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The Sydney to Hobart fleet is bracing for a fast start, a wild first night at sea and the high chance of boats ending up damaged.
The Sydney to Hobart race record might not be the only thing broken this year as the fleet braces for wild weather that could cause serious damage to the big-money yachts.
Tuesday's race briefing forecast a fast start in north-easterly winds and beautiful Sydney sunshine for Boxing Day, when the 79th bluewater classic begins at 1pm local time.
But the 105 boats sailing 628NM to Hobart will find their fortunes change overnight as strong to gale force winds are expected from the south west in the always difficult Bass Strait.
There, the fleet could face a thunderstorm and the possibility of 40 knots - almost 75km/h - of wind.
By that point in the race, the four supermaxi yachts vying for line honours should be into the Bass Strait so will face the brunt of the wild weather.
It is inevitable boats of all sizes will retire in any Hobart race but instances of irremediable damage are expected to be higher this year.
"These conditions are probably the worst forecast I've ever had to go through. The odds of boat damage are obviously very high," said Christian Beck, skipper of reigning line honours champion LawConnect.
The fast start and blustery conditions will make for an exciting tussle among the supermaxis, and the possibility of a time quicker than the current record: one day, nine hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds set by Master Lock Comanche, then LDV Comanche, in 2017.
As it stands, Comanche expects to reach Hobart's Constitution Dock in around one day 10 hours, but will reassess that expectation as the forecast off the Tasmanian coast becomes clearer.
Breaking the record is not high on the priority list for her two new co-skippers, though.
"The conditions look like (breaking the record) could be a possibility," said co-skipper James Mayo.
"But for us, we don't focus on that. Our job is to get there in one piece, get the boat there in one piece and hopefully get there first. But focusing on (the record) is not a priority for us."
Comanche is right to take a safety-first approach; in wild weather, a super-maxi's greatest strength - its size, speed and power - can quickly become a dangerous weakness.
Losing control of a boat that weighs 31 tonnes and can travel faster than 70km/h is a terrifying prospect.
"The bigger boats are more complex and the loads are bigger," said Comanche co-skipper Matt Allen.
"Our boat is the most powerful boat out there so the loads are higher. We just need to make sure that things don't break or that we can control.
"Often when you do get breakage on the boat, it sort of multiplies."
To make things more difficult, crews are less experienced handling the kind of wild conditions expected.
"People don't sail in these conditions very regularly so you're just not quite sure which bit's going to hang together and which bit's not and the speeds are going to be pretty fast," Allen said.
"It's going to be challenging."
Two-time Hobart winner-turned-weather technology expert Craig Smith said it was difficult to determine which of the smaller boats would fare best in the conditions forecast.
Mini-maxi URM Group, TP52 Caro and reigning champion Alive are among the favourites for the Tattersall Cup as the fastest boat on handicap.
But Smith would not rule out the possibility of the line honours winner also claiming an overall victory - something that has happened only six times in the race's history.
"It's hard to know (who will do best on handicap)," said Smith, now an expert for weather app PredictWind.
"For me right now, the big guys could get the double. It just depends how they manage that sea state and get out of the blocks.
"If they can keep it together, it could be around that one day, six hours to one day, ten hours time for those guys."