The 2011 Melbourne Cup Historical Preview

3 minute read

Australians don't need much more than those three famous words (The Melbourne Cup) to get excited.

Considered the most watched 200 seconds in Australia each year, this two mile handicap horse race means much more than an equine event. It's a day of community, a public holiday in Melbourne and a celebration nationwide. In 1895, while on a lecture tour, Mark Twain was quoted as saying "Nowhere in the world have I encountered a festival of people that has such a magnificent appeal to the whole nation. The Cup astonishes me." Let's check out last five editions of our First Tuesday in November.

• 2006 – DELTA BLUES 6g (Dance in the Dark x Dixie Splash) (16-1)

Jockey: Yasunari Iwata, Trainer: Katsuhiko Sumii

Barrier: 10, Weight: 56.0kg

Gross Time: 3:21.42, 600m Sectional: 35.82

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 23

2nd: Pop Rock (D Oliver-53.0kg), 3rd: Maybe Better (C Munce-50.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 125

Crowd: 106,691

It was going to be hard to compete with the year before for media interest. 2006 turned out to be a fascinating event for a far different reasons and from far wider fields. Japan had always been a player in the Australian industry but rarely before on the track itself. Eye Popper was given a good hope in 2005 but here we had two elite stayers in outstanding form. On top of the Japanese we had the world's biggest name in staying as Coolmore sent Yeats off an Ascot Gold Cup win but could be reproduce 4000m back to the hard and fast speed of our racing. Early indications suggested not as the hustle and bustle in the first 500m caused Yeats to drift back whereas Delta Blues had little drama sitting near the lead for a greater portion of the race. Kieron Fallon eventually worked Yeats to the lead and poured the pressure on trying to make it as strong a staying test as was possible. That suited the Japanese horses who are used to fast, intense races. With 300 to go Delta Blues had a margin but Damien Oliver on Pop Rock challenged and they drew away by four lengths. Pop Rock ducked in under the strain and Delta Blues nosed him out in an historic moment for Japanese racing. Jockey Iwata could only conjure the following English – “Very happy, very happy.”

• 2007 – EFFICIENT 4g (Zabeel x Refused The Dance) (16-1)

Jockey: Michael Rodd, Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

Barrier: 9, Weight: 54.5kg

Gross Time: 3:23.34, 600m Sectional: 35.58

Margin: 0.5L, Track: Dead, Starters: 21

2nd: Purple Moon (D Oliver-53.5kg), 3rd: Mahler (S Baster-50.5kg)

Timeform Rating: 123

Crowd: 102,411

Efficient showed as a 3yo that he had undeniable class over the longer trip. His Derby was a success for stamina over speed. However in spite of the good run at Moonee Valley, his Memsie, Turnbull and importantly Cox Plate runs were hardly inspiring. He must be an incredibly well grounded and clean winded horse to jump from 2040 to 3200 off four runs because his last start was the worst, at least on paper, for a Cup winner in many a long year. On settling Michael Rodd put Efficient one off the fence but 3L behind Ebor winner Purple Moon who had run an excellent but very unlucky 6th in the Caulfield Cup. The Europeans again wanted a fast tempo so Tungsten Strike led with Coolmore's Mahler, coming of English St Leger form, nearby. Of the favourites only the Caulfield Cup's Master O'Reilly was disappointing. As Mahler ran to the head of proceedings at the 400, Oliver was right there to challenge. He had given Purple Moon a 9.5 ride out of 10 – the only mark down because he lost. Efficient made up 5L in the last 300 getting his prey down in the final 75m and to be fair he deserved to win having had to make such substantial ground around the entire field. Injury has forced him out of this year's race.

• 2008 – VIEWED 5h (Scenic x Lovers Knot) (40-1)

Jockey: Blake Shinn, Trainer: Bart Cummings

Barrier: 8, Weight: 53.0kg

Gross Time: 3:20.40, 600m Sectional: 34.93

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 22

2nd: Bauer (C Brown-52.0kg), 3rd: C'est La Guerre (B Prebble-54.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 120

Crowd: 107,280

There is never a bad Melbourne Cup when Bart wins – even if it is 40-1. But this one had it all. Seven Europeans added to the race in many ways. Aidan O'Brien had three to run, Luca Cumani two and even Dermot was back. The race was spectacular from gate opens to a week later. You could sense something happening when the Ballydoyle trio worked forward early. The plan was to make the pace and it was a triangle of speed. Alessandro Volta led with Honolulu outside and Septimus in the trail. They were five in front with a mile to go. While this was happening others got great runs. Gallopin dropped out after chocking down but by the turn, Blake Shinn allowed Viewed to stride, hitting the lead a long way out. He was a sitting shot. At the 200 the challengers were coming to stop Bart's 12th win. Nose for nose over the last few metres it looked a dead heat. But the margin was found for the son of Scenic giving Bart G1 number 250. Lloyd Williams pair were unlucky not to finish much closer. While it was the closest margin in history there were other mayhem moments from the race. Luca Cumani was close again but as we'd learn later, imagine the madness if Bauer had won because it was revealed shockwave therapy treatment was illegally used up to a certain time to treat a muscular issue. Then it was shown that using the electronic timing devices, Bauer actually ran a quicker time than Viewed but that was because it is positioned in the saddle and Viewed was a longer barrelled horse. It was a great call by Greg Miles.

