3 minute read
The clash of Aston Villa and Man City heads an intriguing pre-Xmas round of matches. Between them these sides have won just at three of their last ten, so anything short of three points puts a massive dent on their aspirations.
Brentford v Forest, Man U v Bournemouth, and Spurs v Liverpool are other crucial fixtures as the congestion between 3rd and 13th tries to sort itself out.
Wolves and Southampton go into the round with caretaker managers after the sackings of O'Neil and Martin. They have precious little time to gets their houses in order as the likes of Leicester, Everton, and Palace pull further away from the drop zone.
ASTON VILLA v MANCHESTER CITY
History: Villa famously toppled City 1-0 in the corresponding fixture last season. It was, however, the only time Villa has picked up three points in the last nine seasons in this match-up. City has won 16 of the past 20 EPL clashes.
Overview: Villa succumbed to a late Forest comeback last weekend, adding to their plain record after midweek Champions League commitments. Interestingly, Villa has won six and drawn one of eight games when they have no midweek matches, the only loss an unlucky 2-0 result against Arsenal in Round 2. They sit precariously in 7th but can dip as low as 13th with a loss here. They meet City at the perfect time and the result here last season when the champions were airborne gives them some hope.
The horror show continued for Man City last weekend when they surrendered a lead late in the second half to eventually lose to their fierce crosstown rival. It was their 8th defeat in the past 11 in all competitions and sees them blow out to an astonishing 17.00 in some markets to win the league. News that Rodri may return earlier than expected is a silver lining, but a loss here would certainly put the final nail in the coffin of their title hopes. A win, however, could see them back in the top four and within sight of Liverpool and Chelsea, particularly if things don't go their way this weekend.
Suggested bet: No bet.
BRENTFORD v NOTTINGHAM FOREST
History: These teams have met four times since Forest's return to the top-flight. Both games at the Gtech have been won by Brentford; the two at the City Ground ended in draws.
Overview: Brentford came back strongly in the second half of their clash with Chelsea last weekend, missing a couple of great chances at 1-0 down and again at 2-1 behind. It was a spirited effort by a side not renowned for its away form. Back at the Gtech we should see some fireworks. Only West Ham has left west London with a point this season, the Bees winning the other seven games and scoring a remarkable 25 goals along the way.
Forest's brilliant campaign continued last weekend when they came from behind to defeat Villa 2-1 at home. Recent wins at Anfield and Old Trafford have belied their away form of recent seasons. Nuno's side possesses the attacking flair to trouble any team, and the self-belief to turn a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 win in the space of seven minutes against the Villains shows a maturity that might see them go all the way to Europe this season. This road trip, however, is a massive challenge.
Suggested bet: Brentford to win and both teams to score: 1 unit at $4.00.
IPSWICH v NEWCASTLE
History: The only recent meetings were in the 2016/17 Championship season. Spoils were shared with the home side winning comfortably on each occasion.
Overview: Luck went Ipswich's way when they snatched a 94th minute winner at Molineaux to end a run of three losses. It also added to a respectable away record this season – they have collected eight points and scored ten goals on the road, against no wins and six goals at home. Kieran McKenna's side is now within sight of safety, and a win here might see them above the dotted line.
Newcastle completely outclassed Leicester last weekend in a 4-0 romp, with keeper Nick Pope barely troubled. Their away form continues to be of concern and is the reason they languish in the bottom half of the table. A surprise 3-1 win at Forest is the only result of note away from St James' Park this season. This is a must-win clash if the Magpies are to keep in touch with the European spots.
Suggested bet: No bet.
WEST HAM v BRIGHTON
History: Brighton has been a real bogey team for the Hammers. Since the Seagulls' arrival in the top-flight, they have won six of the 14 clashes, with seven drawn. Things swung a little West Ham's way last season as they scored a rare win on the south coast and drew 0-0 at the London Stadium.
Overview: West Ham's first 30 minutes at Bournemouth on Monday evening was some of their best football of the season. Bournemouth clicked up a gear after the break and would have won save for some remarkable saves from veteran keeper Fabianski. Four points from the last two games has loosened the noose around Lopetegui's neck, but this and a midweek trip to Southampton are make or break.
Brighton has lost all momentum in the past three weeks. A home fixture against despised rivals Palace should have stoked the fire in their belly, but it was another sub-standard display, particularly in defence. Palace never score three goals on the road, so it was definitely a warning sign that things must improve or their brilliant start to the season was all for nothing.
Suggested bet: Draw: 1 unit at $3.60.
CRYSTAL PALACE v ARSENAL
History: Arsenal has dominated in the last two season, winning all four matches by an aggregate of 12-1. The Gunners edged out Palace 3-2 in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday evening.
Overview: Palace produced its best performance of the season to easily put away Brighton 3-1 on the south coast last weekend. That result made it just one loss in their last nine in all competitions. They return to Selhurst Park where recent results read very well – a win over Spurs and draws with Newcastle and Man City the highlights. The Eagles bowed out of the Carabao Cup midweek at the hands of Arsenal. Despite owning just 28% of possession Palace managed to score twice against a classy defensive unit.
The Gunners' midweek win in the Cup came on the back of a hat trick from the maligned Gabriel Jesus. It ended a long drought of goals from open play against EPL opposition and gives Arteta something to think about for this quick return bout. Arsenal has won just one of their last five league games away from the Emirates so this is going to be a test. With six points to make up on Liverpool, who has a game in hand, anything but the maximum here would be disastrous.
