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Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
EVERTON V WOLVES
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Everton for 2 units @ $2.20
My first thought was I can't see anything but a low scoring draw here, probably 0-0. There have been Under 2.5 goals in 8/11 Everton home matches against bottom-six teams while Wolves have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Wolves have conceded first in 10/12 away matches. Neither side can afford to lose and Everton are only two points clear of the relegation zone. A win for either side would be huge. Then I saw the Wolves results and saw nine of their past 10 all went Over 2.5 goals, and their past two had six goals and five goals.
It doesn't look great for Everton fans as Head to Head, Wolves have won five of the past six meetings with one draw. Last season Everton lost 0-3 and 0-1. In the last 10 meetings, both scored five times, six went Over 2.5 goals, seven had a first half goal and all 10 had a second half goal.
This season Everton are 2-5-6 and have drawn three of their past five, losing the other two. Wolves lost seven of their first eight games, but have now found some form. They beat Southampton 2-0 and Fulham 4-1, before losing 2-4 to Bournemouth on the weekend. I find it very odd Everton are so short with Wolves coming good and scoring a lot of goals. The past six results for Wolves were 2-4, 4-1, 2-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-2 and 3-5. I could happily take Wolves to win this, but Everton at home with Sean Dyche as manager are hard to beat. They lost their first two home games, but are unbeaten in the other four, winning one and drawing three, but we can lay Everton here and keep the draw onside. Wolves are great value at $3.70 though.
MANCHESTER CITY V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 4 units @ $1.65
When will the nightmare end for Pep and his not so merry men. Once again in a huge game, Erling Haaland was unsighted, and the better defensive teams have no trouble keeping him at bay. City lost the title when Rodri went crashing to the turf against Arsenal and was out for the season. They rarely lose when he is in the side, and they are now winless in seven matches. They really should win this and they certainly need it to stop the rot. City have won 8/10 home matches while Forest have had L/L double results in 8/11 away matches against top-six teams. Forest have lost 9/11 away matches against top-six teams. It's incredible to think City are on 23 points and Forest are on 22. City have lost four games to the three of Forest, yet Forest are 8/1 to win this game and City are $1.38.
Head to Head it is three City wins and one draw. the scores were 2-0, 2-0, 1-1 and 6-0. The form book is a disaster for City. Losses to Liverpool (0-2), Tottenham (0-4), Brighton (1-2) and Bournemouth (1-2) and two of those sides are below Forest on the ladder. Also, Forest have won four of their past six games. Five of the six City home games went Over 2.5 goals as did three of the past four Forest away games. The best option here is going small on Over 2.5 goals or laying City, but they really should bounce back here.
NEWCASTLE V LIVERPOOL
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Liverpool for 3 units @ $1.85
Liverpool are flying at the top with a nine point gap to Arsenal and Chelsea, and won't want to drop points here in the lead up to Christmas. Gaps can close quickly in the congested Christmas – New Year period. Newcastle have won 8/12 home matches against top-six teams, so this is a risky game for the Reds and Newcastle have scored first in 13/20 home matches. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 10/13 Liverpool away matches against middle-third teams. The Head to Head is a train wreck for Magpies fans, with eight losses (the last six) and two draws (season 20/21). The past four were 2-4, 1-2, 0-2 and 1-2, so they can score, but struggle to win.
The table speaks for itself and to see the league leaders at $1.85 and the Over 2.5 goals at just $1.65 makes this an easy call. The past four Newcastle home results were 0-2, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 and Liverpool away saw five wins and a draw. To be fair, Liverpool have had a very easy away run this season so far, beating Southampton 3-2, drawing 2-2 with Arsenal, beat Crystal Palace 1-0, Wolves 2-1, Manchester United 3-0 and Ipswich 2-0, so they have a lot of hard away games to come. So maybe the title talk is premature. They will win this though.
SOUTHAMPTON V CHELSEA
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 3 units @ $1.82
Not a lot of value in this game as the market expects Chelsea to run riot. I agree that they could well do, and whilst I think they will win and win comfortably, I can't be backing them at $1.36. The only real interest and potential value is if we can convince ourselves Southampton can score. Taking a look at the likelihood of that happening, we see that there is no value in the Over 2.5 goals. That's because there has been Over 2.5 goals in 8/8 Chelsea away matches against bottom-six teams. So it seems a given that it will go over again. In the eight Head to Head meetings before Southampton were relegated, they actually won the last two meetings, 1-0 and 2-1. That shows how bad Chelsea were in season 22/23. Saints scored in six of those eight meetings. They won three, lost three and had two draws.
Saints have scored in four of their past six league games, and have scored in their past four home games. If they can get just one goal here for us, we don't care how many Chelsea get as long as they get one. I see the only real value in the game in the Both Teams to Score market so that's where we will go.
