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Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
Newcastle vs Manchester City
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.63
The past 10 meetings between the sides is dismal reading for Newcastle fans. Eight losses and two draws, with the two draws coming way back in season 2019/20 and 2022/23. They have lost the past three games 2-3, 0-1 and 0-2 and have also lost nine of the last 10. This season Newcastle are 3-1-1 with this the biggest test of their season so far. City are 4-1-0 after Arsenal ruined their perfect start and only a last second 97th minute goal saved them from defeat.
All 10 games between these teams have had a first half goal, nine had a second half goal as well, and both teams scored in just four games. Newcastle have managed five goals against them in the past four games, however, all of them came in the two most recent games here at St James Park.
There was a 3-3 draw in Newcastle the season before last and they scored two in the 2-3 loss here last season. In a crushing blow to City's title hopes, Rodri sustained a season ending ACL injury against Arsenal last weekend, and that severely weakens their defence. Rodri was suspended for three games towards the start of last season and City lost them all. Their only defeat in regulation time during the campaign with him in the side came against Manchester United in the FA Cup Final and he was player of the tournament at Euro 24. He should win the Ballon d'Or next month as well. He loss can't be overestimated. Ilkay Gündogan and Rico Lewis are two potential options to play at the base of City's midfield, but it will require a slight change to the set up. City did sign Kalvin Phillips for this replacement role, but it turned out he wasn't up to standard and got loaned to Ipswich. Mateo Kovacic came on as the replacement last weekend.
I am not brave enough to lay City again like last week, but I think we will see both teams score.
Arsenal vs Leicester
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) No for 2 units @ $1.70
All markets here will be heavily weighted toward Arsenal and that will make finding value very tough. The one bit of value I did find is in the Both Teams to Score market and no looks a great price. Arsenal proved themselves to be serious title contenders in the 2-2 draw with City, playing over 60 minutes with 10 men, and that means they just can't lose or draw games like this. They should thoroughly batter Leicester and I tend to think even $1.20 for them to win this is too big.
The Both Teams to Score (no) price is a great place for us to play in this game. Arsenal have won 10/10 home matches against promoted teams and that won't change here. They have conceded just three goals this season and two of them were against City last week and they have kept three clean sheets. I expect a clean sheet here and another home win.
Brentford vs West Ham
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 3 units @ $1.75
A London derby that should produce goals. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 7/12 Brentford home matches and in 10/18 West Ham away matches. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 14/19 Brentford home matches as well. Brentford have won five of the six meetings since they came to the Premier League and the solitary loss was the last meeting, a 4-2 win to West Ham. Before that, the results were 3-2, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0, 2-1. The past four games have all had at least two first half goals. The half time scores were 1-2, 1-2, 2-0 and 2-0.
The Hammers have lost all three of their Premier League visits to Brentford since the Bees were promoted. Bryan Mbeumo has scored three goals in five appearances against West Ham, only scoring more against Tottenham (4).
The best value would be backing Over 1.5 first half goals at $2.80 or take the safer option of Over 2.5 goals in the match at $1.75. As Brentford have scored two goals in five of their last seven meetings with West Ham, we can expect that again and just need one more from either side to land the win. So far, Brentford have two wins and three losses, and West Ham have won just one of five games, so they really need to start performing after the huge money they spent in the off season for the new manager. Lose this and he will be under massive pressure.
It will be a tight match and I can see three goals being the minimum here.
Chelsea vs Brighton
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Chelsea for 2 units @ $1.78
This looks a straight forward win for Chelsea at home. They have scored first in 13/14 home matches while Brighton have lost 9/13 away matches against top-six teams. Brighton have conceded first in 12/19 away matches. Chelsea have won the past two meetings 2-1 and 3-2, but lost the two before that 1-2 and 1-4, and there were three draws before that, 1-1, 1-1, and 0-0.
Chelsea are yet to win at home this season with a loss to Manchester City and a draw with Crystal Palace. Brighton away beat Everton 3-0 and drew with Arsenal 1-1, so that looks the better form.
