Betfair Hub: Expert Soccer Tips - EPL Round 12

3 minute read

Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.

Leicester v Chelsea

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.65

This should be a straight forward win for Chelsea. They were right back in the groove and flying and now the wheels have sort of fallen off in their past five games with just one win. They drew with Forest, then lost to Liverpool, beat Newcastle, and their most recent two games were both 1-1 draws with Manchester United and Arsenal.

They are in third place on the table. They have a record of 5-4-2 this season and it is those draws stopping them being above Manchester City, along with a poor last five games. Leicester have conceded first in 4/5 home matches and they have lost the first half in 3/5 home matches and if that happens again, there will be no way back as Chelsea will run riot. Looking at the Head to Head Leicester are 1-3-4 and that win was in season 2020/21. They have lost four of the past five meetings with a 1-1 draw in the middle of those five games. The scores were 1-3, 1-2, 1-1, 0-3 and 1-2 so they have scored in four of them.

Chelsea are way too short to back at $1.57 and I see Leicester scoring at home as they have done in all five home games this season. I am getting on Both Teams to Score here but there is no real value in the game with Over 2.5 $1.60 and Chelsea $1.58 so the Both Teams to Score is the best of a bad bunch.

Arsenal v Nottingham Forest

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) Arsenal for 3 units @ $1.37

Despite the enormous season Forest are having, nothing would compare to them beating Arsenal at the Gunners home. The earthquake would be so big, it would be felt in Australia. The title race is done for Arsenal. Don't listen to any optimistic fans, it is impossible to win from where they are and it has never been done, and this is certainly not the side to do it. Arsenal have won by two or more goals in 9/14 home matches while Forest have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. But for some incredible stats, check this out.

Both sides are on 19 points. Both have five wins, four draws and two losses. Arsenal have scored 18 and conceded 12, and Forest have scored 15 and conceded 10. The only four Head to Head meetings ended 2-1, 2-1, 0-1 and 5-0. Forest have won three of their past four and Arsenal have two losses and two draws in their past four. To not beat Chelsea, Newcastle, Liverpool or Bournemouth shows the Gunners have massive issues. I have to take them on at a stupid price. And we can cover it with a back of Over 2.5 as I am sure Forest will score, and Arsenal will need two to beat them.

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $ 1.85

Despite the enormous season Forest are having, nothing would compare to them beating Arsenal at the Gunners home. The earthquake would be so big, it would be felt in Australia. The title race is done for Arsenal. Don't listen to any optimistic fans, it is impossible to win from where they are and it has never been done, and this is certainly not the side to do it. Arsenal have won by two or more goals in 9/14 home matches while Forest have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. But for some incredible stats, check this out.

Both sides are on 19 points. Both have five wins, four draws and two losses. Arsenal have scored 18 and conceded 12, and Forest have scored 15 and conceded 10. The only four Head to Head meetings ended 2-1, 2-1, 0-1 and 5-0. Forest have won three of their past four and Arsenal have two losses and two draws in their past four. To not beat Chelsea, Newcastle, Liverpool or Bournemouth shows the Gunners have massive issues. I have to take them on at a stupid price. And we can cover it with a back of Over 2.5 as I am sure Forest will score, and Arsenal will need two to beat them.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $ 1.85

We just have to jump on the goals here. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/9 Aston Villa home matches against bottom-six teams and in 9/16 Palace away matches. In the Head to Head the past four results were 0-5, 3-1, 1-0, 1-3 so it is two wins apiece with plenty of goals. On current form you couldn't see Palace winning's but Villa are in a hole themselves. The past four games for Villa ended 0-2, 1-4, 1-1 and 3-1 and before that they drew 0-0 with Manchester United and 2-2 with Ipswich.

Palace have one win this season, a 1-0 monumental upset against Spurs. Or was it that surprising? They have lost to Fulham, Forest, Liverpool, Everton, West Ham and Brentford, and with Aston Villa in ninth spot, and Palace languishing in 18th, this should see them get back on track.

With a Villa win offering just $1.67 and the Over 2.5 a generous $1.85, I am happy to get on board the overs.