Suggested bet: Arsenal to win and total match goals to be 2-4: 2 units at $2.50.
EVERTON v CHELSEA
History: Not a struck match between them. In the past four seasons it has been three wins apiece and two draws. Everton has lost just one of the past seven against Chelsea at Goodison.
Overview: Everton is flying under the radar a bit, losing just twice in their last 11 matches and keeping six clean sheets in that time. They never seriously looked like scoring against Arsenal last week but ground out a precious draw. Desperate blocking and precision defending at set pieces paved the way, along with some heroics from Pickford who is impenetrable at times. They are three clear of danger but face a horrid run of fixtures over the next month.
Chelsea registered its fifth straight win in the league and consolidated second spot with a tough win over a defiant Brentford at Stamford Bridge most recently. The Blues have scored 37 goals in the 15 games since their only failure to find the net this season on opening day – this is easily the best attacking record in the league. On the flip side there has only been one clean sheet since match week five, but it is not in the Chelsea DNA to sit back and protect leads. Everton has a job on its hands stemming the tide.
Suggested bet: No bet.
FULHAM v SOUTHAMPTON
History: Southampton dominated this match-up until their last season in the Premiership in 22/23 – Fulham took maximum points in that campaign.
Overview: Fulham led 1-0 when Liverpool was reduced to ten men at Anfield last weekend, so coming away with just a point is probably bittersweet for Marco Silva. The Cottagers showed once again that they are not intimidated by big-name opposition and created a lot of good chances in an entertaining encounter. Except for a 1-0 loss on opening day to Man U, Fulham has scored in every match this campaign which means they are usually competitive. Their last home defeat was a shock 1-4 result at the hands of Wolves – Silva will be sure to instil in his players that there is no such thing as a certainty in this league.
The Saints were deplorable on the opening 45 at home last weekend, going to sheds 5-0 down to Tottenham and in doing so signing manager Russell Martin's death warrant. A better second-half display was inevitable, but it was too little too late. One point from a possible 18 of late roots them firmly at the bottom. Away from St Marys Southampton has picked up one point in eight games, with a for and against of 4-15.
Suggested bet: Fulham to lead at half-time and full-time: 2 units at $2.20.
LEICESTER v WOLVES
History: Leicester firmly held the advantage in the five seasons prior to their relegation in 22/23, winning five and drawing three of the ten encounters.
Overview: Despite a win and a draw in the first two games under Van Nistelrooy, we suggested last week there were significant cracks in Leicester and Newcastle exposed them at St James. The 4-0 scoreline could have been worse and showed that defence is clearly the Foxes' Achilles. Just the one clean sheet this season and the third worst defence in the league, albeit six better than today's rival.
Wolves drew level in the second half then conceded in the dying stages to suffer an unacceptable home loss at the hands of Ipswich, a defeat which saw the whistle blown on Gary O'Neil's tenure. There is a stack of talent going forward in this side and they can stretch even the best defences, but at the back they are shambolic at times. A new manager in the ilk of Allardyce or Moyes is needed to tie them up at the back, then the results may flow.
Expecting a few goals in this one.
Suggested bet: Over 2.5 match goals: 4 units at $1.66.
MANCHESTER UTD v BOURNEMOUTH
History: Bournemouth stunned Man U 3-0 at Old Trafford last season, their only win in eleven visits to the famous ground and just their fourth in 22 meetings in all competitions.
Overview: Man U looked destined for a third straight defeat when a goal down in the 87th minute at the Etihad last weekend. A stonewall penalty then a deft finish from Amad sealed a remarkable turnaround and gave Amorim his first significant result in charge. His decision to leave Rashford and Mainoo out of the squad was brave and, in the end, justified. He will in time stamp his brand on this team, which doesn't have the cattle to match the top three or four teams consistently at the moment. I get the feeling bad results are always just around the corner.
Bournemouth looked uncharacteristically sluggish in the first half at home to West Ham but sprang to life after the break. Fabianski's brilliance prevented the Cherries from collecting a fourth straight win, but they remain in the European qualification spots. Along with Forest they are the surprise packets of 24/25 and can maintain the momentum. They won't hold back against a Man U side that, although glowing after last week's big escape, are far from settled.
Suggested bet: Double chance - Bournemouth to win or a Draw: 2 units at $2.00.
TOTTENHAM v LIVERPOOL
History: Spurs won 2-1 at home last season, their first success in 12 matches dating back to 2017. Liverpool has found the net in their last 19 games against Tottenham.
Overview: It would be nice to know in advance which Tottenham is showing up. They were relentless in the first half at Southampton last weekend and before the break at home to Chelsea the week before, but only scored once after half-time in those two games. The success at St Marys ended a run of five without a win and eased pressure on Ange. This is a massive test for his side, whose highline defending will have the Reds salivating.
Liverpool showed champion's qualities to come from a goal and a man down to share the points with Fulham at Anfield. Since Arne Slot's arrival the Reds have failed to score just once in 23 games but have managed 12 clean sheets. The squad depth was on show midweek when a second-string side advanced them to the semi-finals of the Carabao Cup with a win over Southampton. No team is better than scoring goals from their own half, and this is how they may take Spurs down.
Suggested bet: Liverpool to win and both teams to score: 2 units at $2.50.