeform rating of 95 at this track and distance before a spell in the Royal Rambo.
Alvarinho could be an improver out of the Hobart race. She ran on well for second there and did place in a pair of mare's Group 3's last Summer with Timeform ratings of 96 and 98 which have her firmly in the mix.
It's hard to go past The Inevitable here. Even with the 61kg, he's got a massive class edge on his rivals, and as we've seen time and time again in Tasmania, if he's on song, he's simply better than his rivals here, none of whom particularly have the ratings profile that says they're going to step up and challenge.
Better than 2-1 being shopped with Ladbrokes for The Inevitable and I think that's a fair gamble.
Tasmanian Newmarket 2024
Tip: #1 The Inevitable at $3.20 with Ladbrokes