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History says the Caulfield Guineas winner will be in action this weekend, but it might not be in the race that most are expecting.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Unbeaten Sydney colt Pierro , an odds-on favourite for the $1 million Guineas at Caulfield on October 13, makes his Victorian debut in the G2 Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday night.
However it is Sunday's Guineas Prelude at Caulfield that should be looked on as the definitive guide to the Guineas in recent times.
Six of the past seven Guineas winners have come through the Guineas Prelude and the one that didn't – Weekend Hussler in 2008 – still ran the day after the AFL Grand Final, which is the slot this year's Prelude occupies.
Traditionally run earlier in September, a programming quirk means this year's Prelude has been put back to the Grand Final weekend, resulting in it being run on the same weekend as the Stutt Stakes for the first time.
This year provides a 13-day lead-in to the Guineas which is eight days longer than what Helmet enjoyed when he completed the Prelude-Guineas double last year.
Anacheeva also completed the double in 2010 and Wonderful World claimed both races in 2006.
While history suggests the Guineas winner will be in action on Sunday, it cannot be denied that Pierro has crafted a record clearly superior to any runner in the Preulde.
He is unbeaten in seven starts, including last season's Juvenile Triple Crown of the Golden Slipper-Sires Produce-Champagne Stakes and he won his only start as a three-year-old when he resumed in the Run To The Rose over 1200m at Rosehill.
If there is a doubt hanging over Pierro it is the challenge of racing second up over 1600m at his first start outside Sydney.
If he can overcome these obstacles the son of Lonhro will become the first Sydney horse to win the Stutt Stakes since Viscount in 2001.
In the past two decades no horse has won the Stutt Stakes (formerly known as the Moonee Valley Stakes) off one lead up run.
And horses jumping from 1200m to 1600m haven't made a habit of winning the race either, with only Churchill Downs, a protest winner in 2006, the only horse since 2000m to succeed coming off a 1200m run.
The Listed Henry Bucks Stakes over 1400m at Flemington on Makybe Diva Stakes Day is the proven form reference for the Stutt Stakes.
Eight of the past 13 Stutt winners have come through that race, including the past three. The winner Jimando and Adjuster are the only two horses engaged in this year's Stutt progressing from the Henry Bucks.
The Stutt Stakes might be the most anticipated race of Grand Final weekend but the most prestigious is the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes on Sunday's Caulfield card.
The 1400m event is the first leg of Caulfield's big sprinter-miler double which concludes with the G1 Toorak Handicap over 1600m on October 13.
The G3 Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m) that was run at Flemington on Makybe Diva Stakes Day provides the perfect lead-in to Victoria's only 1400m Group 1 handicap and has proven the key Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes lead up race over the years.
Bon Hoffa (2007) is the only horse to complete the Bobbie Lewis-Sir Rupert Clarke double since 1983 but he is one of four horses who won the Sir Rupert Clarke after a top five finish in the Bobbie Lewis in the past five years.
Bobbie Lewis winner We're Gonna Rock will attempt to uphold that form line this year as the only top five placegetter from the Bobbie Lewis engaged. However Smokin Joey, Shanghai Warrior and Instinction all ran well enough in the Bobbie Lewis to be well regarded in the Sir Rupert Clarke.
We're Gonna Rock will carry 55.5kg, a task as 17 of the past 20 winners have carried no more than that handicap. Only last year's winner Toorak Toff (56.5kg), Cut Up Rough (57kg, 1997) and Testa Rossa (58.5kg, 2000) have bucked the trend.
Wide barriers are not a drawback as half of the past 16 winners have started from double-digit barriers including three from gate 15, which is where the favoured Moment Of Change will start this year.
Damien Oliver and Craig Williams are the dominant jockeys.
Oliver celebrated his first G1 win in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes on Submariner in 1990 and has won the race a further five times.
Williams has won four of the past seven runnings including the past two.
Oliver has the ride aboard topweight Glass Harmonium, while Williams will partner That's The One.