After watching the performance of Nicolas Jackson last weekend I have to favour Chelsea. He has scored in four of Chelsea's last six Premier League home games (five goals). During their last 15 matches at Stamford Bridge, the Blues have scored over 1.5 goals in 12 of those games.
With Chelsea winning the past two meets, and Jackson in scintillating form, I am going with Chelsea to get all three points here.
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 3 units @ $1.95
There have been Under 2.5 goals in 8/10 Everton home matches against bottom-six teams while Crystal Palace have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. However, this is such a vital game for both sides, I see goals. Palace have conceded first in 10/15 away matches. Looking at the Head to Head past 10, Everton have won five, drawn four and lost just one. The past five has seen two draws and three Everton wins. The five Everton games so far ended 1-1, 2-3, 2-3, 0-4 and 0-3, so there has been plenty of goals. For Palace games, 0-0, 2-2, 1-1, 0-2 and 1-2 were the scores, and they are yet to lead at half time, with two games 0-0 at half time and three 0-1 at the break.
I rate the Over 2.5 at $1.80 and we can get $1.93 on Betfair so that is a real bargain for this game. I didn't think I would get close to $1.80. Everton conceded at least three goals in each of their first four Premier League matches, while scoring two goals in their two games before the 1-1 last time out.
Everton has twice led by two goals and lost, and Crystal Palace came from two goals down to draw with Leicester. Two poor sides and neither can defend. Get on the over.
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Nottingham Forest for 2 units @ $2.40
Forest are the surprise packet this season, and are in eighth place with Fulham in ninth. Fulham have lost 11/16 away matches against top-half teams and they have conceded first in 7/9 such matches. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 7/9 Nottingham Forest home matches against middle-third teams. Forest won the last meeting 3-1 and lost the three before that. The scores were 3-1, 0-5, 0-2 and 2-3, so there are usually a few goals.
Forest are unbeaten after five games, but the goals have been scarce. Scores of 2-2, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 1-1 shows five very tight games. Fulham haven't lost since the opening day against Manchester United, drawing twice along the way. There is a curveball for this game, as Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo won't be on the sideline after his red card at the Amex on Sunday.
They also miss Morgan Gibbs-White after he was sent off against Brighton, while Danilo and Ibrahim Sangare are both injured. Willy Boly is a doubt due to a calf problem. Fulham have no injury concerns and that could swing things. I can see this being a draw and so the toss up is whether to back the draw at $3.50 or lay Forest at $2.40 and have two of three possible outcomes on our side. I will lay Forest as the injuries and a suspended manager make it the better play.
Wolverhampton vs Liverpool
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) No for 2 units @ $2.30
Second place, plays last place. Liverpool should win this game and are in decent form. Wolves have conceded first in 9/13 home matches against top-six teams while Liverpool have won 8/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Liverpool have won by two or more goals in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Liverpool have won 9/10 Head to Head meetings with the one loss a 0-3 reverse two seasons back. The aggregate scores in the 10 games is 19-6, with half of this against in one game, so three goals in the other nine.
We have had two wins on Liverpool this season in the Both Teams to Score (no) market and won them both so I am tempted to go again, as there is no way I see Wolves scoring here. Having said that, they have scored in 4/5 games this season and they are at home, so I am pushing our luck here. They have lost four games though, despite scoring in three of them. It was only Arsenal they didn't score against, going down 0-2.
Only three times in the 10 Head to Head did both teams score, but two of them have been in the past five meetings. Scores were 0-2, 1-3, 0-2, 3-0 and 1-3. Six of Wolves' last eight Premier League home matches have seen over 2.5 goals scored in them so that may be a better option.
Having looked at the price of Over 2.5 goals ($1.50) and the Both Teams to Score (no) price ($2.30), I am taking the chance on Wolves not scoring here.