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER UNITED
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 2 units @ $5.00
Manchester United could jump from 9th to 6th with a win here, depending on the outcome for Tottenham, Brentford and Nottingham Forest. Arsenal can close the gap from nine points to six on Liverpool if they were to somehow lose at Newcastle. But that won't happen. The best they can do here is win and try to not let the gap get any worse. This could be tricky as United have a new manager and Arsenal won't yet know how they will set up. But it should be a routine home win. Arsenal have won 7/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Man Utd have lost 10/14 away matches against top-six teams.
I can see Arsenal winning again, as they have done in 4/5 of the previous meetings. The past six meetings ended 1-0, 3-1, 3-2, 1-3, 3-1, 2-3. So five of the past six meetings had four or more goals. The past three Arsenal games ended 5-2, 3-0 and 1-1 and the past three United games ended 4-0, 1-1 and 3-0 so they have found some form. The draw is incredible value at $5.00 and it is a choice between Over 3.5 goals or the draw, and with four goals or more paying just $2.70, I am going with a draw.
ASTON VILLA V BRENTFORD
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 5 units @ $1.63
This looks a straight forward Both Teams to Score game. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 7/10 Aston Villa home matches and Over 2.5 goals in 12/16 Aston Villa home matches. Brentford have scored first in 9/11 away matches against middle-third teams. They have been doing it very early in the half as well. The Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score are both the same price and both should land easily. There are six meetings to look at in the Head to Head and they ended 3-3, 2-1, 1-1, 4-0, 1-2 and 1-1, so five of the six saw both score and four of six went Over 2.5 goals.
In 13 matches this season for Villa, 9/13 saw both score which is 69% or $1.44 and away games for Brentford saw both score in 11/13 games for a whopping 85% or $1.18. The fact we can get $1.63 when it should be about $1.30 is a great value play. To be thorough, if we just look at Villa home games, both scored in 4/6 which is 67% or $1.50 and it is exactly the same for Brentford away with 4/6, so $1.63 is still better than $1.50. Happy to take that.
FULHAM V BRIGHTON
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 4 units @ $1.67
This is one of those games where you can't get enough on the Over 2.5 goals. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/8 Fulham home matches against top-six teams and in 7/8 Brighton away matches against middle-third teams. That is 15/16 between them and the market is letting us on at $1.67 when it is really a 93% chance (on those stats) or $1.07. Head to Head past six we can see why we get that price. Scores of 3-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-0 and 0-0 tell a different story. But they are a while ago.
This season just 6/13 Fulham games went over and it is 9/13 for Brighton. However, when we just look at Fulham home results, the six games ended 1-4, 2-1, 1-3, 3-1, 1-1 and 2-1, so we have 5/6 going over and 6/6 both teams scoring. Away games for Brighton, saw 4/6 go Over 2.5 goals and 4/6 had both scoring. Far better stats. The angles here are back Over 2.5 goals, back Both Teams to Score or lay Fulham as I don't see them winning. The Both Teams to Score praise is $1.60 and the Over 2.5 goals is $1.67 so let's go with that. Otherwise laying Fulham at $2.50 is the same as backing the other two outcomes at $1.66 so they are all about the same price.
BOURNEMOUTH V TOTTENHAM
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Tottenham for 2 units @ $2.56.
Which Tottenham team will turn up? The one that beat City 4-0, or the one that lost to Palace and Ipswich 1-0? Spurs have lost 66% of games against middle third teams. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 9/13 Bournemouth home matches and in 13/15 Spurs away matches against middle-third teams. Spurs have lost 10/15 away matches against middle-third teams, so this could be another loss. Head to Head past six, Spurs have won four of them. The three games at Bournemouth ended 0-2, 2-3, and 0-0 so Spurs like coming here.
The Both Teams to Score is just $1.44 and the Over 2.5 goals is $1.48 so I am going for another hiccup for Tottenham and will lay them at $2.56. They are just too inconsistent and no amount of analysis can predict what they do on the day. I think Bournemouth can get a result here. This season at home, they have won three of their past four games, and Spurs have won just two of six away from home.
WINNER 2024/25
| Runner | Back | Lay |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | $1.67 | $1.68 |
| Arsenal | $3.9 | $3.95 |
| Man City | $10 | $11.5 |
| Chelsea | $20 | $22 |
| Tottenham | $240 | $400 |
| Man Utd | $190 | $250 |
| Newcastle | $830 | $1000 |
| Brighton | $450 | $590 |
| Aston Villa | $1000 | - |
| Nottm Forest | $1000 | - |
| Crystal Palace | $1000 | - |
| Bournemouth | $1000 | - |
| Brentford | $1000 | - |
| Fulham | $1000 | - |
| Wolves | $1000 | - |
| West Ham | $1000 | - |
| Everton | $1000 | - |
| Leicester | $1000 | - |
| Southampton | $1000 | - |
| Ipswich | $1000 | - |
EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
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Recent Winners
EPL Title:
2023/24: Manchester City
2022/23: Manchester City
2021/22 : Manchester City
2020/21: Manchester City
2019/20: Liverpool
2018/19: Manchester City
2017/18: Manchester City
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