Bournemouth v Brighton

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Brighton for 1 unit @ $3.00

Both clubs are having decent seasons with just four points separating them. It really looks another game for the Over 2.5 as there has been Over 2.5 goals in 8/12 Bournemouth home matches and in 10/13 Brighton away matches against middle-third teams. The two meetings last season ended 3-0 and 1-3 so that helps our case, and the past two Bournemouth games were 2-3 and 2-1. But it is Brighton that confirms the compelling case for the overs with 7/8 games going over. Scores of 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0, 3-2, 2-4 and 2-2 make it impossible to look anywhere else. The first two results in that sequence (the most recent games) were against Manchester City and Liverpool so not only should there be three goals here, there should be a Brighton win.

Having looked at the prices, we can swerve the Over 2.5 at just $1.57 and get on Brighton at $3.00. They have won three of the past four meetings, and kept clean sheets in two of them.The scores were (Bournemouth first) 3-0, 1-3, 0-2 and 0-1. Just no value in the overs here.

Everton v Brentford

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $ 1.90

Hard to make a case for Everton being favourite here at $2.46. They are 16th on 10 points and Brentford have 16 points. Everton have two wins to Brentford's five. They have scored just 10 goals to Brentford's 22 and the only stat they win, is they have conceded 17 goals to Brentford's 22.

The case is made however, when you look at the Head to Head with Everton winning the last three 1-0, 3-1 and 1-0. Goals are rare in Everton games, with recent scores of 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-0, being in stark contrast to the Brentford results of 3-2, 1-2, 4-3, 1-2 and 5-3.

It's a toss up between backing the Over 2.5 and laying Everton and with 44 goals in the 11 Brentford games, and 27 in the 11 Everton games, I am going for the Over 2.5 goals.

Fulham v Wolves

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.85

Fulham are flying in seventh spot and Wolves finally got their first win of the season, beating Southampton and in doing so, sent them back to the foot of the ladder. After losing seven of their first eight games, Wolves showed slight improvement to earn draws with Brighton and Crystal Palace, and then had their win, so they are turning the corner, but slower than the Queen Mary.

Fulham have won their past two, beating Crystal Palace 2-0 and Brentford 2-1 with two injury time goals. Those games followed a 1-1 draw with Everton and two defeats to Aston Villa and Manchester City. Before beating Saints 2-0, Wolves had seven straight games with three or more goals, with the two recent draws ending 2-2. There are three plays to look at here. A Fulham win, Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score as Wolves games saw both score nine games straight before they faved a woeful Southampton. So it becomes about price. Fulham are $1.70, the Over 2.5 is $1.80 and the Both Teams to Score is $1.85 so either of the last two are ok. Let's just get on both scoring as that seems the most likely given results. It has happened in 8/11 Fulham games and 9/11 Wolves games so the price should be around $1.30 making $1.85 incredible value.

Manchester City v Tottenham

Betting Strategy

Back (Correct Score) Any Other Home Win for 1 unit @ $4.60

It would be typical of Spurs to come here and win after losing 1-0 to Crystal Palace and losing to Ipswich. City simply can't afford to let Liverpool gain three points on them here as the gap would go to eight and that would leave them a mountain to climb. A Spurs win however, could move them from 10th to third, so it's all very congested in the middle. They have 16 points and Chelsea in third have just 19, but Spurs are a goal better off. They have in fact scored more goals this season than any other side, the issue is they lose every second week. Their recent record is LWLWLW, so that makes them due for a win. However, Man City have won by two or more goals in 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Spurs have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to top-six teams. Man City have won 7/8 home matches against middle-third teams.

The Head to Head is where it gets interesting. Spurs have won three of the past six meetings, with two losses and a thrilling 3-3 draw last season. Scores were (City first) 2-0, 3-3, 0-1, 4-2, 2-3, 0-1. Only four of the past 10 games saw both teams score, and only five of 10 went Over 2.5 so if you are looking for value, a lay off either those would be enormous if they landed. Both Teams to Score (No) is $3.00 if you think they can hold Spurs out, and the bet I like is for City to win and score four goals in the process. Erling Haaland is coming off a Hat-trick for Norway and I will look at the Any Other Home Win in the Correct Score market. This could get ugly for Spurs.