Ipswich vs Aston Villa
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.75
Ipswich may struggle to get a result here. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 6/8 Aston Villa away matches against promoted teams. Aston Villa have scored first in 9/13 away matches against promoted teams. The Villans have won four of their five league games this season including the past three on the bounce. Ipswich, meanwhile, are still awaiting their first league win since coming back to the Premier League but are unbeaten in three.
Villa have won five of their six games across all competitions this season, scoring at least two goals in five of those six games. However, they have kept just one clean sheet during that run. Jhon Duran has scored in four of his five Premier League appearances this season, despite not starting a single game.
There is no Head to Head to look at as Ipswich have not been in the Premier League in a very long time, so we only have the games played so far this season. Villa won both away games 2-1, so the safest play here, with so many unknowns is either the Over 2.5 goals market or the Both Teams to Score market. The Over 2.5 is $1.82 and the Both Teams to Score (Yes) is $1.75 so not a lot of difference there. Ipswich games so far saw them score three times and concede in four games (from five) and Villa scored in four and conceded in all five.
Only one of the five Ipswich games went Over 2.5 (20%) and in 67% of their games, both teams scored. For Villa both stats are 80%. So the Both Teams to Score makes better statistical sense.
Manchester United vs Tottenham
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $4.00
The score here could be anything. Manchester United have won 12/14 home matches against middle-third teams while Spurs have lost 9/13 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 11/13 Spurs away matches against middle-third teams. Both teams are locked on seven points. Spurs have scored nine goals and conceded five so far (four goals were against Everton) and Manchester United are 5/5 scored/conceded.
Looking at the Head to Head past 10, it is 5-3-2 but the easiest bet of the weekend here is goals. The recent scores between them were 2-2, 0-2, 2-2, 2-0, 3-2, 3-0, 3-1, and 1-6. All 10 games had a second half goal and eight had a first half goal. Both scored in seven games and 7/10 went Over 2.5 making that option a $1.43 chance (based on the 10 games only). When you then combine the results this season for both sides, both go Over 2.5 67% of the time ($1.67) then we get a rated price of $1.59. The price on Betfair is $1.47 so that is not great value. Particularly as only one of the five Manchester United games this season saw both teams score. For Spurs games both scoring is 3/5.
The Over 3.5 price is $2.10 and I rate it around $2.60 so we can't really back that either. Spurs have failed to win seven of their last eight Premier League away games, losing five, with four by a two-goal margin. Their only win was 3-0 against the relegated Sheffield United side last season.
I am going for some value here and looking at the draw. I expect more than two goals, and although none of the Manchester United games this season have had four goals, I expect that to change. So it's the draw or Over 4.5 goals for me, but five goals may be a stretch so the draw it is.
Bournemouth vs Southampton
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Bournemouth for 2 units @ $1.72
Two underperforming sides both desperate for points. In the only four Head to Head games, the scores were 1-0, 0-1, 0-2 and 3-1. Saints have lost both of their away Premier League games this season. They also lost the first two home games and drew their most recent. They have only scored two goals and conceded nine. Bournemouth have conceded in all five games and the total number conceded is eight and they have scored just four goals. They have one win, two draws and two losses, so both will see this as a must win and very much needed three points.
Bournemouth will find this a lot easier than recent losses to Chelsea and Liverpool and being at home, I am confident they can add more misery to the Southampton camp. It will likely be low scoring and I suggest a small back of Bournemouth or even 2-0 and 2-1 in the Correct Score market. In three of the four Head to Head meetings, only one side scored.
Winner 2024/25
| Runner | Back | Lay |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | $2.56 | $2.58 |
| Arsenal | $2.7 | $2.72 |
| Liverpool | $6.6 | $6.8 |
| Chelsea | $25 | $26 |
| Newcastle | $190 | $200 |
| Man Utd | $80 | $85 |
EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
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Recent Winners
EPL Title:
2023/24: Manchester City
2022/23: Manchester City
2021/22 : Manchester City
2020/21: Manchester City
2019/20: Liverpool
2018/19: Manchester City
2017/18: Manchester City