• 2009 – SHOCKING 4h (Street Cry x Maria Di Castiglia) (9-1)

Jockey: Corey Brown, Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

Barrier: 21, Weight: 51.0kg

Gross Time: 3:23.87, 600m Sectional: 36.60

Margin: 0.8L, Track: Dead, Starters: 23

2nd: Crime Scene (K McEvoy-53.0kg), 3rd: Mourilyan (G Schofield-54.5kg)

Timeform Rating: 119

Crowd: 102,161

It was 12 months almost to the minute since Corey Brown's racing world hit a low. He thought he'd won the every jockey's dream, a Melbourne Cup but was just nosed out on Bauer. But if you thought he'd had troubles, how about Mark Kavanagh. He thought he'd win a Caulfield Cup with Maldivian then the famous barrier incident, however a year later he'd come back and win a Cox Plate. Then this year he had the Derby elect in Shamoline Warrior only for him to succumb race morn. Well Shocking had come via a Brisbane winter when outstayed in the Derby on wet ground. But he was inexperienced. He was considered a Cups horse most of the way but nothing was falling into place as he kept running into Alcopop seeking to get into the Caulfield Cup. But that never happened and focus turned to Flemington. The Lexus win on Derby day was emphatic and made him one of the favourites – then barrier 21 came out. What could Brown do about that? Very little so it worked out. Changingoftheguard came out in the morning controversially as Alcopop became the punter's pal. Warringah set up the speed with Roman Emperor nearby but Shocking was trapped three wide the entire. It was slow early which helped his cause as McEvoy rode the Godolphin entrant Crime Scene superbly. Into the straight and as McEvoy moved out, Brown still had something left. He ranged alongside and grabbed the overseas horse in the final furlong with another staying on for third. There were so many sidelight stories as Brown had been on Vigor but he failed to gain a start as those connections played a risky game. He had asked Kav to wait to see if he was available and he did. When asked how long he's been trying to win a Melbourne Cup, Kav said “I'm 52 – since I was 6. Everyone be quiet – if this is a dream I don't want to wake up.”

• 2010 – AMERICAIN 5h (Dynaformer x America) (12-1)

Jockey: Gerald Mosse, Trainer: Alain De Royer Dupre

Barrier: 11, Weight: 54.5kg

Gross Time: 3:26.87, 600m Sectional: 36.70

Margin: 3L, Track: Slow, Starters: 23

2nd: Maluckyday (L Nolen-51.0kg), 3rd: So You Think (S Arnold-56.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 126

Crowd: 110,223

The 150th Melbourne Cup was one for the ages. Not often a race lives up to the hype it deserved to but the running of this edition was worthy of the Sesquicentennial renewal. We had several up and comers, horses from France, New Zealand, England, Dubai, Hong Kong, Japan, Ireland plus the best WFA horse we'd seen in many moons. Punters labelled So You Think a good thing and being trained by Bart only meant his tote odds were right with the betting market instead of being way overs. A wet track brought many of the Europeans into the race. One of them was Americain and as we've seen on multiple occasions, running in the Geelong Cup is their best form of attack. It wasn't fast early and Gai's two runners were one, two by the post the first time. Even three wide, Americain had cover but So You Think was fired up and pulling which was no help at his first crack at the two miles. In the straight it looked no betting for the champ but that over-racing brought him undone as Americain swept past him and cleared out. The highly progressive and untapped Maluckyday had won a brilliant Lexus and put two runs back to back to surge home for second. Zipping was fourth for the third time in his career. The win was a true international feast being French trained, Australian owned, Hong Kong based ridden and American bred. He was very well ridden as well with Mosse at his usual self-confident best. “I take my time and press the button at the right time.” So to was De Royer Dupre - “I was very confident.” It truly was Tres Bein.