Southampton v Liverpool

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) No for 2 units @ $2.00

No real value in this game and it is very difficult to find a bet. It is first v last and with Liverpool at $1.33, it is probably better than bank interest to just take 33% on your money in 90 minutes. The Both Teams to Score is even money, and I can easily see Saints not scoring, as they failed against Wolves last time out. Liverpool have won 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Liverpool have scored first in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. In the past eight meetings Liverpool have won six, and lost one. The last meeting was in season 22/23 and it was 4-4. That won't happen here. There may well be eight goals again, but only one side will be scoring them. This season, Saints have kept one clean sheet and Liverpool have kept six in 11 games. They kept five of them in their first seven games and have just started to conceded now. Incredibly they have conceded just six goals this season to the 21 of Southampton. The past five Liverpool results were 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 2-1 and 1-0.

This should be a comfortable away win for Liverpool with a clean sheet, and at even money, that's a good price.

Ipswich v Manchester United

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) Manchester United

Well here we go again. Manchester United have yet another new manager as Ruben Amorim steps up to the plate with his team in 13th place. They have burned through five since Sir Alex Ferguson left, and despite great success at Sporting Lisbon, this is a different universe. Pressure unlike anything he has faced. He starts with an away game to the Tractor Boys in Suffolk and it won't be easy. There is no Head to Head record as most of these players were not born when Ipswich were last in the Premier League.

Like Crystal Palace, Ipswich have won just one game this season, and it was against Spurs. They have managed five draws and five losses along with that win. Both teams have scored in eight of their 11 games, but that's happened in just four of Manchester United's games this season so we can avoid that this week. If we look at recent form and the past six games, four Ipswich games went Over 2.5 and four of Manchester United's last six went over as well.

It's going to take some time to bed in the new man's ways and I think Ipswich at home are a tough team to crack with three draws and just two losses this season. Both were 0-2 results to Liverpool and Everton, and they drew with Fulham, Villa and Leicester and two of those sides are above Manchester United. I am not brave enough to back them to win, but I will keep the draw onside and lay Manchester United.

Newcastle v West Ham

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 4 units @ $1.75

This has goals written all over it. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 7/9 Newcastle home matches against middle-third teams and in 11/12 West Ham away matches against top-half teams. Newcastle are 5-4-1 in the Head to Head and have not lost to the Hammers since season 21/22. Both teams have scored in 9/10 meetings including seven straight games. The past three results were 4-3, 2-2 and 5-1. Seven of the 10 meetings went Over 2.5 goals.

This season in 11 games, West Ham matches went Over 2.5 goals 7/11 which is 64% and a price of $1.57. In those 11 games, 10 had a second half goal. In the Newcastle matches, 10/11 had a first half goal and whilst only five went Over 2.5 goals, seven of the 11 saw both teams score. Same for the West Ham Both Teams to Score outcomes – 7/11 and 64% and $1.57 so to get $1.75 is very good value. We need West Ham to come to the party now.

There are three very straight forward bets here, so I am just taking the best price. I like Newcastle to win ($1.53), Over 2.5 goals $1.63 and Both Teams to Score – Yes ($1.75) so it looks like the winner is the both to score market.

Winner 2024/25

EPL TIPS

The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.

The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.

To ensure you capitalise on the 2023/24 EPL season, be sure to follow Betfair's latest updated expert EPL tips across the entire season. Betfair's analysts provide head-to-head selections, total goals picks, goal scorer tips, advice on which individual players we think will play well, game previews, analysis plus much more!

Recent Winners 

EPL Title:

2023/24: Manchester City

2022/23: Manchester City

2021/22 : Manchester City

2020/21: Manchester City

2019/20: Liverpool

2018/19: Manchester City

2017/18: Manchester City

Check out more of Betfair's sport content including Soccer Tips on the Betfair Hub.