RACE PROFILE

o There have been five multiple winners – Archer (1861+62), Peter Pan (1932+34), Rain Lover (1968+69), Think Big (1974-75) & Makybe Diva (2003+04+05).

o Eleven horses have done the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double – Poseidon (1906), The Trump (1937), Rivette (1939), Rising Fast (1954), Even Stevens (1962), Galilee (1966), Gurner's Lane (1982), Let's Elope (1991), Doriemus (1995), Might and Power (1997) & Ethereal (2001).

o Of the last 18 winners, 11 have won their last start and 7 were defeated of which 3 were placed. Only Viewed, Efficient, Makybe Diva '03 and Jezabeel when knocked down at Caulfield were unplaced.

o Highest weight to win – Carbine 65.5kg in 1890.

o Shortest price to win – Phar Lap 11-8 on – 1930.

o Barriers have been of little importance with the 900m run to the first turn. Since 1988 Kingston Rule drew 1, Might and Power 2, Saintly 3, Media Puzzle 3 as well as Empire Rose 20, Doriemus 21, Rogan Josh 21, Brew 23.

o Leading Trainers - Bart Cummings (12), Etienne de Mestre (5), Lee Freedman (5).

o Leading Jockeys – Bobbie Lewis (4), Harry White (4).

o Winners by Age – 3yo x 23, 4yo x 43, 5yo x 43, 6yo x 29, 7yo x 10, 8yo+ x 2.

o By comparison with the Caulfield Cup, only seven 4yos have won at Flemington in the last 27 years.

o First Female Trainer to win – Sheila Laxon – Ethereal 2001

o First Million Dollar race – What a Nuisance 1985.

o While horses like Might and Power made all the running and Delta Blues was on pace, most recent winners have been well and truly in the second half of the field.

o Mare victories are a conundrum. They have won 5 of the last 11 and 7 of the last 21 Cups but that isn't the norm. Before Empire Rose in 1988 you had to go back to Light Fingers in 1965.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner – 6yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner – 54.0kg

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <9-12> - 4 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner – 12-1

o Breakdown of winners – 2 geldings, 4 mares & 4 entires

o Last 10 Years Turnbull Stks / Melbourne Cup double – Makybe Diva ('05)

o Last 10 Years Geelong Cup / Melbourne Cup double – Americain ('10), Media Puzzle ('02)

o Last 10 Years Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup double – Ethereal ('01)

o Last 10 Years Sydney Cup / Melbourne Cup double – Makybe Diva ('04)

o Last 10 Years Cox Plate / Melbourne Cup double – Makybe Diva ('05)

o Last 10 Years Lexus / Melbourne Cup double – Shocking ('09)

o Last 10 Years BMW Stks / Melbourne Cup double – Makybe Diva ('05)

o Last 10 Years Brisbane Cup / Melbourne Cup double – Viewed ('08)

o Last 10 Years Qld Oaks / Melbourne Cup double – Ethereal ('01)

SUMMARY & SELECTIONS

This looms as one of the best betting Cups in a long time. Not so much because many punters know the form but exactly the opposite given all the international interest.

It is the tieing in of the form through all the European races and how they will react to racing in a big 24 horse field. The track surely will be at best about a Dead 4 which will suit most of them.

It will be a charge early because the overseas horses love pace on. They'd prefer it a staying test. But what that means is that backmarkers get their chance and many Cup winners come from a margin away as Americain did in 2010.

Think you have to trust the Geelong Cup form yet again. Dunaden has exactly the same formlines as Americain last year.

He carried the same weight there and gets the same weight including the penalty at Flemington.

Being a disciple of Alain de Royer-Dupre, Mikel Delzangles looks to have followed exactly the same process to the letter.

He has run in similar lead ups including the Kergorlay and while not as impressive in that race, his Geelong Cup win was as good.

The jockey switch, or potential thereof, is some issue not that Lemaire is in anyway a poor jockey. But Craig Williams had had the run on him and knew what was happening.

Ironically we look to a former Epsom Derby runner up in At First Sight for the main danger. Lloyd Williams team have been firing most of the Spring and this bloke had a break due to an problem.

Given the time off following the Naturalism, he charged home in Bendigo Cup and using the form reference of Tanby through other Spring runners, he will run a great race with the 52.5kg.

Only issue might be he hasn't won since his maiden at Gowran Park.

Godolphin holds a few aces here with both Lost In The Moment and Modun.

The former was desperately unlucky in the Goodwood Cup and has form therefore against the likes of Fox Hunt, Manighar, Red Cadeaux and was not far away in the Ebor which ties in with other contenders.

This stable have gone close to winning this race on several occasions with the second stringer and that is probably how they think here given McEvoy is on Modun.

And of that horse he brings in a good effort on the All Weather at Kempton. That was under the care of Sir Michael Stoute and being bought to win this, he was obviously identified early.

Interestingly he is a half brother to Saptapadi (in this race) and Patkai who was a good stayer just under G1 level.

These mile and a quarter/mile and a half horses are better suited than the marathon stayers.

No knock on Americain at all but he has to carry 58kg and while he is a darn good stayer, is he a champion which is needed to lump that?

Selection: (3) DUNADEN

Hardest to Beat: (17) AT FIRST SIGHT

Best Roughie: (15) LOST IN THE MOMENT & (16) MODUN